<p>Hm. I suspect we're dodging around the question a little bit. I'm gonna rephrase the questions a little bit, just to make sure we're really getting at the question.</p>
<p>Of people who enter college as premeds, about how many of them eventually become medical students?
Probably around 10% or so. We know that about half of the kids who take the MCAT end up not bothering to apply, and that more than half of all applicants get rejected everywhere. So that leaves us with only 25% of the kids, but don't forget that those are already the kids who have made it through physics, organic chemistry, etc. The students who don't survive those (or find something else they like better) are at least half of the premed pool, so we're probably looking at about 10-12% or so.</p>
<p>Of the students who survive, are most of them rejected because of numbers?
I think so. We know that the national average among all applicants is an MCAT score of about 27 to 28, while the national average among all admits is around 31 or so. So the average among rejects is probably around 26 or so, I suspect. Similarly, look at their BCPM GPA's: accepteds have about 3.52, while overall applicants have 3.30. Rejects, then, might average something like a 3.1.</p>
<p>AAMC:</a> FACTS Table 17: MCAT Scores and GPAs for Applicants and Matriculants to U.S. Medical Schools</p>
<p>So if my numbers are good, I'll get in?
No, that's definitely an overstatement. Shades has an excellent post #4 here, and this thread should be read, too:
<a href="http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/pre-med-topics/470818-horror-stories-what-we-can-learn.html%5B/url%5D">http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/pre-med-topics/470818-horror-stories-what-we-can-learn.html</a></p>
<p>Maybe all the rejects are late entries, so if I'm here early, my odds are better?
I doubt it. There's no evidence to support this, not least because late entries are probably GPA-range candidates (or else why switch in?). If anything, I think it's the reverse.</p>
<p>Maybe all the rejects are doing stupid things?
Again, I doubt it. Most premeds are getting rejected on the numbers, from what it looks like. And that doesn't mean they're doing stupid things. College is hard. Science classes are tough. The MCAT is a difficult exam. Getting a 27 and a 3.3 doesn't make you a screwup or an idiot -- actually, it makes you a very bright human being in absolute standards, but medical school asks for more than that.</p>
<p>To say the same thing in reverse: just because you're bright and diligent doesn't mean you will get "good" numbers.</p>
<p>Is a 27 a good score?
Yes, very, in an relative sense. Remember, any premed who takes the MCAT at all has already survived his prerequisite classes, which include a lot of very tough classes. To score a 27 -- I think that's around the 65th percentile -- means you're beating an awful lot of pretty bright kids already.</p>
<p>On the other hand, absolutely speaking, it's hard for a 27 to get into med school, which is the purpose of the MCAT. The point is it's impressive, but often not impressive enough for what these kids were hoping.</p>
<p>So the rejected kids include a lot of kids who aren't stupid and aren't lazy?
That's exactly right.</p>
<p>So... I'm feeling kind of scared now.
Well, in some ways that's appropriate. The odds are pretty low. But that shouldn't scare you. For one thing, there's a lot of great jobs out there that a lot of freshmen don't even know about. High schoolers all think their options are medicine, law, and some generic ideal of "business." And, of course, the vast majority of jobs out there are not one of those three things. So there's a lot of room for personal growth, too.</p>
<p>Yeah, but I want to help people.
Well, all jobs help people. After all, nobody would give you money if they didn't feel helped. But if you specifically want to help sick people, the allied health professions are always in a dramatic labor shortage. The world is desperate for graduates of nursing, physician assistant, physical therapy, optometry, dentistry, audiology, social work, psychology, pharmacy, medical research, and many, many other such programs. The money is good; the hours and stresses are a lot lower than those in medicine; and you usually get a lot more time to spend with your patients.</p>