Will we see a decrease in the # of CS majors?

Parents Forum
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“Flock” may be extreme. Changes are often small, in many cases too small to tell if the recession is the primary factor or there are other driving factors. Using the subprime mortgage crisis recession as an example. The peak recession period was 2008-2009. It typically takes a couple years before the maximum effect is propagated to bachelor’s degree recipients, so I’d expect to see the largest effect in ~2011, and things gradually moving back to normal trends a few years after 2011.

CS majors show the following pattern. If anything, it looks like fewer people switched to CS following the 2008-09 recession than normal. It certainly does not look like students are flocking to CS in 2011. Engineering shows the same type of pattern.

2007 – 2.5% (pre-recession)
2011 – 2.6% (peak major effects from recession)
2015 – 3.2% (returning to normal trend)

For health/nursing, the pattern is as follows. Nursing/health majors did increase significantly from 2007 to 2011, but the rate of increase was similar to or slightly less than the trend of future years, so it’s not clear that the recession was a significant driver.

2007 – 7.1% (pre-recession)
2011 – 9.1% (peak major effects from recession)
2015 – 12.0% (returning to normal trend)

I think stronger patterns often relate to perceptions of specific industries or world events, which can include perceptions about availability of future jobs, feelings about in what fields inspire students, as well as general feelings about fields being good/bad. For example, economics majors had a gradual peak during Reaganomics. History majors had peaked during Vietnam. Political Science majors had a peak following the fall of the Soviet Union (history also had a smaller peak).

It’s too early to see the impact of COVID in NCES stats, but one can look at how major enrollment (not number of completed degrees) changed at specific colleges. For example, at Stanford, it appears than biology / human biology major enrollment had a sharp decrease during COVID and is quickly recovering, now that COVID is more under control. I expect becoming a doctor seemed less appealing during COVID. CS enrollment changed from a trend of rapid increase to a decreased enrollment during COVID, perhaps due to perceptions of the change from in office to remote work and/or effects on hiring new grads.

This decreased CS major enrollment during COVID may continue to trickle down to bachelor’s degree recipients this year, due to delay between major declaration and degree received. However, as of 2022, CS major enrollment has recovered and is now at all time record high levels. The percentage of Stanford’s current 2022 students declaring a major in CS is a larger portion of students than any other major in Stanford’s recorded history.

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42

While I agree that recessions affect different industries somewhat differently, the potential recession next year will likely differ from recessions in the recent past in one significant aspect: the level of interest rate. During the '08 recession, for example, only very short term interest rates spiked briefly at the onset of the financial crisis due to illiquidity. With inflation likely to remain at elevated levels next year (constrained by supplies and cost of labor, and less by demand), interest rate will remain high by recent historical standard. The tech sector is capital intensive and the higher cost of capital will hit the sector particularly hard.

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43

For every miserable medical resident, investment banker, or corporate lawyer, there are just as many (probably more) equally miserable chefs, teachers, and social workers. Many people who choose a job because it’s “what they love” are burnt out and jaded by the low pay, poor working conditions, and bad work-life balance of these “passion” jobs (particularly in the arts, academia, and journalism). I roll my eyes whenever someone points to the plight of the golden handcuffs or cites yet another highly-paid white collar professional in their circle who is “miserable” in their finance/law/medicine/big tech job. These miserable workers probably would’ve been even more unhappy in a lower-paying job in a “passion” field – chefs and service industry folks (including pastry chefs!) are not exactly known for their strong mental health.

A fixed mindset would suggest that a kid who isn’t good at (fill in the blank) will never be good at it, so it’s time to go find something else. That’s not the same thing as shoe-boxing a kid with a strong passion in an area that parents find “shameful” (although it’s honest labor, nobody is making crystal meth in the garage) and forcing him into the “least objectionable option”, i.e. not medicine which takes a long time and requires familiarity with body fluids.

Only the wealthy can pursue what they truly love without regard to pay. To succeed in a career that one has little passion for (as is the case for the vast majority of workers – even those with college degrees), workers need grit, resilience, persistence, and a growth mindset to overcome challenges and tackle jobs that are outside of their wheelhouse.

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44

There have been plenty of surveys about job satisfaction, and there is a noteworthy correlation with income. Persons with higher incomes are more likely to report high job satisfaction, and persons with lower incomes are more likely to report low job satisfaction.

