Will the increase in alternate care providers result in less need for physicians?

<p>I just read an interesting article in the current issue of Consumer Reports regarding the increase in alternate care providers - PAs, nurse practitioners etc. It discussed how this trend is increasing due to various reasons - health care reform incentives, primary physician shortage etc. We always hear about the shortage of primary care physicians and how there aren't enough doctors for the boomer and aging population. I was just wondering if anyone thinks this may result in the need for LESS doctors at some point? Will most of the current work performed by doctors be performed by PAs, nurse practioners, hospitalists etc? I don't know if this the right pre-med forum, but I would welcome the feedback from some of our experienced recurring posters here.</p>

<p>A couple of papers published by AAMC on the projected physician shortages:</p>

<p>Impact of Health Care Reform on the Future Supply and Demand for Physicians Updated Projections Through 2025</p>

<p><a href=“https://www.aamc.org/download/158076/data/updated_projections_through_2025.pdf[/url]”>https://www.aamc.org/download/158076/data/updated_projections_through_2025.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Conclusion:

</p>

<p>Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand</p>

<p>Includes a discussion of role of alternative health care providers in the delivery of primary care. (See pp.65-68)</p>

<p><a href=“https://members.aamc.org/eweb/upload/The%20Complexities%20of%20Physician%20Supply.pdf[/url]”>https://members.aamc.org/eweb/upload/The%20Complexities%20of%20Physician%20Supply.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Key finding:

</p>

<p>AAMC’s projections are in line with those produced by US Dept of Labor.</p>

<p>~~~~</p>

<p>And if you to read very depressing statistics: go here:</p>

<p>Recent Studies and Reports on Physician Shortages in the US</p>

<p>State- and specialty-specific data</p>

<p><a href=“http://www.doh.state.fl.us/Workforce/Workforce/Articles/PhysicianShortages_AAMC_5-2011.pdf[/url]”>http://www.doh.state.fl.us/Workforce/Workforce/Articles/PhysicianShortages_AAMC_5-2011.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>I don’t know how this will play out but one sequelae could be that fewer medical students go into primary care if NPs and PAs are able to carry out many of the functions of a primary care doctor. Medical students will wonder why they are going through all that training when the NP is doing the same thing and maybe even earning the same amount. There is also the prestige factor. I know it’s not supposed to matter, but you know it does. There is also the debt factor and not being able to pay $300,000 in medical school loans and pay all the other expenses of having a practice and still being able to live comfortably on a primary care doctor’s pay.</p>

<p>This is great information…thanks WayOutWestMom. The statistics are “depressing” for the general population, but encouraging for those wanting job security in medicine. It would horrible to go through all of this education, hard work and expense to find that the job you’ve been preparing for has been replaced by a PA or NP. I guess it would also depend on what specialty you wish to pursue. I will read all of this and post further questions if needed.</p>

<p>All very good points TatinG.</p>

<p>Interesting blog from the NY Times re physicians vs nurse practitioners:
[The</a> Gulf Between Doctors and Nurse Practitioners - NYTimes.com](<a href=“http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/27/the-gulf-between-doctors-and-nurse-practitioners/]The”>The Gulf Between Doctors and Nurse Practitioners - The New York Times)</p>

<p>As I understand it, Physician’s Assistants must work with a physician. They cannot be freestanding providers. So one physician can hire three PA’s and have the routine stuff done by the PA, freeing up the physician’s time for more complicated cases. The PA becomes a profitable employee of the physician, billing out more than they are paid, like paralegals or associates in law firms.</p>