This is interesting. I wonder if the AO knows that for unhooked applicants at a school like Williams, there are so many that are functionally the same in terms of qualifications that they prefer to make their selections only when they can “see” the entire applicant pool… that with ED kids, they get clarity with yield, but they are locking in too much of their class before they know what other RD options they might have … and perhaps Williams is really not that worried about yield 
This is all speculation - but I also suspect that kids deferred from ED feel somewhat more negative about a school, when eventually accepted in RD round, than kids that just applied RD?
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This is a really interesting thought. If true for Williams, would it be true for other LAC’s?
Maybe. Williams deferred 144 students from RD (15.2% of applicants) and only accepted 14 of those in the RD round:
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Most LACs have always been upfront that they admit the same applicants in both rounds. They don’t lower the standards because someone is willing to commit to attend through ED.
Personally, I think there is always a tiny edge in ED just because you are one of the pieces the puzzle gets built around. If they admit a tuba player ED, the tuba player RD is not bringing them something they need. It’s not that simple, but you get the gist.
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That’s what I have always thought as well (better to be the ED tuba than the RD tuba) - but what if Williams is moving away from being willing to give the ED applicant the edge? And saying we won’t make our “tuba” choice till we see all available tubas in RD?
Makes sense. If they were to do that, maybe they should just get rid of ED and add EA.
Then you’re still no worse off by applying ED if it’s your first choice!
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True! Other than the heartburn of being deferred to RD …
Yes. I expect that more colleges are going to move that direction.
But as I type … after the supreme court comes out with the decision most of us expect, college admissions is going to be thrown into another period of flux, coming so shortly after the COVID-test optional revolution. So really, I have no idea what the next few years will look like in elite college admissions, but I suspect that there will be much more of an emphasis on markers of need (like Questbridge, Pell Grant eligible kids). And there’s lots of evidence that high-need students are often less likely to apply ED.
Hi Shelby, what’s the math behind the RD acceptance rate of 4%?
It was in the RD rejection letter: they accepted 1 out of 25 applicants.
Not sure what they are talking about when they say 1 in 25 accepted…the RD acceptance rate for Class of 2027 is 8.3% based on what Williams has publicly reported:
RD Apps: 10,315
RD Admitted: 858
RD Acceptance rate: 8.3%
ED Apps: 943
ED Admitted: 255
ED Acceptance rate: 27%
Total Apps: 11,258
Total Admitted: 1,113
Overall Acceptance Rate: 9.8%
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Just repeating the language in the letter.
probably referring to the admit numbers strictly in the RD round
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Regarding other LACs, applying ED is definitely more of a bump because they do take into account your level of interest and yield considerations. Schools like Hamilton and Bowdoin which have ED1 and ED2 (unlike Williams and Amherst) may be a better strategic choice if your are on the borderline for Williams and Amherst.
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That is what we need to ascertain. What is the strategic best choice - but we have some time!
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Schools such as Colgate and Vassar, which appear in this Forbes article with Williams, can make appealing choices as well:
Here is my 2 cents. We really did not believe my son had a chance at getting in. He is 1st gen, we are middle class, so not full pay, but also not needing full aid. We never considered ED because my son was clueless on where he wanted to go and what he wanted to study. He did apply to WOW, but was not accepted. In the letter they sent telling him he was not accepted to WOW they offered him an application fee waiver. We decided it would be best for him to apply RD, but send his application in by the ED deadline to show how interested he was in attending Williams. We also weighed all the pros and cons of applying test optional since he was only able to take the ACT once the beginning of sophomore year and felt he could have scored a point or two higher. In the end he decided to lay all the cards on the table and let Williams decide if he would be a good fit. He was accepted RD and has been very happy with his choice. Good luck to you whatever you decide and wherever she lands. 
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This all very good information, at the end of the day, the best strategy is to lay all of your cards on the table and not over think the ED vs RD strategy game. For selective schools, you should apply ED if that is truly your first choice school and not apply ED to another school just because your numbers are more in the line with a less competitive school. ED pools are becoming increasingly competitive at schools like Williams and the state flagships like UVA and UNC and there bump that may have existed a few years ago has evaporated what the increased apps and test optional dynamics. Thus, ED really is just a matter of your preference, apply and hope for the best.
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The RD only acceptance rate was 8.3% based on the numbers Williams released, see my post above.