Will you buy an electric or hybrid car next?

Parents Forum Parent Cafe
2017

There’s a reasonable discussion to be had about the advantages and disadvantages of EVs.

Personally, I don’t think a WSJ editorial describing EVs as a form of “climate coercion” adds much to that discussion.

Nor do complaints from dealers, most of whom see EVs as a threat to their bottom line because margins are lower, maintenance needs/costs are a fraction of what they get from ICE drivers, and EV sales and service requires dealer investment in training and equipment.

As far as the concerns about range and charging infrastructure, I’ve been driving EVs for years now. I rent EVs whenever possible while traveling.

I just haven’t shared any of the concerns I see posted often here.

The 250ish+ range of most EVs is more than adequate for the vast majority of people. Not all people, of course. But it’s important to get specific when doing that analysis rather than take a more is better approach. More isn’t better for most people, and will not result in a meaningfully different driving experience. I suspect many of the folks (with no experience driving EVs) clamoring for more range now would probably opt for a less expensive EV with 250 mile range than a more expensive one with 500 mile range, once they had a bit of experience living with an EV.

As far as the charging infrastructure, it can improve but it’s pretty good right now in many areas. Colorado, west coast, northeast, populated parts of the Midwest are all pretty well served for CCS in my experience. New York was mentioned above. I’ve driven that area a lot. There are plenty of accessible fast chargers. Including Tesla which is now open to CCS in about a dozen locations in NY/CT.

The NEVI expansions are already rolling out so things will improve in terms of sites and availability. That is more about future demand.

Honestly, I think those with an open mind are best served by identifying a few trips and seeing what’s available. I’ve helped friends with this and they’re always surprised how easy it is. Now, if the plan is to road trip through ND there might be problems.

This is one of those areas that requires a bit of a paradigm shift in thinking. Once that’s made, for most people the concerns vanish. (Not ALL people. But just because my neighbor needs a vehicle to pull a camper 300 miles without stopping doesn’t mean the rest of us should be concerned about range or charging infrastructure).

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2018

I am on a tesla womens’ facebook group and several have posted pics of 0% or 1% left! I’d have a coronary!

2019

No question, the traditional ICE model is more profitable for dealers than an EV model. But that is a known-known. However, their complaints can’t be easily dismissed. Part of their historical function is to serve as a buffer for manufacturers, so manufacturers can just ship them EVs without asking, and when EVs start to fill up their lots, the local dealer is out of pocket for those cars.

2020

However, car dealers are big power brokers in local/state politics, so if they are unhappy it will have political consequences.

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2021

With a 50mpg hybrid, I regularly drive my car to where it says zero miles left.

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2022

The WSJ headline has dealers claiming “EVs aren’t selling”.

I saw similar claims in June and July as EV supply grew.

Yet in Q3, EV sales grew at a 50% YOY rate and share increased from 6.1% to 7.9% compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Further evidence of the difficulty selling EVs was the surge in sales at the end of the quarter, with September sales up 67% YOY for an 11% market share.

This is during a period of declining gas prices.

Odd that EVs “aren’t selling” yet their market share is increasing while YOY sales increases are on the order of 50%.

When will we see headlines about flat or negative sales for gasoline powered cars?

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2023

The article says sales are taking longer. The cars are sitting on the lots. Just because more sold doesn’t negate inventory build up.

  • “But that enthusiasm has stalled. Today, the supply of unsold BEVs (battery electric vehicles) is surging, as they are not selling nearly as fast as they are arriving at our dealerships — even with deep price cuts, manufacturer incentives, and generous government incentives.”

  • Dealers have a 103-day supply of EVs compared to 56 days for all cars. It takes them on average 65 days to sell an EV, about twice as long as for gas-powered cars.

The graphs show sales thru Sept. Did the increase continue into the 4th quarter?

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2024

Just like with colleges, it’s all about which EVs. We all know fewer people are applying to college yet the most selective are more selective than ever. I’ve been waiting on my Rivian for over a year and am still not at the front of the line because demand still exceeds supply. Many Kia dealers are still marking up the new EV9 above MSRP because of demand.

Perhaps that changes over time and if so, awesome. But so far I have deposits on 4 vehicles. Sure I get contacted from the dealers of the EV vehicles that are not as compelling, but I have no interest in those.