However, there are also plenty of exceptions. Persons in careers with high personal meaning or high feelings of making the world a better place also tend to report high job satisfaction, even if income is not as high as banker/lawyer/doctor. For example, clergy generally doesn’t pay well, yet in surveys members of clergy consistently report extremely high rates of job satisfaction, higher than almost any other profession. Some types of teachers and social workers also tend report high meaning as well as high average job satisfaction.

In contrast, some higher paying fields reported lower than most average job satisfaction, such as software engineer. New grads working 80+ hours per work in a high paying field often report extraordinarily low job satisfaction. Just having higher income was not enough. Some example numbers from the Goldman Sachs working condition survey at https://fd-binary-external-prod.imgix.net/JHxu13NMxHm3PvR1NCk1YL3z5Pw.pdf?dl=Arbeidsomstandighedenonderzoek+Goldman+Sachs+(pdf).pdf](https://fd-binary-external-prod.imgix.net/JHxu13NMxHm3PvR1NCk1YL3z5Pw.pdf?dl=Arbeidsomstandighedenonderzoek+Goldman+Sachs+(pdf).pdf are below. I can’t imagine chefs, teachers, or social workers would report this poor average job satisfaction.

  • Work Hours Last Week: 106 hours
  • Mean Work Hours Per Week: 98 hours
  • Rate Mental Health Before and After Job: 9/10 → 3/10
  • Rate Physical Health Before and After Job: 9/10 → 2/10
  • Rate Satisfaction with Firm; 2/10
  • Rate Satisfaction with Work Life: 2/10
  • Rate Satisfaction with Personal Life: 1/10

When choosing a career, one should consider both expected job enjoyment and earnings (among other criteria), and strike an appropriate balance that fits with what personal values. It’s great if you can find a career you’d enjoy enough to do for free that also happens to pay very well, but this is often not possible. For many it can be more choose a career that does not make you miserable and pays enough to get by.

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45

But to succeed in a career where one has abundant passion (dance, music, theater, public defender, prosecutor, missionary, Doctors without Borders medical worker, ) ALSO requires grit, resilience, persistence, etc.

So your conclusion is that success in ANY field requires grit etc… on which we agree.

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46

This topic comes up frequently on CC. There was a very long thread a few months ago.

I agree with @Data10 that the key is to find the appropriate balance between money and job satisfaction that works for the particular person. Some people care more about one than the other. It’s not an either-or choice between “hate your job but suck it up and make a lot of money” vs. “follow your passion and be dirt poor.” There is a wide range in between. Furthermore, not everyone has a burning passion they’re driven follow, and will be content with a job/career that they like well enough. This describes the majority of people I’ve known in my lifetime. And how much money is “enough” varies greatly based on many, many factors, starting with where one lives (or wants to live), desired (or acceptable) lifestyle, spending habits, family obligations, and so much more. One size does not fit all.

My belief is the people who are most miserable, whether with their job or their income, are the ones who have not found the appropriate balance.

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47

These people mostly aren’t truly passionate about their jobs, are they? I can understand why they may feel miserable if they really wanted to be in some other professions but they couldn’t.

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I can’t imagine going to work each day to a job you don’t love.

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Well, that’s the case for most people in this country.

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50

In addition to such things as spending habits, how much debt one starts a career with can be a significant factor. A physician starting with $400,000 in medical school debt may have more money pressures than one with no debt.

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51

Not loving the job is probably the norm for most people in most societies now and historically.

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52

I am spoiled.

I grew up (child of teachers) with people who loved their jobs. One parent had a one week retirement- went from paid employment, to retirement, back to a volunteer job as a reading specialist in a school with a high ESL population.

I have siblings who love their jobs, friends who love their jobs, and my children LOVE their jobs.

There’s not a single one in this pile that couldn’t be doing something to earn more money (including me).

These aren’t people laying bricks in the hot sun or trying to eke out a living farming in the dust bowl (which admittedly are tough, tough ways to keep a roof over your head and food on your table.) The lawyer who disliked the job became a law professor (and LOVES the job) and the Tech exec who was burnt out now works for non-profits managing technology upgrades (at 1/10th the salary she claims, but has never been happier professionally) and the public defender- who NEVER had the big bucks career- is looking at a comfortable retirement thanks to a fully funded pension and is grateful that with thrifty living, did not feel the pressure to take a “sell out” job to make more money.

But clearly I am spoiled if our country is filled with both high wage and low wage people who hate their jobs.

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53

Of course, there are also people who neither love nor hate their jobs.

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54

But the US is unusual on an international basis in terms of how many hours we work and (at least in the upper classes) how much we define ourselves by our jobs.

