I’ll add to the chancing conversation that it is not random, but it IS unpredictable. I think confusing the two is a mistake made by many applicants, and there is a big difference.
I’ll also add that the go/no-go decision is largely driven by factors we cannot see in a chance me. (In other words, which trombone player is first in the acceptance line, or which boy from northern cal is higher on the list.)
and for my thoughts on that, I share my definitely-not-pinning post last year on the topic.