Good point about application timing @lvvcsf. A college might be a safety in September but a reach in April.
I don’t think there is a fixed admission rate threshold to be considered safety. It is highly depending on the stat of the student. For some, they may need to look at schools to have guaranteed admission to make it a safety. For others, even a school with below 30% admission rate can be a safety.
Safety schools are different for different kids, Malia Obama’s safety’s were Ivy League schools (or maybe she didn’t have any). A safety for a 3.2 GPA public H.S. kid is community college.
Obviously schools with guaranteed admission like UT can be safeties if they are also affordable and the student would be happy to go there.
@CU123, how do you know what Malia’s safeties were?
I did a little research into the two schools whose waitlist rate this year so alarmed me. Apparently, both became more selective since the data in the latest US News, Forbes and Princeton Review reports. One accepted 46% for the class of 2018, 35% for the class of 2019 (still with similar stat range to the year before), and 26% for the class of 2020 (still with stats much lower than at most schools accepting 26% of applicants). If your acceptance rate drops 20% in two years, indeed no one could consider your school a safety. If you do it by rejecting some higher scoring applicants to reduce the number of students who need to be accepted to yield the class size you desire-- well, that explains all the surprise and woe some of their high-achieving applicants experienced this year.
@TheGreyKing , colleges are up to all kinds of shenanigans at the moment. Northeastern loves to defer or waitlist strong applicants to game the numbers. They are notorious. Colby admitted stduents fromthe WL in MARCH!!! I suspect many colleges are going to pull stduents from the WL this year because it’s getting more unpredictable. I firmly wish USNWR would stop considering acceptance rates as a factor, becasue its becoming meaningless. Look at a different ranking and it will say something else entirely.
Really, at what point does Stanford hit the 0% acceptance rate? At the end of the day, it really is about stats and fit. Colleges want students who fit their ideals. And right now, a lot of,stduents are just throwing out apps and poor essays at schools that require supplements. The lottery approach doesn’t work.
Even schools with very high acceptance rates are not necessarily a “safety” for lots of kids . Virginia Tech has about a 70% acceptance rate . But there is some self selection , particularly with instate students. Students with 3.0 GPA’s ,in general, are just not going to bother to apply. The average accepted GPA is about 4.0 weighted. Engineering is particularly tough and many kids every year with decent stats are not accepted. But if you look at the overall acceptance rate , you would think it would be a very easy acceptance.
@Lindagaf, Stanford hits 0% when they get down to an actual rate of .49% and they can round down 
I think it is impossible to come up with hard and fast rules on what is a safety for different types of students. Many of my kids’ safeties had acceptance rates under 50% but based on Naviance and past results for previous grads from their high school, there were some that looked like a pretty sure bet. Unlike some others on CC, I don’t think safeties have to be an admittance guarantee but I do think students should apply to 2-3 minimum to allow for a surprise. And make big efforts to show demonstrated interest if the college factors that in!
@doschicos: The problem with Naviance and past results is that over the past decade or even 5 years, some schools have seen a major increase in selectivity and/or unpredictability.
That’s true but Naviance shouldn’t be used 5 years back. My kids’ school used a running 3 year history and if you play it conservatively and have multiple safeties, I think most applicants will still be safe, @PurpleTitan.
And I do agree with other posters that applying early action or rolling to at least one school is helpful. If the result is surprisingly negative, it gives an applicant time to readjust strategy.
Rolling, EA, unis overseas (if you can afford it), possibly ED1 and ED2. The whole arsenal should be used because the RD admit rates for a ton of schools are very low now.
For example, FSU’s RD admit rate is roughly 20% now:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/1944094-college-admissions-statistics-class-of-2021-early-and-regular-decision-acceptance-rates.html#latest
OP, your question “How can you be assured of having somewhere to go to school, and preferably having a choice?” is an interesting one. Here are my unprofessional thoughts, but with insight gained by having just gone through the process with a son who has great choices, and who is correctly putting me through torture because he won’t decide already.
Treat the college application process like your hardest high school class: prepare, be present, and participate.
- Prepare: Research which colleges would be a good and great fit. If you can apply to no more than 10 schools, consider 3 safer schools, 4 target/match schools, and 3 within reach schools. (Note I said "safer", because there's no such thing as safe anymore).
And “within reach” doesn’t mean that line from “Dumb and Dumber” when Jim Carey’s character is asking the supermodel for a date. He asks her, “So,what are my chances, like one in a hundred?” and she replies, “More like one in a million.” Jim Carey smiles with joy and exclaims, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!!!”
Seriously, be realistic and under no circumstances should you apply to only target and reach schools. (See Dumb and Dumber quote above)
Make sure to include at least one IN state school in each category.
Make sure to include at least one OOS school in each category.
Consider including one reasonable private school in the mix. Many times they will give grants that make tuition equal to a state public college. And, some states, such as Virginia, offer timeframes where if you visit a private college, the application fee is waived.
