<p>TX, maybe, but not CA! There may be many schools, but check out their numbers!</p>
<p>Kristin</p>
<p>Please listen to those who have already been through the process; you are being far too analytical about a process that is anything but. There really IS a good chance of being shut out with a list like the one that you are proposing, are you truly prepared for that to happen? </p>
<p>Taking a position of Mizzou or bust is really a dangerous crap shoot especially without more “legitimate applications” (thanks BDM I may use that again ;)) and saying that only the truly elite would be enough to sway you from Mizzou is fool hearty at best. I truly wish you the best but am concerned that you are painting yourself into a corner without an exit strategy that will ultimately make you happy. I’ve personally seen two kids with remarkable GPAs, MCATs and ECs (and UG degrees from Harvard and Penn) end up at schools far below where they thought they would be…it happens.</p>
<p>With that, I am now off my soapbox…good luck!</p>
<p>Mike, I definitely agree with you that having a set of “legitimate apps” seems like by far the best idea. I think it is probably the best approach to apply broadly. And call me crazy, but I kind of do think I’m applying broadly: it seems like the one school that I really want to go to–Mizzou–is the one that I should have the best shot at (yes, eadad, I know nothing’s a sure thing or even a sort of sure thing and that freak accidents of kids not getting in who should get in do happen), I have another in-state school that I also should have a good shot at, plus 4 privates that fit me stats-wise. Do you really think I need more than 6 schools, when in the end I just get 1? For whatever reason (call me stubborn and naive, perhaps) I just can’t wrap my head around needing more than that. </p>
<p>To somemom: the prospect of wishing I had those hours and money back is a huge concern for me in terms of applying to more than 13 schools. Most kids at my school apply to less than 10, and I’ve never heard any complaints about it. From a “am I in line with my peers?” perspective, I feel like I’m overdoing it already. Plus, there’s a very real aspect of “Do I want to spend a hundred hours preparing essays and thousands of dollars paying for applications and interviewing experiences?” just so that I can have other options (when I don’t really want other options per se, yet I know I need them)I’m sure at some point, the time and money spent on applying is just another drop in the bucket. But I’m not to the “drop in a bucket” point yet–on the contrary, I’m a relatively broke college kid about to start my last year of undergrad…which call me a sentimental girl, but having time to enjoy myself this year is high on my list of things to do.</p>
<p>And finally, to eadad. I know your soapbox is primarily a soapbox, so I’m not bothered by what you wrote (in case you were worried). I’m surprised you think I’m being far too analytical though, especially when it was at the behest of this group that I take a more analytical approach to this. While it may be true that I could be rejected to each of the schools I apply, I’d MUCH rather deal with that if it happens and focus my current energy on staying positive and optimistic. Because while that’s true, it’s also true that I could get into one, six, or any number of schools I apply to–and keeping that as my focus keeps me sane. So the cynical side is there, but I’m purposely shutting it down to a very meager size. I think “Mizzou or bust” is only a dangerous crapshoot when it’s literally that–Mizzou or nothing. However, I know you’ve been following this thread closely enough to know that that’s not the case in reality, and is only the case in my head (ie, that Mizzou’s currently the school I want to go to the most). And while I bet it sucked to see those 2 kids end up somewhere other than where they wanted, I’d guess you’ve seen 10x that many end up thrilled with where they go, and I hope to be part of the latter group.</p>
<p>To all: the tough love is appreciated and the advice I’ve received here has been the best I’ve seen yet. But this is a tough process, and I very much feel like I’m going it alone (regardless of whether that’s true), so I have a feeling a little encouragement would go a long way. Out of my 2 best friends who are also premeds, one of them is in a combined degree program and guaranteed a spot at Mizzou, and the other bombed the MCAT first time around so is now a few months behind me. I’m not looking for praise, or something artificial, but a couple-of-posts-long break from “you must revise your list or you won’t get in anywhere!” would be fantastic :)</p>
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<p>Sorry but I don’t know much about MPHs. Does it only take 1 year to get an MPH? I thought it took 2 years to get an MPH.</p>
<p>The problem is that I think you have about a 30% chance at Mizzou. The process has so much randomness and unpredictability built into it.</p>
<p>Basically, my goal is to get you up to about a 95% chance of one admission, or less than a 5% chance at universal rejection. Hypothetically, let’s assume that BU is a 10% admissions chance, Mayo is 2%, and Georgetown is 8%.</p>
<p>So those four schools combine to give you:
70% * 90% * 98% * 92% = 57% chance of rejection all around.</p>
<p>Let’s say we can find you a ton of schools where you have 20% odds. How many would you want? Realistically:
57% * 80% ^ x = 5%</p>
<p>If you solve for x, you get *eleven<a href=“plus%20Mizzou,%20so%20twelve”>/I</a>. Using the recommended eight “match” schools gives you an 12% chance of universal rejection. Using just six gives you a 19% chance at universal rejection.</p>