Answering emails out of hours and on vacations is not just due to fear of losing your job, it’s an American cultural phenomenon which doesn’t exist in comparable jobs in Europe.

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55

Well, there’s a lot of room between loving one’s job and hating it. Most people I know are somewhere in the middle, anywhere from “it’s okay, it gets me what I need” to “I really like it, but if I didn’t have to work I’d probably quit”.

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56

I didn’t get any of that out of her post. The only thing I can discern from this is that you disagree with @blossom about a pretty basic life choice, and that is whether to do something you don’t like for the money or do something you do like for less money. They have been trying to resolve that debate here on CC (and elsewhere) for a while and I’ve yet to see the mic-drop argument proving one view correct and the other wrong. It’s like arguing about the best color.

Also, do you have a stat for the statement that the #1 reason kids go to college is for financial security? Which kids?

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I understand perfectly what you are trying to say and didn’t take your point to be an absolute statement on the binary nature of the American workforce. Although, I do agree with the poster who posits that most people are in the middle, and I’m guessing you do as well. That would be me: a combination of pay and interest that presented a good balance. I don’t love it and I don’t hate it, but I would not do it anymore if I didn’t want to keep building wealth.

But that doesn’t in any way unwind your point about the kid in your neighborhood. Life is short. Be the pastry chef if that’s what you love, I say. He may or may not need to adjust his lifestyle, depending on how entrepreneurial he is.

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I guess I need to be more thankful then. I’ve been in USAF, then tech jobs for three different companies - loved all of them. Wife and son also loved jobs and current positions. :pray:

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But even the folks in the middle- assuming they have the legal right to work in the US (which I realize some people do not, and they are quite literally chained to a job they may hate)-- what is “chaining” people to a job they kinda/sorta are Ok with? All of a sudden a country raised on the myth of the American Dream (you can be whatever you want to be, blah blah blah) is too timid to try and optimize their professional experiences?

I have at least 30 books on my shelf that I am staring at- ranging from the “What Color is your Parachute” genre to various self-help books helping people identify their bliss… Most were best -sellers at some point, many went into 12 and 13 printings.

Who buys these books (besides folks in corporate recruiting- we use them as decor because they are bright and cheaper than fresh flowers) if there is no market for people to “trade up” professionally?

I believe that people with less education have many fewer options to find a job they enjoy. And there is evidence that people who will not relocate for work have fewer options (near, mid and longterm) which likely means less career satisfaction traded off for the family reasons or whatever keeps someone rooted to a place.

But the focus of this thread initially was college kids- and young workers. These kids with a college degree or comparable are doomed to a life of “Job is OK. Pay is OK. That’s as good as it gets”???

Enlighten me.

60

Reading this thread is weird because to be honest, almost everyone I know in real life seems to genuinely like their jobs. Heck, even my teens like their jobs (though I think their affection for the work and co-workers is because they know that their summer and after school jobs are temporary. I don’t think that they would like the jobs if they thought it would be their work for the rest of their lives).

Still I wonder if some of this like/dislike of one’s work is more about one’s co-workers and bosses as well as your own personality. Are there subjects or fields that you find interesting? Can you find work in that field? If you are an introvert, can you find work that isn’t heavily interactive? If you are an extrovert, can you find work that keeps you energized by allowing you lots of interaction with your co-workers? Can you find a job where you see eye-to-eye with the management or at least they don’t annoy you? Do you thrive in high-pressure/adrenalin seeking environments or do you like a calmer workplace culture? Are you marketable enough to find employment in a place where the workplace culture matches your personality.

Most of my friends and family are “nerds” and most of them do pretty nerdy or intellectual work that they find interesting and fulfilling. Even those who work in fields that don’t pay a lot seem to like their jobs. So I guess that I have always assumed the key for personal fulfillment is to find a job that you find interesting and pays you enough to meet your expenses. It is pretty much what other people in this thread seem to be saying. I find it odd that some want to insist that only certain types of jobs are meaningful or interesting. Computer Science is a great field but it seems silly to pursue it if you don’t enjoy it. The beauty of a college education is that with a little luck and self-knowledge, education can provide the freedom and opportunity to find a career that really interests you.

Almost none of my friends and family work in the corporate world and very few have super high salaries. In fact, the only family member who truly hated his job for awhile is the only family member who has had an extraordinary high-paying corporate job, but he quit after a few years and went back to a non-profit. It still paid well but not nearly as well as the high powered firm that he hated.

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