;) You know what to do (Dartmouth, Cornell, Yale, others)

Chance Me / Match Me!
1

<p>There are many colleges I'm applying to (they'll be at the bottom). Please chance me.</p>

<p>GPA:
3.98 unweighted
4.60 weighted</p>

<p>Senior courses:
AP English Lit
AP Biology
AP Calculus BC
Physics Honors
Newspaper
Introduction to Art (only because I need it to graduate, FYI).</p>

<p>Rank:
currently 001/ about 550</p>

<p>ACT:
English:34
Math:34
Reading:32
Science:31
Writing:9
Composite: 33</p>

<p>SAT Subject tests:
Chemistry: 750
Math Level 2: 760</p>

<p>AP:
US Govt: 5
Calculus AB: 5
Chemistry: 4
English Lang: 4</p>

<p>Extracurriculars/Awards
Fourth place in Mock Trial regionals twice
Captain of Mock Trial team
Editor-in-Chief of school newspaper
AP Scholar with Honor
Founder/President of Gay-Straight Alliance
Member of community service group on campus
Has completed 1000+ hours of community service at a hospital
Internship at world-acclaimed research center
Chosen for competitive theatre appreciation group sophomore year
Member of National Honor Society
Member of Amnesty International chapter on campus</p>

<p>Race:
One-half Asian-American (Indian)
One-half Caucasian</p>

<p>State Residency:
Has lived in Arizona for 9+ years.</p>

<p>Teacher Recs:
One decent, one great. </p>

<p>Essay:
All of them were pretty nice. I'd say at least above average. </p>

<p>Colleges:
UC Berkeley (OOS)
University of Washington (OOS)-ACCEPTED
University of Michigan (OOS, applied 12/6)
Tufts
Yale
Cornell
Dartmouth
Brandeis
University of Arizona (safety) ACCEPTED</p>

2

<p>Should be in at UCBerkeley, University of Michigan, possibly Dartmouth, in at Cornell, in at Brandeis. Tufts is up in the air as they look for very specific types…it depends on your essay on that one, you have the stats they like though. Good luck. Yale is too hard to predict.</p>

3

<p>Mas chances por favor?</p>

4

<p>Great GPA/rank, good scores, good ECs/awards. I would say match for Berkeley, but since you’re OOS, it’s probably a reach. You do have a good shot though, as long as your essays were great.</p>

<p>What is your intended major? Linguistics?</p>

5

<p>Well, for admissions purposes, I put undecided on all of my applications.</p>

6

<p>Bump. TEN CHARACTERS.</p>

7

<p>you should be good at cornell, berk, michi</p>

8

<p>Heh. Thanks. :D</p>

9

<p>UC Berkeley (OOS)- 80%
University of Michigan- 100%
Tuft-80% (only cuz of tufts syndrome)
Yale- 25%
Cornell-75%
Dartmouth-50%
Brandeis- 100%</p>

10

<p>

</p>

<p>What? Sorry, but no out-of-state student can consider those safeties. Not to mention 100% generally means open admission…</p>

11

<p>i agree with kyle. Mootpoint has really inflated predictions. Even instate, it would probably be lower than that</p>

12

<p>okay… on second thought, i would make UC Berkeley like 60%, but the UMich 100% still stands.</p>

13

<p>bum 10 chars</p>

14

<p>Here are my calculated percent chance for your situational admission profile (NOTE that this is devised from my own formula, not simply, "Oh 60% of kids are accepted there):</p>

<p>UC Berkeley (OOS) - 63%
University of Washington (OOS)-ACCEPTED 81% (you’re already in though, so it doesn’t matter)
University of Michigan (OOS, applied 12/6) - 76%
Tufts - 62%
Yale - 14%
Cornell - 15%
Dartmouth -19%
Brandeis - 78%
University of Arizona (safety) ACCEPTED - 93% (again, already accepted, so…)</p>

15

<p>Just curious, why do you think I have a better shot at Dartmouth than at Cornell? I know that technically more people get into Cornell than into Dartmouth…</p>

