<p>With so many people applying to med school, I would assume the med schools are at maximum capacity training doctors. And with the economy as it is, I would assume hospitals are firing as many doctors as they can deem "unnecessary". Are these assumptions true? And if they are true, does that make it difficult to find work after med school? And lastly, do you think it will continue to get worse (with more and more people going to college), or will it get better after this recession?</p>
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<p>They are and always will able to fill their classes to capacity because there are always way more people who want the med school seats than there are spaces available. But many (if not most) med schools have plans to increase their class sizes in the upcoming years. Also, new med schools (both MD and DO) continue to open each year.</p>
<p>And this is because there is a huge demand for physicians, and the demand is only going to increase as the baby boomer generation retires. So despite the current economy, job outlooks for all healthcare positions is excellent.</p>
<p>Its not the number of med school spots, but rather the more or less stagnant number of residency spots that makes this all interesting. IMG students and DO students will likely get mostly pushed out of the allo match in the coming years as competition for certain specialties increases. Not really a problem for the DOs since they have their own residency spots. But students who go offshore to do med school are going to face even more problems coming back for residency.</p>
<p>Icarus did a good job covering some of your assumptions. But generally there’s going to be a “shortage” of physicians in the near future. Much is made about the aging baby boomers, but 2008 saw the most births in US history for a single year. There’s going to be plenty of work for everyone.</p>
<p>There are a limited number of residency spots in the allopathic match (National Residency Match Program or NRMP) currently, which is in part because Medicare pays resident salaries, and also due to the fact that the primary care specialties (namely Internal medicine, family medicine and pediatrics) which are going to face the greatest shortages, are the ones that have the most difficult time filling their spots with graduates of US medical schools. However, specialty choices are cyclical, and it’s quite possible that we’ll gradually see a return to the mid-late 90’s in which the number of new physicians entering PC specialties will grow…things get trendy, cohorts focus on one significant factor, etc and certain fields become popular</p>
<p>One thing to realize though is that for new physicians, like myself, there are jobs…I mean seriously, if you’re a 2009 graduate from a US medical school, there is absolutely no issue with getting something that’s going to pay you to practice medicine. You’re required to complete at least one year of residency and so long as you’re willing to take some job, you can without a doubt get that taken care of. Most people though land in their specialty of choice, and so are locked into a job for the next 3-7 years while they complete their training in their field of choice.</p>
<p>That’s also an important key for people thinking about becoming doctors…the lag time between now, 4 years from now when most HS seniors will graduate college and enter the job market and the 11 to 15 years (4 years of college, 4 of med school, 3-7 of residency) it will be before the HS class of 2009 becomes fully trained doctors means it’s pretty much irrelevant what the economy is doing now. Personally, I graduated in May of 2001…it’s amazing to think how much has changed in 8 years and it would have been impossible to predict that the economy would be like it is today.</p>
<p>Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, you have to remember that good economy or bad, people still get sick and still need physicians. This perhaps answers your question most directly. Medicine really is fairly recession proof. I think perhaps the biggest impact is on the older physicians who have seen their portfolios tank, and as such they may be thinking they’re going to retire later than anticipated. While I think it’s likely there are some hospitals systems that may have laid off physicians, their probably few and far between (choosing instead to cut costs elsewhere), though hiring freezes are certainly likely. That said, and I can only speak for pediatrics, but when I was interviewing for residency spots there were a number of departments who had really grand plans to expand their number of faculty members significantly over the next handful of years…</p>
<p>Bottom line, in general physicians are in an ok position despite the recession because people will still get sick, the length of training makes it nearly impossible to predict how things will be, new med school grads have little to worry about, and even the newly graduated residents are probably ok.</p>