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2025

The WSJ tech columnists, who personally has an EV, recently did a test where she drove to over 200 charging stations in the greater LA area. Over 40% of the chargers had various issues from simply not working to not handshaking to doing extremely low charging rates despite being fast chargers. The issue is less about where there are chargers than the reliability of the network for the non-Tesla chargers. That needs to improve.

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2026
2027

Good point. And it appears that consumers can be fickle.

From the axios article I posted:

Zoom in: Ford’s once-hot F-150 Lightning electric pickup is one example.

  • Mickey Anderson, whose Baxter Auto Group has 20 dealerships in Nebraska, Missouri and Colorado, said when the Lightning was first announced, he had nearly 200 refundable orders from early “hand raisers.”
  • The list dwindled over time, resulting in 25 Lightning sales — out of a total of 1,000 F-series trucks he sold last year.
  • He’s currently got 12 Lightnings in stock — about a six-months’ supply — and he’s trying to unload them with up to $14,000 in Ford incentives and dealer discounts, in addition to a $7,500 federal tax credit.
  • “While the technology is absolutely brilliant, and I would argue world class, it doesn’t change the daily challenges that the American consumer has with an all-EV product today,” said Anderson, who tells Axios he is a big believer in EVs.
2028

That’s true of some models. I keep hearing from Ford that they will sell me the Mac-E with incentives to get it thousands below MSRP. In the meantime, I’ve been waiting my turn for a Rivian for a year now and still don’t even have an estimate on when mine will go into production.

2029

I watched her video. 30 locations. 126 stalls.

Honestly it’s hard to conclude much of anything.

She included an odd mix of stations (Evcs, really?).

Among her complaints was the difficulty of pulling the Rivian into a garage, credit card read errors, setting up an app is hard, handshake issues.

I’ve driven in this area dozens of times using EA, EVGo, and Tesla. Have never had to leave a location without charging for any of these reasons. Yes, sometimes one cable isn’t working so I use the other one. EA error message a few times just required a quick phone call and reboot.

I have no trouble installing an app on my phone and using it. I don’t consider plug and charge not working to be an error because I can start the charge with an app.

I would be interested to know how often, acting like a reasonable person rather than a YouTube influencer, she wasn’t able to charge at the 30 locations she visited. I have never had that issue and if it was as significant a problem as she implies, it would be a statistical miracle if I hadn’t encountered this at least a few times.

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2030

Of course, in terms of leadership in the area of climate policy and EV sales, CA hasn’t changed their position on the 2035 ban yet.

2031

Should we conclude anything based on 12 vehicles though?

Especially a fairly niche and extremely expensive (though I think very cool) model.

If that dealer’s inventory drops to 6 F-150s will the headline change? Or will it then become a story about how EVs are too expensive.

Here’s an Axios headline from July, the start of what turned out to be a record quarter for EVs:

“Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots”

https://www.axios.com/2023/07/10/unsold-electric-cars-are-piling-up-on-dealer-lots

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2032

Regarding the F-150 Lightning, perhaps Ford dealers should partner with solar installers. “Install solar with battery, pickup truck included with the battery!” (As in, use the truck as your home battery when you are at home.)

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2033

Again sales doesn’t mean cars aren’t taking longer to sell and thus sitting longer and the dealers are carrying those costs. I posted the Ford example because there was discussion of certain models being more popular. That Ford truck was initially popular….now maybe not so much.

For the record I don’t care. I will not buy an EV, ever, if I can manage it. I’m against bans of ICE cars. Enjoy your EV.

2034

That seems like such a hard line. Ever is a long time. It feels like your opposition to EVs really has nothing to do with the actual driving and/or owning experience and more to do with identity of some kind. (see article linked above. You do you, but you may be cutting off your nose to spite your face.

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2035

Sure, I understand there’s a difference between increasing sales and large inventories.

But the latter is not, as some dealers want to claim, a sign of stagnant or shrinking demand.

Few businesses would complain about 50% YOY sales growth. Especially if sales in their primary product line was flat or negative YOY.

The supply issue is a result of robust growth in manufacturing capacity and manufacturer projections made at a time when gas prices were much higher.

That should eventually mean good deals for consumers.

These dealers had no problem marking EVs up $5-10k over sticker when supplies were tight. Hard to feel sorry for them now.

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2036

My husband is eyeing the Maverick hybrid.

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