Honestly, I think it is infinitely more important to have a safety you like than reach or OOS options. There is a level of privilege on this board that most of the world just doesn’t have in terms of options for their kid’s higher education. I think it is perfectly fine to give your child a budget, let her know the federal loan limits she can take on, make sure she has one on the list that is affordable as is or with automatic merit and go from there.
We live in a major metro and our well regarded flagship has given my kid good merit and honors program. He applied to a bunch of schools. I can tell you as a full pay family approaching retirement with another kid coming behind, nothing is going to justify spending 2-3X that amount of money. We have some give on cost but not that much. We cannot actually do full pay private for both kids despite the fact the FAFSA thinks we can. And yes, my kid has the 99% ACT score and a 4.0 and a lengthy and pointed extracurricular resume.
People can wax poetic all day about giving your child an opportunity on another coast or “needing” additional challenge and I don’t deny that’s nice if you can do it. But kids can and do gain independence in their own back yard and there are many very strong affordable state and generous merit privates out there. I just talked to a mom this week whose kid is at college 45 minutes away and she’s seen him twice since August. Living and operating on a college campus can be an entirely different world if parents are willing to let go and a young person wants that independence. My flagship grad husband works along MIT grads out of a company in Boston. There are plenty of ways to reach academic and career goals.
It’s great to know what is going to work for your family and your budget. I also wouldn’t get too invested in what a freshman is saying right now. My senior changed a lot from freshman year and once we punched the numbers he understands our constraints. He did apply to some reachy schools with competitive merit but understands the numbers need to make sense at the end of the day. He has been accepted at 3 affordable options so far, and 2 more we’re waiting for the numbers. Also waiting for several more applications.