So, whaddya think? My kid’s school will allow him to defer up through mid July. We’re of course hoping that school will be back to normal by then. He says he’ll defer and wait a year to start if there are restrictions on social interaction - he’s only 17, and he has other things that he could do during a gap year.
Chance colleges for re-opening completely with no restrictions in Fall 2021.
I do believe a lot of people will be vaccinated by next fall and the students will be able to return to schools. A lot of professors are getting vaccinated now, so by fall they should be able to have in person classes. That’s my bet. I am booking my vacations. 
I think it will be better but my guess is masking, distancing etc…will still be a part of campus life.
75% chance of being back. Still weird tweaks depending on admin and local cases.
25%chance third wave/waves from elsewhere or virus cannot be contained as too few folks have taken vaccine. There is also the real possibility that the vaccine doesn’t work long enough to fully douse the spread.
I think it will be closer to normal than now but not all the way back. If vaccines become readily available by summer then I expect most schools will require them of returning students. I’m surprised by the post that says many profs are getting vaccinated already. Where I live it’s only been healthcare workers and nursing home residents. First responders start next week. I don’t know where university profs and students are on the priority list but I’m guessing they are pretty far down unless they overlap into another group. Mask wearing inside will probably still be required since not everyone can be vaccinated. It won’t be until the virus really dies out that we can get completely back to normal.
I could see needing a booster every 6 months, since it appears that immunity after infection wanes after six months. I’m very hopeful that the schools will require immunization in order to attend, and that school will be back to normal. Now, if the virus mutates to resist the vaccine, that’ll be a disaster, but it appears that the vaccine causes the body to resist a crucial component of the virus, that is so basic to the virus that they don’t expect it to be able to mutate into a resistant strain.
I am confident that everything will be back to normal but wearing mask becomes a fashion then.
I wouldn’t bet the farm on it. At the speed that this vaccination is being distributed, we should all have herd immunity in about the year 2040. Masks are unhealthy to wear day-in and day-out, and it’s simply not a way of life for any college student, or person for that mater. Plus, when you read the actual disclaimer on the mask box, it says, “Not effective at stopping the transmission or reception of viruses.” Cloth masks, you might as well be wearing fishnet stockings over your face.
The problem I see is that people are hiding from the virus, because the CDC tells us to. Now the virus is mutating faster than we can reach herd immunity. We reach herd immunity literally EVERY year with the flu. And we have a government, who we can’t even trust to regulate cabbage, telling us they’re going to save the day. Look no further than flu shots.
Sources?
I expect/hope relative norm by next Fall. That depends on those distributing the vaccine learning and getting better - they’re certainly not on pace right now.
None of the research I’ve seen indicates this. Source?
Modena recently projected “at least a year”
Frankly, very little, if any, of coolguy40’s post is accurate, it’s not even worth responding to.
Not a study but just of interest, one of H’s colleagues had Covid in March. He donates blood every 3 months and the Red Cross screens for antibodies. He had them at the 3 and 6 month marks but is still waiting to hear from his 9 month donation.
There’s a lot more out there about this, that immunity after natural infection can only be depended upon for about 6 months, if that. Natural infection ALWAYS gives equal or better immunity than an immunization. So that would mean every 6 month vaccination, certainly at least yearly, which would be totally fine with me! Better than the life we have now.
I haven’t seen any info from moderna or anyone else based on clinical info that the vaccine lasts x, or y timeframe. I’d love to see pure scientific data from any source ( prefer non vendor but if thats it thst would be fine).
If you have it or know the source please cite it or tge publication info abd we can google it.
I did see some articles on masks being dangerous. But honestly I’m not interested in that line of thinking. It’s so easy to wear a mask, even if it helps just a bit, I’m going to do it.
Not true.
Son applying to top 5 PhD programs for F21. All at schools that are also T5 undergrad. Already accepted to the only one that sent out any decisions so far. None of the PhD programs expect in person classes for F21. Cautiously hopeful but by no means overly optimistic on chances for S22. Consensus was that until vaccine is sufficiently available that the schools can “require” vaccination for attendance, in person classes are unlikely.
The article you linked to
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-antibody/uk-study-finds-evidence-of-waning-antibody-immunity-to-covid-19-over-time-idUKKBN27C009
has this:
“She” is Wendy Barclay, head of the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London.
I think it will depend on what your (or your son’s) definition of ‘normal’ is. Masks? Yes. 100k people at a football game? No. Huge parties? It will depend on the school as some schools had them this year when they weren’t allowed.
I think many schools will still limit dorms to singles, still offer more classes online than they did in the past, still restrict class size.
A lot of profs are older than 65, I believe. So it’s not too surprising they are already being vaccinated. And they are surely in the same category as teachers.
Please give us some credible links to support this claim. Frankly, I’m sure this is 100% false. Surgeons all over the world probably would dispute this.
I believe I just read today that Moderna says the vaccine will give protection for a year. However, I think it’s Moderna saying this. I hope it’s true.
Let’s hope she’s right! Meanwhile, Moderna announced they expect a year at least of immunity - my bet is six months on both Pfizer and Moderna. Surely, the body makes antibodies to spike protein in response to infection, and yet that antibody titer wanes to the point of susceptibility to reinfection.
I’m actually fascinated to learn how long the typical person retains antibodies after infection (vaccination too). I still have them six months after covid (asymptomatic) as do my extended family members who have been tested for antibodies. My friend just had a physical and has antibodies nine months after infection.
There is so much we do not know. To be clear, I am not suggesting the presence of antibodies makes one immune or prevents contagion or should exempt from vaccination; we all still have so much to learn and it will be years before we have definitive answers. But I am hopeful the antibodies plus vaccination prove to be effective, especially for the older generation like my parents. They are group 1b and I hope they are scheduled soon. My father had a very difficult covid experience and continues to be affected in multiple ways. I don’t think he would survive another case.