<p>I was looking at Parchment and the chances of my acceptance to my schools vary from ~100% to ~70% to ~50%.
A safety is obviously in the 100% or close. Is a match school in the 60-70% range? And a reach around 50%?
I know these sites are never exactly accurate, but it's somewhat reassuring.</p>
<p>Well, using the measurements you provided I’d say a match is around 50% while a reach is around 30%.</p>
<p>Safety = 100% chance of acceptance and being affordable (cost / financial aid / scholarships). Of course, it must also be a school that you like and is academically and otherwise appropriate for you.</p>
<p>The websites that give “percentages” are jokes. No formula can determine how “likey” you are to get into a college. </p>
<p>Maybe the admission officer who’s reading your application is having a bad day its 7 at night her car is broken down and you’re the 75th app she’s read today oh. and its raining. -facepalm- </p>
<p>Safety schools: you need to be very likely to get into: You have to be top 25% of that schools reported GPA & ACT/SAT scores. They must fit financially… if you can full pay or they will pay because of your stats/need. </p>
<p>Match Schools: Schools where your stats fall at about 50% of the reported GPA & ACT/SAT scores. (if you’re a bit below them, essays/EC’s can have a huge impact on your application + demonstrated interest) </p>
<p>Reach Schools: Schools that you are probably in the lower 25% of their reported GPA & SAT/ACT scores. OR Schools that have acceptance rates of under 20% These are reaches for EVERYBODY even perfect score/gpa students. <— ESSAYS+EC’s+REC’s gets you into reach schools.</p>
<p>Rolling Admission schools can vary the catergory as well.</p>
<p>A match Rolling Admission school can be a “safety” in August. Pitt is a school that appears to tighten the admits & look for higher stats as the season goes on.</p>
<p>Parchment is a great site, but the data for your admission chances using Parchment is inaccurate. There are too many variables (not a large enough sampling; relies on self-reported data).</p>
<p>If your school has Naviance, that will be more accurate.</p>
<p>Our school does not. My son is combing thru Common Data Sets and IPEDS.</p>
<p>Criteria I’ve seen that seems to work:</p>
<p>Statistically (GPA/SAT/ACT) >= 75th%tile & Admit rate >= 60% = Safety</p>
<p>50-75th%-tile stats, 30 - 60% admit rate = Match</p>
<p>50th%tile stats 20 - 30% admit rate = Reach</p>
<p><20% admit rate reach for everyone.</p>
<p>Pick two safety, 4-5 Match, 2 Reach, 1 Big reach and you should be OK.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>They also cannot be schools that consider “level of interest” in admissions (see the school’s common data set, section C7); schools that do so also typically do not want to be used as safeties in order to keep their yield up.</p>
<p>Also, being in the top 25% of stats does not necessarily make the school a safety for admission, in the case of schools with holistic admissions processes including consideration of essays and other subjective criteria, particularly highly selective schools. Even in the case of schools that admit by formula, some have different thresholds for different majors or divisions.</p>
<p>I know I have not posted all my stats, because I don’t want this to turn into a chance me thread.
But for example, this is how I’ve categorized my schools.
Safety:
Loyola University New Orleans
University of Mississippi</p>
<p>Match:
Virginia Tech
Southern Methodist University
Clemson University
University of Miami</p>
<p>Reach:
Tulane University
Wake Forest University
Georgia Institute of Technology</p>
<p>All the information provided has really helped me put the schools I’m interested in into these categories. I’m not a 2400 student, but I’m above average for sure. I feel that with your help I have a good sense of reality of the schools I should depend on and the ones I should pray for. Thank you!</p>
<p>Since Loyola New Orleans is a costly private and doesn’t “meet need”, it may not be a safety for you unless you know that your parents will pay ALL costs.</p>
<p>If you need any aid from Loyola, and you’re not sure what you’d get, then it’s NOT a safety.</p>
<p>BTW…you have GT, VT, and Clemson on your lists. Those are OOS publics that won’t give much aid, so again, those schools may not be affordable unless you know that your parents WILL pay the costs to go there.</p>
<p>Statistically (GPA/SAT/ACT) >= 75th%tile & Admit rate >= 60% = Safety</p>
<p>The above would ONLY be true if the parents have agreed to pay all costs. There are many OOS publics and lower level privates with high acceptance rates, but they dont’ give much aid. If you can’t afford a school, then HOW can it be a safety??? What good is an acceptance to an unaffordable school???</p>
<p>I’m fairly certain I’ll qualify for some merit at Loyola. But that is a good point to bring up. Thank you!</p>