<ol>
<li><p>Probabilities are the result of precise mathematical equations. What you are asking for is opinions.</p></li>
<li><p>Are all admission books silly and worthless? No, but they only provide insight on a gross level, i.e., get good grades, high test scores and have intriguing ECs. They provide little useful information on how an individual applicant’s profile will be viewed at a specific school. Furthermore, the more people who read a given book and apply a given strategy the more ‘average’ those types of applications become thereby mitigating a once perceived advantage.</p></li>
<li><p>‘Mediocre’ ECs and ‘below average’ essays. Few if any applicants believe they are submitting mediocre or below average applications. These are matters of perception and can only be judged when compared to the overall pool of applicants. Furthermore, individual readers can have widely variable reactions to the same product. For example, while many will agree with NewHavenCTmom that the student she met oozed entitlement, a given admissions counselor might read the application and hear someone brimming with justifiable confidence. The arbitrary scales applied by different readers nullifies your assessment of their merits. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>In the end, both candidates are within the statistical profile for Amherst. The second candidate has an edge to the extent that Amherst ‘values’ ED applicants.</p>