A body of research exists on this subject. Related research papers and findings have been cited fairly often on CC (including work by Dale and Krueger: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7322). As far as I can tell, a clear consensus has not emerged. The papers I’ve read suggest that, among the 100 or so most selective colleges, where you go makes no significant difference to career earnings, for most students (after controlling for the kinds of qualifications assessed in college admissions). If you’re comparing the most selective colleges with far less selective colleges (e.g. Ivies vs. unranked schools), then there may be significant earnings differences (even after controlling for student abilities).
The papers I’ve seen focus on earnings differences. College choice may make a significant difference to other outcomes that haven’t been researched as well. Roughly half of students at the most prestigious colleges are full pay students from very affluent families. Many of them may not be choosing colleges primarily with career earnings outcomes in mind.