Will that college degree pay off? Some actual numbers

Harvard can be more affordable than UMass.

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Thatā€™s definitely true for folks in certain income categories - for students from lower income households it is much cheaper to go to Harvard than UMass. Itā€™s a moot point, though, since so few students are admitted.

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So, poor students should be consigned to STEM type careers irregardless of their abilities and inclination? Not to mention that about half of students change their major during their college career - what do you do when a kid starts as an engineer and decides on philosophy instead? In my view, federal loans are not the issue - at a maximum of $27,000 that is about the cost of a new car. Itā€™s when kids and their parents borrow privately to augment that federal loan amount that you see problems - loans upwards of $100,000. I think there should be a cap on total education borrowing, but that would never fly - how would people afford law school or med school?

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With my proposal, I am not cutting anyone off except colleges that have a poor record of student repayment. Another, possibly much more effective way to achieve the same goal is to put colleges on the hook for a portion of the non-repayment. They will rapidly get rid of programs where students cannot repay their loans.

Remember, these are loans, not grants, and we should expect them to be repaid. The student loan programs should provide as much information as we can to students and their parents about the loan costs and prospects for their chosen career. If they still choose to enter fields that they enjoy but which has low pay, thatā€™s on them.

And yes, I recognize that students often change majors, which is why I suggested putting down the earnings of the college as well. Perhaps a better idea is making them sign a new statement when declaring a new major so they understand the likely prospects there as well.

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Human beings are not all selfless, to put it mildly. There needs to be alignment of interest, either with incentives or through regulations. Thereā€™s little such alignment in the current system. With finite resources, thereā€™s also a need for compromises. Ideals and perfections arenā€™t possible without infinite resources.

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Harvard can be more affordable than UMass.

Harvard is less expensive for families making $75,000 but for families making more than $75,000 Harvard is more expensive (on average) according to the federal Net Price data at College Navigator.

This doesnā€™t seem right. I ran the NPC for Harvard and UMass in-state with a $100k gross income assumption for Harvard and an $80k after tax income assumption for UMass. The net price for Harvard was $8,750. For UMass it was $26,073. Even at income less than $30,000 (lowest you can choose) the estimated net cost was still $13,573.

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Now try the comparison where the student lives with a single parent, but the other parent has a $200k income.

The online NPCā€™s donā€™t allow for me to make that fine of a distinction. At $200k gross income for Harvard of a family of 2, the net price is $44,500 which exceeds the in-state COA for UMass at $33,223.

The base assumptions are Mass resident, no other income, family assets $50k in cash/investments (no business or real property equity). UMass only asks for after tax household income.

Ok, you are correct for families in the income range between $75,000 to $110,000 Harvard is less expensive. Greater than $110,000 Harvard is more expensive. That is IF the student is admitted to Harvard.

Average net price for full-time beginning undergraduate students who were awarded Title IV aid by income ($75,001 - $110,000):

Harvard: $20,059 (2019-2020)
UMass: $23,064 (2019-2020)

Ok, for kicks I ran NPCā€™s at $150k for Harvard and increased assets to $250,000. The net cost is $21,250. You would be full pay at UMass (barring merit, which you likely would get if you also got into Harvard). If I push household income to $175k (keeping assets at $250k) we finally get Harvard to $33,400.

I think when you use averages that aggregates data of a range of incomes, the distribution within those ranges may be very different (one school may have a greater number of families towards the higher end of the range which will raise the avg cost). In addition, the family assets distribution may also be very different. The only way we can make apples to apples comparisons is to use identical assumptions as to income and assets (plus family makeup and geography) to say which school would be cheaper.

Isnā€™t it largely a moot point, though? Most students have no chance of being admitted to Harvard - even our very best students only have a slim chance. That being said, I do think more high performing kids from lower SES backgrounds should seek out well endowed schools, like Harvard, because they will often be cheaper than their state flagship (which is often the de facto choice for these students).

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Agree that this situation is limited to the very few who are admitted to these high FA schools. However, there are many families with high achieving kids from lower income to even upper middle class ($150kĀ±) who do not realize that schools like Harvard are cheaper than their flagship and never apply.

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As I mentioned above, I agree with you on that. Too many kids limit themselves because they donā€™t understand that very generous financial aid can make some elite schools very affordable to them.

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There are also a number of students who limit themselves due to geographical reasons. If a student hasnā€™t been away from home/has limited means to travel/has a certain ā€œcomfort zoneā€ it may limit applying to elite schools.

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However, those kids unfortunate enough to have uncooperative divorced parents will not be able to access such very generous financial aid at most of the elite schools (Chicago and Vanderbilt being the exceptions; also Princeton if the custodial parent has remarried), even if they get admitted.

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Iā€™ve heard that, and it is really unfortunate.

However, a student is much more likely to be accepted to UMass. If a low to middle income student was accepted to both itā€™s a no brainer but it doesnā€™t change the cost for most because for most the only choice would be UMass.

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Exactly. STEM degrees almost always outpace humanities degrees with regards to skills learned. STEM majors usually are able to read closely, research, and write analytically or creatively. Meanwhile, only a small sliver of humanities majors are able to write software or conduct advanced statistical analysis. Anyone who is not independently wealthy should not get a humanities degree.

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This is really only something that the wealthy or privileged can say. If youā€™re middle class or lower, college is about career/grad school prep. Period.

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