<p>Also, as I found out, my chances at the University of Arizona were actually 100% (they have this option in place where they guarantee you admission if you’re in the top 25% of your graduating class.)</p>

16

<p>

[/quote]
UC Berkeley (OOS) - 63%

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Where are you getting the ones-digit numbers? That seems a bit too precise. (And to say 63% shot at a university where only 10% or so of the total admits are OOS is a bit out there.)</p>

17

<p>Hey, the system works. I didn’t say that s/he was definitely in or out of anywhere. S/he could get into every place or rejected from every place (or any combination of the two), and it would still be within my predicted range. I don’t give any 100% or 0% answers; they are meant to be used as a likelihood that you’ll get into each one, a rough idea. A 63% chance indicates that you have a slightly higher than average chance of getting accepted, whereas a 6% chance indicates that it is highly unlikely, not impossible, but not likely. Like I said, although it is calculated into my formula, my chance predictors are not solely based on percents admitted to each university. Thus a person with a 2.0 GPA isn’t going to have the same 12.5% likelihood of getting accepted as a person with a 4.0 GPA. The 2.0 person may have a <2% whereas the other person would have a 16% chance (just giving examples here . . . MANY more factors go into the actual calculation). </p>

<p><a href=“And%20to%20say%2063%%20shot%20at%20a%20university%20where%20only%2010%%20or%20so%20of%20the%20total%20admits%20are%20OOS%20is%20a%20bit%20out%20there.”>quote</a>

[/quote]
</p>

<p>The above should explain why ^ Perhaps only 10% of the total admits are out of state, but this person’s chance may be greater than other out of state applicants based on their information, statistics, ECs, recs, test scores, etc.</p>

18

<p>Heh. I didn’t really think that I had much of a shot at UC Berkeley, but oh well. Maybe they’ll cut me some slack because I’m an Arizona resident and our universities aren’t all that great (seriously, there are only three “real” universities in our entire state!)</p>

19

<p>cranberriez:</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>No, it doesn’t. Read on.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>Well, of course not, since %s don’t say whether the person will get in or not; it tells the persons chances.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>That’s true, but it’s also true if he/she were rejected if I gave him/her a 99% chance, or accepted with a 1% chance. They’re all “within range” because none of them actually predict an outcome; rather, they predict the odds of a possibility.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>It’s not easy to be that precise about this. That’s why, on CC, people generally go by 10-percent intervals. If you go into the ones place, you’re increasing the precision tenfold. Here’s generally how the scale works:</p>

<p>100% - guaranteed/open admission
90+% - safety
80% - safe match
70% - match
60% - high match
50% - slight reach (could go either way)
40% - reach
30% - reach
20% - big reach
10% - nearly impossible</p>

<p>That, to me, seems precise enough.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>That’s good. They shouldn’t be. But you can gauge your chances with those stats in mind. Many people don’t seem to understand (and you do) that % admitted can not tell you the % chance. So Berkeley, for example, admits 50-60% of its ELC applicants; that doesn’t mean an ELC applicant has a 50-60% chance. In order for you to say that, admissions would have to be random events; they’re not (basic statistics). But here’s the counterargument: when the stats are at extremes, you can make safer judgments on one’s chances. So, for example, UCSC admits 99.2% of its ELC applicants; you can justifiably say that if someone is an ELC student, then UCSC is a safety (as safety is defined as >90%).</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>To continue the point above: when the statistic–10%–is at an extreme, you can make judgments about it. You can justifiably say it’s probably a reach.</p>

<p>But that’s just a small argument. I based my judgment on my own past experience and knowledge: the OOS applicant pool is very self-selective, yet only has a 20% or so acceptance rate. Generally, you have to be extremely qualified to get in (as I’ve seen in many, many cases). UC has an obligation to take in-state students first, as that’s its main purpose; in-state admission is extremely competitive (40,000+ applicants), so it’s difficult enough to get in. As such OOS is even more difficult to get in. For the majority of OOS (and in-state, for that matter) applicants, it’s a reach. Much of the same can be said of other publics, too, as they have the same obligations.</p>