<p>BDM,
Your calc of rejection chance is off a lot. It is not possible to have chance of rejection at 57% when the highest chance of acceptance is 10%. 57% chance of rejection means 43% chance of acceptance. If you do the same calc. for acceptance rate, it is nowhere near 43%. Kristin, elax, apply and enjoy very few weeks of summer left before school starts. The best of luck, Kristin!</p>
<p>I stand by the calculation.</p>
<hr>
<p>Hypothetically:
Mizzou: 30% chance of admission
BU: 10%
Mayo: 2%
Georgetown: 8%</p>
<p>Overall Chance of Admission: 43%</p>
<hr>
<p>Add in so-called “match schools” with 20% chance of admission:</p>
<p>Five more: 81% chance of one admission
Seven more: 88% chance of one admission
Eleven more: 95% chance of one admission</p>
<p>[Probability</a> of A or B (1 of 3)](<a href=“http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/A136602.html]Probability”>Probability of A or B (1 of 3))</p>
<p>BDM,
You are saying that applying to 15 schools with 10% chance at each will result in 80% overall chance of acceptance to any of these 15 schools. I definitely would not advise my D. to do so, because I (and my D) would not believe in 80%. Of the wall estimate would seems to be more accurate than that.</p>
<p>…and it also means that applying to 25 schools with 5% chance at each will result in 72% chance of being accepted. Sorry for having too much fun.</p>
<p>bdm:</p>
<p>Prob theory only holds IFF the chances are purely random (such as the roll of the dice in your link). But admissions are not random. Someone with low grades, low test scores, low ECs, low personality, and crappy essays has close to a zero % chance. Someone with average stats, but low/no EC’s, no/low personality also has close to zero % chance at individual schools. Someone with great numbers and essays, but poor recs has a very low probability. But let’s say it’s a 1% chance. Then by your estimation, applying to 100+ schools should result in at least one admission (ignoring the instate/OOS factors), correct?</p>
<p>I love math and that’s the correct method & calculation for the probabilities. Granted, each school has varying qualifications and so it’s technically only accurate if your application is in the middle average for accepted students at each school (which wouldn’t be the case since each school varies while your app doesn’t) - but the value could be made better by altering the acceptance rates used to tailor to whether you feel you are above or below the average student accepted.</p>
<p>^The events are independent. So, applying to 100 schools with chance at each of 2% will result in 2% chance of being accepted. That is why if you have .01% chance at any Med School because of your incredibly low stats or whatever else is wrong, applying to all American Medical Schools will not improve your chances. But you would have fun writing essays and paying fees and might get a job as counsultant. I just wish that application fee was not as high as it is.</p>
<p>bluebayou #571: That’s why you don’t just use a school’s admissions percentage. You’ll notice I’ve adjusted the probabilities upward to reflect a medium-strong applicant – e.g. there are no medical schools out there with 20% admissions rates.</p>
<hr>
<p>And no, your calculation is wrong. Somebody with 1% chance at each of 100 applications would be:</p>
<p>(100% - 99%^100) = 63% chance of 1 admission</p>
<p>Admission rate is not the same as chance of acceptance. And telling somebody who has mere 1% chance at each of 100 schools, that if he applied to all, then his chance of 1acceptance is 63% is misleading, it is not 63%.</p>
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<p>Why? That’s what the math indicates.</p>
<p>BDM is correct. But, engineers would count 1% as null in cases like this. 
If that happens to 75 schools for an applicant, his chance drops to 22%. </p>
<p>For a more practical case as follows:</p>
<p>One IS school: 70%
10 OOS or private ones: 10% at each</p>
<p>The probability of sucess would be about 90%.</p>
<p>Applying to one, not 100, school with admission rate of 2% would result in 2% chance of being accepted. Think about it this way,</p>
<p>if you apply to one school with admission rate of 2%, we both agree you have a 2% chance of getting accepted, right? (disregard individuality of applicants) Now, if you were to add one school and are now applying to two schools, logic leads that you would then have a higher likelyhood of gaining an acceptance to at least one of them since you are now applying to two. Although they may both have a 2% acceptance rate, logic should say that you are more likely to gain an acceptance if you apply to two verses one.</p>
<p>So applying to 100 should result in a larger predicted value than the 2% associated with applying to only one.</p>
<p>Ace: I think it’s very rare that any school is ever going to be 70%. I had numbers which were WAY above any school in my state. I applied to seven and got into one – where I was, of all things, a legacy.</p>
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<p>That’s not the point. IMO, it is a mis-application of numbers. On this we will have to agree to disagree. Heck even the supporters of this application change their rules:</p>
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<p>Bingo, (and logic fail).</p>
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<p>Obviously, using a different probability theorem/proof, (one designed for engineers by engineers?) :)</p>
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<p>Agree in qualitative terms, but disagree on the math to get there (quantitative).</p>