A quick word about chances threads. I understand the desire to find some order and predictability in this crazy, mixed up world of applying to boarding schools. I know it’s coming from a place of such hope and excitement. Bravo to you for caring so deeply about your future.
From where I sit, as a middle-aged woman with lots of years of life experience, I want to say that unfortunately the most important parts of your application, we cannot see. Things like your personality, your essays, your kindness, your sense of humor, your charisma, your quirkiness, your human-ness. (We get teeny tiny glimpses of this maybe in your posts, but really very little.) I promise you, schools are admitting people, not stats.
Imagine for a moment, I am setting you up a date. You tell me all about your job, your salary, your eye and hair color, your amazing house, and you tell me that you are a romantic, and that you love walks on the beach and you are outdoorsy and love the mountains. And then you ask me: will my date fall in love with me?
I can’t answer that beyond: well there’s nothing about you that seems to be a total dealbreaker.
The person I’m setting you up with also seems to be outdoorsy, and likes the beach too. So, it sounds like it’s at best a “maybe.” But can I with any sense of accuracy predict whether you will hit it off? No. I cannot. I can only say if there are things that lead me to believe that you won’t hit it off. I cannot predict chemistry. So I can predict “NO” and I can predict “MAYBE.” Nothing better than that.
Chancing schools is a bit similar. We can only say if we see red flags. That’s it. After you clear that hurdle, then none of us is really in a position to offer any prediction worth more than the coin we can use to flip.
I say this not to be discouraging, but to explain why often these chances posts don’t get the response desired, or any response at all. It feels fruitless to write back “no clue dude.”
I’m not trying to dissuade anyone from writing chances threads (heck there is a whole sub-forum here for them!). But just to right-size them. They are fun parlor games, with not much predictive value. The value is in: 1. The community eyeing some yellow flags that the wise OP would then mitigate and 2. Seeing you young folks smothering support and love on each other, which is my favorite.
Carry on, warriors.
PS. unlike with your own parents, you are welcome to ignore anything I say that doesn’t ring true for you.