I don’t really disagree with anything you said.
But while there may not be tons of 3.5’s applying to highly selective schools, there actually still are plenty of 3.7’s and 3.8’s, especially in a test option environment. And when they have a hook, they get in.
My high school got 3 into Yale this year… 1 of the 3 is a mid-level HS achiever, ranked in the bottom half of the class, GPA around 3.5… But had the hook of being an athlete. Lots of 3.7s and 3.8s still apply, crossing their fingers, hoping their ECs or essays somehow provide some sort of hook. For example, I just peeked at the 2021-2022 CDS for Brown University, 10% of the admitted class was not in the top 10% of their high school class. Of the 50% who submitted SAT scores, 25% has SATs below 1470. Those numbers tell you that there are certainly plenty of applications from 3.7/1450 SATs or even 3.7-3.8 test option.
And I do think it’s important to differentiate the message we send to someone with 3.8/test optional as opposed to 4.0/1580. It’s a disservice to look at both students and just shrug, “reaches for both of you.”
Think it’s important to appreciate the difference between a student that may have a 3% chance of admission versus a student who may have a 10-15% shot.
But overall, I do totally agree with you. There needs to be a balance, expectations should be tempered. You don’t want a student getting unnecessarily depressed with a ton of unexpected rejections. But you also don’t want a student depressed through the whole process because they think they don’t have a chance.
I was just looking over my local high school graduating class for this year, about 3/4ths have publicly shared their results. We have 9 co-valedictorians who have shared their results, 7 out of 9 are going to Ivies or Ivy equivalent. (I’m using Cornell/UCLA level as the cut off). We have 60 students with GPA of 4.0 or better. 30 out of the 60 are going to Ivy or equivalent. In total, 35 are going to Ivy or equivalent (in addition to the 30 4.0 students, 5 students with GPAs below 4.0).
So based on my own analysis of my own local data, I’d conclude-- A top 1-2% applicant might have a very low chance of acceptance at any one Ivy-equivalent, but they have a very good chance of getting into at least one Ivy-equivalent if they apply to many (and use ED).
And a top 10%, 4.0, student has at least a 50/50 shot of getting into an Ivy equivalent. (If you apply to 10 schools where you have a 10% shot at each school, you may have a 50/50 of getting into at least one).
All this comes down to me agreeing with you – It’s important to build a balanced list. For a super high achiever, that means not banking on just 1 or 2 dream schools. Apply to lots of those selective schools without counting on just one, and also building in true matches, likely and safety into your list.