- Be Present: Officially VISIT each of these schools. Yes, Even if it's your sister's current college and you've been there 6 times, you still should REGISTER officially with admissions so it "counts". Your visit shows interest. If the school offers information sessions by major, then attend those too, even on separate visits. If you cannot attend in person, then write a letter to the admissions dept asking for information, and express your sincere interest in applying and hopefully attending....
- Participate: Devote time to the application process for each school. There is no such thing as "optional". If you can "optionally" answer up to 3 essay prompts, then answer 3 essay prompts. If you can interview in person, then interview. If you can include up to 3 letters of recommendation, then do so. Be mindful of choosing your recommenders, and personalize when possible, such as a recommender who KNOWS you and who happened to also graduate from that same college.... if you can only choose one recommendation letter, then I would choose someone who can speak to your excellent qualities in character and academics, especially if it's in your subject matter.
Write and send real thank you letters when you meet with specific people in the application process.
Final thoughts:
- apply EA whenever possible
- consider applying ED to your top choice school.
- no last minute application submissions. Click submit at least a week in advance.
Good luck.
OP, your question “How can you be assured of having somewhere to go to school, and preferably having a choice?” is an interesting one. Here are my unprofessional thoughts, but with insight gained by having just gone through the process with a son who has great choices, and who is correctly putting me through torture because he won’t decide already.
Treat the college application process like your hardest high school class: prepare, be present, and participate.
- Prepare: Research which colleges would be a good and great fit. If you can apply to no more than 10 schools, consider 3 safer schools, 4 target/match schools, and 3 within reach schools. (Note I said "safer", because there's no such think as safe anymore). Make sure to include at least one state school in each category.
Include in state and OOS schools. Consider including one reasonable private school. Many times they will give grants that make tuition equal to a state public college. And, some states, such as Virginia, offer timeframes where if you visit a private college, the application fee is waived.
- Be Present: Officially VISIT each of these schools. Yes, Even if it's your sister's current college and you've been there 6 times, you still should REGISTER officially with admissions so it "counts". Your visit shows interest. If the school offers information sessions by major, then attend those too, even on separate visits. If you cannot attend in person, then write a letter to the admissions dept asking for information, and express your sincere interest in applying and hopefully attending....
- Participate: Devote time to the application process for each school. There is no such thing as "optional". If you can "optionally" answer up to 3 essay prompts, then answer 3 essay prompts. If you can interview in person, then interview. If you can include up to 3 letters of recommendation, then do so. Be mindful of choosing your recommenders, and personalize when possible, such as a recommender who KNOWS you and who happened to also graduate from that same college.... if you can only choose one recommendation letter, then I would choose someone who can speak to your excellent qualities in character and academics, especially if it's in your subject matter.
Write and send real thank you letters if you met with specific people in the application process.
Final thoughts:
- apply EA whenever possible
- consider applying ED to your favorite school.
- no last minute application submissions. Click submit at least 2 weeks in advance.
Good luck.
Schools with automatic admission criteria that the student meets are safe for admission.
While in-state public schools are often lower cost options (although some states’ public schools are not for low income families – e.g. PA), out-of-state public schools often are not unless carefully chosen for merit scholarships or regional tuition discounts, or are specifically low cost (e.g. South Dakota State).
Check if the school considers level of applicant’s interest before going out of your way to show interest.
And visiting is simply not practical or affordable for a LOT of kids. Last year my kid was accepted to three colleges she was unable to visit prior. She did show interest in other ways to two of those schools, both very selective. Please don’t freak out, paretns, if you can’t visit a college beforehand. Your child can request interviews and meet reps at college fairs. And another easy trick: Go on the college website and look at their version of the application. Some of,them allow you to fill out the first part of the application (basic details) and submit it separately from the rest of the app. D did that for at least two colleges. It shows them you took the time to carefully look at their website.
@Lindagaf , on what basis do you have it that someone was admitted from Colby 's WL in March? Their website says no earlier than mid April. There was a single post on the Colby by a person, of dubious posting history, who claimed to be admitted off the WL within 5 days of the announcement of RD decisions. Not sure what’s to be gained by repeating this rumor. The only thing that is true is that Colby expects to go to its WL.
@gardenstategal , fair point, it’s unsubstantiated. I was trying to emphasize that colleges are doing all kinds of things to make themselves appear more selelctive, and it’s not a secret that Colby’s Dean of Admissions has been very aggressive with whittling the acceptance rate. It doesn’t diminish the fact that Colby is an excellent school, and they were very smart to hire Proto.
Clemson has also been very agressive. Kenyon did away with its essay and saw its applications increase. My main point though is that if a student does their homework they should be able to compile a list of schools that are within the realms of possibility in terms of safeties matches and reaches, despite the alleged increasing difficulty of getting in. Students should assess themselves realistically.
@Lindagaf How has Clemson becoming more selective?