What will be my chances at Duke in ED?

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

I’m in kind of a confused state since I don’t know what to do with my 1430 SAT score (1600 scale) [96 percentile]. After a lot of research, I chose to ED to Duke University. I know this score is more towards the 25th percentile, so I’ll try taking the ACT in October instead. (September ACT would have made some time conflicts). But since I can submit them only after I would have already ED-ed to Duke, I don’t want to rely on it (thinking of my worst case scenario where ACT scores are worse than SAT scores). So, can someone tell me if I have a shot at Duke in ED?

I. BASIC INFO that might be helpful:

Nationality: India
Financial Aid Required (A lot) [Won’t be able to pay above 5K$]
Intended Major: Physics

II. SCHOOL GRADES:-

  1. Grade 9: CGPA 10
  2. Grade 10: CGPA 10
  3. Grade 11: A grade in all subjects (86%) [Our grading system changes from Grade 11 and onward where percentage of marks secured is also mentioned apart from grades]
  4. Grade 12 (Mid term report): All A grades (87%)

Presently 2nd topper of my class of 400 students, sharing the rank with 6 others.

Note: CGPA=Cumulative GPA [That’s what they have instead of GPA till Grade 10. 10 is the highest possible CGPA]

P.S.: My Grade 11 and Grade 12 might be a bit of a disadvantage since other Indian schools have a grading system where people get 90-95% marks. Our school offers the hardest course in our region and has a very very strict grading system. But in my LORs my teachers have promised to write about this fact and also I think college adcoms could judge it out by the class rank provided they consider it. I really don’t know about this. Maybe you can help me what to do for the best.

III. STANDARDIZED TESTS taken:-

1430/1600 [New SAT]

IV. AWARDS (I will describe some of them since some of you may not know about those Indian competitions):

  1. Second Prize Internationally in NASA Ames Space Settlement Design Contest
  2. Initiative for Research and Innovation in Science (IRIS) Finalist 2015. Had to go through several regional and state level screening to attend this fair which is the most prestigious science fair in India.
  3. Initiative for Research and Innovation in Science (IRIS) Grand Winner 2015. Thereby I was selected to represent Team India to attend Intel International Science and Engineering Fair (ISEF) 2016. But very unfortunately, my teammate had to undergo a major operation for which we couldn't attend it.
  4. Winner of the most prestigious scholarship in India, i.e., National Talent Search Examination (NTSE) scholarship which is received upon several screening tests conducted by Government Of India.
  5. Second Prize in National Creativity Olympiad. A National Competition
  6. Received an acceptance letter (the highest type) for a innovation in IGNITE 2013 [conducted by Government of India].

V. EXTRACURRICULARS:-

  1. At a program co-sponsored by Yale University, I learnt how to use satellite data to find planets. Spent nearly a year discovering planets using it.
  2. Head of the Student's Council of our school. (1 year)
  3. Founder and President of the physics club 'Cosmos' of our school. (1 year)
  4. Worked on a research with another friend in Applied Mathematics which was my project for IRIS 2015. (2 years)
  5. In a website, where people volunteer to help other people with depression, anxiety, suicidal thoughts, self harm and other psychological problems, I had been volunteering for 2 years and I have helped over 100 people to help them find their life back on track. I have completed 600+ conversations with over a 200 people amounting to around 400 hours of voluntary work. [My 2nd essay will be on it since lot of my seniors thought this was really good]
  6. Taught several underprivileged children, I mean, just basic education for free (also supplied books and all). (for over 3 years)
  7. Volunteered at several places online. Like helped with certain activities for helping cancer patients, dengue patients, book archiving, etc. (only for 40 hours)
  8. Participated in the class team for cricket and soccer games. (2 years)
  9. Donated a couple of my scholarships. (I don't know if I'll put this in my app).
  10. Interning (unpaid) at a local firm about college counseling for Indian colleges. (4 months)
  11. Taking 2 courses of college level, one in Physics and the other in Astronomy at Edx. (Not completed) (4 months)

VI. ADDITIONAL INFO that will be put into LORs and Essays.

  1. All my life, economic hardship had been a common thing. I was born and brought up my early childhood from a village where the nearest bus stand is 10 kms. from our home and yes, villagers there don't have any other kind of transportation facilities like cars, etc.
  2. In my high school, I am the only student to ever receive full-tuition fee waiver scholarship for 4 years straight. I don't even know if I would have been able to attend a good high school without it.

Also to note, I will EA to Villanova and University of Southern California (USC) since only these colleges maybe in my league and gives a lot of aid to international students and have EA program. Will apply to several other ivies in RD if deferred or rejected in ED by Duke. If you have a better option (like ED to X, or EA to Y, or anything) feel free to comment.

Thank you so much for being patient and reaching the end. At times I had to describe certain parts, so please don’t take them as bragging. I know it was long, and you might be too tired by now to leave a reply, haha, but any kind of help would be highly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

2

Retake SAT for a better chance, 1430 is low

3

And, when you are saying that 1430 is at the 25th percentile, that is the old SAT. The new SAT has a much kinder score. There isn’t any data yet on how colleges are looking at the scores of the new SAT since everyone knows the scores are so much higher than the old scores. Here is a conversion chart for new SAT to old SAT.

https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/higher-ed-brief-sat-concordance.pdf

It says your 1430 is equal to a 2040.

4

You extracurricular are really impressive, I would just retake the SAT if I was you. I still feel like your chances will be pretty good if you write a decent essay.

5

@Pedro73 @kjake2000 I won’t be able to retake the SAT on time since you see October 1 I’ll take the SAT subject tests and although Duke accepts November SAT as per the website, I don’t think they’ll reach on time since the new SAT takes over 1.5 months before the score is out. So I’m forced to take the ACT instead. Thank you for replying!

6

@bwaygirl1 Thanks for your comment. To clear things up, I meant 1430 as a 25th percentile score for Duke. I’m sorry for the ambiguity. Also, what do you mean by ‘scores are so much higher than old scores’. I didn’t get that. Please clarify it.

And you know, I’ve some thoughts about the concordance table. I’d used it earlier and I saw about the 2040 score. But you see 2040 is a 94 percentile whereas 1430 is a 96-97 percentile. Now you see although both are same scores, but 2040 is easier to score than 1430, since more students get 2040 than 1430. So, do college officials consider percentile when reviewing?

Please correct me if I’m wrong somewhere. Thank you.

7

I think you should consider withdrawing your ED application from Duke. Duke does give aid for internationals but only for the tippy top of the applicant pile. Your scores are not competitive enough. I’m afraid you’ll be staring at a rejection.

Since you’ll need a lot of FA consider other schools where your scores are >75th percentile. This way you will have a good shot at merit and financial aid.

8

So, the only data that any college has right now is for the old SAT. There is no data for college admissions on the new SAT. So, when you say that a 1430 is at the 25% percentile for Duke, it is a 1430 on the old SAT. College Board put out that concordance table. Even they are admitting that a 1430 on the new SAT is equal to a 2040 on the old SAT. The scores on the new SAT have been very generous. No one knows yet how colleges will view the new SAT scores that have been inflated (even admitted by the College Board concordance table). What percentile is a 2040 for Duke? I am betting it is under the 25%.

College Board has lost a lot of ground to the ACT in the last few years. They are trying to lure back customers. If they give higher scores, people are happy and others will want to take that test. It is kind of like people shopping for clothes. If they are a size 4 in Brand X but size 6 in Brand Y, guess what brand they will like better? This a business. College Board has made their business more attractive by making your scores more attractive. Now, the question is how will the colleges view these new scores…and remember your numbers are not the only numbers that went up…everyone’s did.