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Your apparent focus on applicant Desire (vs. the institution's priorities for the freshman class) as the key dynamic (and the <em>reason</em> to apply ED). The sureness/commitment on the student's part is not not driving the admission <em>decisions</em>. In prioritizing applications, the institution couldn't care less whether the applicant wants to Take Them To The Prom.
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<p>We may be viewing this in two different ways -- the way many kids approach ED and the way I think ED should be approached. To me, "loving" the school, in and of itself, is not a sufficient reason for applying to a school. I think ED should be used for a school where the student is a good admissions match: both in terms of qualifications and "fit". In other words, ED is best used when the student is a solid candidate.</p>
<p>As for schools, that "couldn't care less", I wouldn't apply to those schools ED, EA, SCEA, or RD. I don't honestly understand why anyone applies to a school that "couldn't care less". If they "couldn't care less" when they are trying to sell you, you may find that they indeed could care even less after they have your money.</p>
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I see ED as an equal match game, college-to-student, only for exceptionally qualified students and/or those with some highly unusual asset to offer.
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<p>What you are describing is EA. Because the college gets virtually nothing from it, only stand-out applicants have a chance of being accepted. A well-targeted ED application is most beneficial to an applicant who is not a stand-out applicant, either in terms of exceptional qualifications or unusual asset. Obviously, those things are still desirable. However, because the school gets something of real value (guaranteed yield), they are very likely to take a nice, solid applicant in the ED round.</p>
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Sureness & commitment prior to an Early acceptance may not translate 5 months later.
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<p>To be perfectly honest, the decision-making I've seen around here in late April has been pretty scary. The closer to May 1, the more kids seem to get themselves tied into knots, mired deeper and deeper into insignificant details, like thrashing around in quicksand. Gotta love the classic: "where should I go, U Michigan or St. Johns?" Or, any two schools that are such polar extremes, you have to wonder what is going on in the poor kid's head?</p>
<p>If a preference doesn't reveal itself early on, so be it. But, if it does, and, if thorough research and an overnight visit doesn't shake that preference, then Nov. 1st is as good a time as any to choose a college. Maybe a better time -- the calm before the storm and before the fear of high school coming to an end rears its ugly head. </p>
<p>I think a lot of the indecision we see here results from kids being hammered by the pressure of the decision, to the point where they lack the confidence to go with the "big picture" and their gut. Honestly, if I read one more kid trying to choose a college based on a desperate attempt to determine which great school has the "higher-ranked" Economics department so they can get into an MBA program six years from now, I think I'll scream. For all they know, they'll be a missionary in Africa six years by then.</p>