This is my primary concern. This makes Johns Hopkins a high reach.
However, I would only apply ED anywhere if it is definitely your #1 choice, and if you know you can afford it. It appears that this does apply to JHU.
I would mostly focus on two things. One is making sure that you have solid safeties that you are happy with. The other is making sure that if you stick with your plan to get an MD and are accepted to medical school, then you will be able to graduate with a manageable or even better no debt.
Don’t be surprised if 4 or 5 years from now medical school costs more than $100,000 per year.
Even if you attend a university where your years of excellent grades were not needed for admissions, the effort that you put in during high school will help you a LOT in terms of being ready for tough premed classes. Do not be surprised if even at UTD you find freshman year premed classes which are full of very strong students but that have a few really tough mid term exams with class averages in the 50’s or worse even among these very strong students. The effort that you put in up to now will prepare you for this and will not be wasted at all regardless of where you end up for your bachelor’s degree.
In terms of having one so-so semester with COVID being a contributing factor: I suspect that this was probably quite common. Some students who were able to hold it together at the peak of the pandemic still report that it was a very lousy time.
This makes good sense to me.
I do not see anything here that would prevent you from being called “doctor” somewhere around about 9 or 10 years from now. To me it looks like you are doing well.