<p>How much weight would you say legacy bears?</p>
<p>Although it’s hard to enumerate, how about an example: if a medical school had an acceptance rate of 8% and you have a parent who attended that medical school, how much more likely would you be to get in? Would legacy put you in the range of in-state if you are OOS? etc.</p>
<p>bluebayou, but we’re only discussing the methodology behind it. MiamiDAP is saying that applying to 100 is still 2%, not more. As for the improper application, all we would need is an accurate way to determine what percentage value applies to you given your individual application - if you have those values accurate, then all should be good to go. </p>
<p>I think values that would be very accurate is if you know the average qualities of accepted students at a school (avg MCAT, GPA, amount of EC’s, research, etc.) and are also in that exact same range. If you are in that range, then the exact value given for acceptance rate by that school should be fairly accurate to use - no need to adjust values. If you’re not in the average range, then that’s where you have to start predicting and numbers start skewing, but it’s still a proper and useful methodology.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>. .</p>
<p>It’ll vary from school to school. I was way above this school’s numbers, too, and it’s still in (more or less) my hometown.</p>
<p>Off the top of my head, I’m going to hypothesize:</p>
<p>Odds of admission overall: 8%
Because my numbers are high: +15%
Because of locality: +2%
Legacy: +5%</p>
<p>Total: 30%</p>
<hr>
<p>I do think it pushed down my odds at other schools, though. Medical schools are notoriously yield-conscious.</p>
<p>^ Ahah, are you indirectly answering my question there? Or is that off the top of your head and you don’t necessarily believe it’s 5.</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>[100% - (100%-10%) ^ 15] = 100% - (90% ^ 15) = 80%</p>
<p>So you’re clearly familiar with the underlying equation. I’m not sure where your objection is.</p>
<p>I mean, I think 5% is as good a guess as any, but I wouldn’t stake my life on it. Could be 0 and I wouldn’t shoot myself; could be 30% and I wouldn’t shoot myself either.</p>
<p>But on its own, 5% would boost an applicant from 8% to 13% (so a 62% increase). 62% improved odds is pretty dramatic.</p>
<p>lol. I am glad I missed all these numbers. I hate numbers. There’s too many of them. ;)</p>
<p>I need a break from cc for awhile. Thanks a million for all the help so far! I’ll be in touch again once my apps verified. But! I’m stickin to my list of 11, and if you really have the guts to tell me that 7 out of every 10 applicants to mizzous school are all around better than me (which is how I interpret “you only have a 30% chance of getting in”) I promise you I’m cocky enough to tell you, flat out, you’re wrong :)</p>
<p>See ya next week ish! -Kristin</p>
<p>
</p>
<p>Well, that’s not what it means at all. If 70% of applicants were clearly better than you, you’d have 0% odds (unless the admissions rate was 71%).</p>
<hr>
<p>In fact, one possible way to get 30% is:</p>
<p>–If we assume that about 11% of applicants are better than you
–And about 50% of applicants are clearly worse than you
–Overall admissions rate is about 24%</p>
<p>That leaves you competing for 13% admissions in a pool of about 39%, or about 33%.</p>
<p>I am finding all this mathematical discussion a bit misleading. It almost sounds that by applying to a random number of schools (based on probabilities and a formula) my chances of getting accepted to med school increase dramatically. Actually, the chances increase if you apply to the right schools for you, based on your individual numbers, overall application and what the school is looking for. If you do not meet that criteria, all the “probabilities” in the world won’t get you accepted. Let’s not lose perspective here.</p>
<p>D. got first interview invite, not the automatic, actual call. Sorry for bragging, she was very excited.</p>
<p>In regard to math calculations, they are as good as the input to the problem. If you state all variables correctly and use correct formulas, results are reliable, if not, then forget it. Just like computer program, garbage in, garbage out, yes, you guessed it correctly, I happen to be a computer programmer who knows all too well the importance of valid input.</p>
<p>Re #591 and 593: </p>
<p>Valid complaints, at least in theory. I think there are plenty of situations where you would say, though, that a candidate has a 0% chance of getting into a school (e.g. candidate’s MCAT score is below average at 24).</p>
<p>I happen to be eyeballing Kristin’s chances at a variety of schools and guessing roughly speaking that she’s usually in the top half of candidates, but typically not among the very uppermost applicants. So I’ve been (roughly) doubling her admissions percentages at most schools. Of course, if Kristin was a horrible applicant, then you’d have to adjust her percentages downward.</p>
<p>MiamiDAP. Congrat. to your D for her invite at such an early date. She must be a strong candidate in the eyes of the adcom of that school.</p>
<p>I thought most invites are notified via email (at least I think this is the case for texas schools.)</p>
<p>BDM, for my son’s case, should he adjust his percentage downward? His stats tend to be above the average for the schools in his list, but his ECs are no way like kristin’s. (He also tends to be on the humble side in writing down his ECs and activities, e.g., he thinks a year of research during his gap year and his year-long experience for his senior research project amount to “next to nothing.”) By reading what eadad and curm said in the 2009-2010 thread, I guess he might have some troubles in getting invites/offer from some of his IS schools (An example eadad or curm mentioned was UT-H.) For his IS schools, maybe UT-SA, UT-SW, Baylor are more “legitimate” schools than other texas schools for him. Do you think so?</p>
<p>mcat2,
Thanks. She got a call, but had to go on-line to confirm and the date was already there. It is on Oct. 13, she will have to skip some classes.<br>
I have no doubt, your S. will get his share of invites.</p>
<p>MiamiD- congrats on the early invite…I think this is about the time many people begin to hear…that first invite is so validating, like Sally Field on the Oscars, “You like me, you really like me”…exciting stuff.</p>
<p>mcat2</p>
<p>I’m not clear about what you are asking BDM.</p>
<p>Please PM me with more details and I’ll make sure you understood what my point about UT-H was.</p>
<p>Hi mcat – Truthfully, I don’t think I’d ever write down an admissions percentage as long as the stats are above average. You might not elevate them as much as you would with good EC’s, but the numbers matter. A lot.</p>
<p>Interesting perspective BDM, but I am actually getting conflicting evidence on this. I know that admissions is typically a numbers game, but the pre-med advising at my school advises students to do a lot of ECs and focus on being honest, dedicated individuals as a strategy to compensate for low GPAs. How much do numbers matter relative to ECs and other factors?</p>
<p>Also, regarding interviews, is it a bad sign if someone who has submitted/been complete later than you hears about an interview earlier? Reading SDN is making me kind of nervous, haha.</p>