There is data surrounding graduation expectations with respect to student characteristics. For instance, Washington Monthly explains its methodology for how it derives its expectations.
comparing the reported graduation rate to a predicted graduation rate based on the percentage of Pell recipients, the percentage of students receiving student loans, the admit rate, the racial/ethnic and gender makeup of the student body, the number of students (overall and full-time), and whether a college is primarily residential. We estimated this predicted graduation rate measure in a regression model separately for each classification using average data from the last three years
In looking at the full data set from Washington Monthly, these were the top-performing state flagships in terms of graduation rate performance (i.e. actual graduation rate as compared to expected) among the top 120 national universities (ranked by graduation rate performance):
- U. of New Hampshire: 78% (69% expected)
- U. of Oregon: 73% (65% expected)
- U. of Alaska - Fairbanks: 33% (26% expected)
- Indiana University - Bloomington: 78% (72% expected)
- U. of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign: 86% (80% expected)
- U. of Wisconsin - Madison: 86% (80% expected)
- U. of Delaware: 81% (75% expected)
- U. of Utah: 69% (64% expected)
- U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities: 80% (74% expected)
- U. of Florida: 88% (83% expected)
- Penn State: 75% (70% expected)
- U. of Virginia: 94% (90% expected)
- UNC - Chapel Hill: 90% (86% expected)
- U. of Connecticut: 83% (79% expected)
This excludes some schools which people might argue are flagships or nearly, like Michigan State, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, etc. And most of the colleges in the top 120 are public, nonflagship schools.
Some other state flagships for comparison (threw Stony Brook and Binghamton in due to SUNY debate):
- Stony Brook: 74% (expected 81%)
- U. of Texas - Austin: 81% (expected 87%)
- U. of Alabama: 67% (expected 70%)
- U. of Kansas: 64% (expected 66%)
- U. of Kentucky: 64% (expected 66%)
- U. of New Mexico: 50% (expected 52%)
- U. of Mississippi: 63% (expected 65%)
- UC-Berkeley: 93% (expected 95%)
- U. of Arizona: 63% (expected 64%)
- U. of Nebraska - Lincoln: 67% (68% expected)
- SUNY Binghamton: 82% (expected 83%)
- UCLA: 93% (expected 93%)
- U. of South Carolina - Columbia: 73% (expected 73%)
- Louisiana State: 68% (expected 67%)
- U. of Maine: 59% (expected 58%)
- Rutgers - New Brunswick: 82% (expected 80%)
- U. of Iowa: 71% (expected 69%)