Gosh @Cue7 I thought you liked the self selecting 40% rate…
@CU123 the numbers are solid @ 1150-1200 ED/EA/EDII. 350 +/- came from EDII.
How many of these were already included in the EA? I know my son was along with 6-7 others.
I think EDII is included in the admitted students NY reveal though.
Wasn’t the NY reveal in early Feb? That was before EDII
Not when its 40%, and the program is binding, and the RD rate is 2%, and we have all of the literature/data on the pitfalls of early decision!
This was not thought through carefully enough!
(And when can we accuse UChicago of not thinking carefully enough about something?!)
@JBStillFlying your talking about a few numbered overall numbers and I’m afraid I’m rounding/guessing quite a bit. Please feel free to refine my numbers.
@JBStillFlying perhaps, but I was forecasted the number prior based on plan. I believe it was within a week of release.
I feel like I’m giving crack to crackheads…but here it is…and somebody should check the numbers as I spent most of my weekend stuck in airports thanks to Delta…
- numbers that have been reported on this thread ^ numbers that I heard from an admissions officer or at an official event
I am assuming here that 28,000 are applicants (not applications where one applicant can have multiple applications as mention in previous posts). So that can change things quite a bit
Total applicants: 28,000 *
Total EA/ED1 applicants: 13,000 *^
EA/ED1 acceptance rate: 9% *^
RD acceptance rate: 2% *
Overall acceptance rate: 8% *^
Expected incoming class size: 1650 ^ - heard this number at the admitted students event.
From that we can begin to calculate some numbers…
Total students accepted: 2240
Total students accepted EA/ED1: 1170
Total students accepted ED2/RD: 1070
ED2/RD combined accepted rate: 7.13%
Expected Yield: 73.7%
If EA/ED (ED1 and ED2) acceptance rate was in the “teens”, then here are the min/max.
Minimum composite EA/ED acceptance rate: 13.0%
Total RD applicants: 12,727
Total RD students accepted: 255
Total ED2 applicants: 2273
Total ED2 students accepted: 815
Minumum ED2 acceptance rate: 36.4%
% of applicants accepted EA/ED1/ED2: 88.6%
% of applicatns accepted RD: 11.4%
Maximum composite EA/ED acceptance rate: 14.2%
Total RD applicants: 14214
Total RD student accepted: 284
Total ED2 applicants: 786
Total ED2 students accepted 786
Maximum ED2 acceptance rate: 100%
% of applicants accepted EA/ED1/ED2: 82.9%
% of applicants accepted RD: 17.1%
Also, it’s a bit of a stretch, but we can calculate maximum expected EA/RD yield as well…
Maximum composite EA/ED acceptance rate = 14.2%
ED2 students accepted: 786
Minimum ED1 students accepted: 1
Total ED1/ED2 students accepted: 787
Total EA/RD students accepted: 1453
Maximum expected EA/RD yield: 59.4%
Other numbers that I can think of…
Minimum number of incoming class accepted ED (ED1 and ED2): 787
Minimum % of incoming classe accepted ED (ED1 and ED2): 47.7%
Minimum number of early applications (EA/ED1/ED2): 13,786
Maximum number of early applications (EA/ED1/ED2): 15,273
Again, somebody should check my calculations and keep in mind that these are based on unofficial numbers… Take everything with a grain of salt.
FWIW I think they got around 15000 early applicants (EA/ED1/ED2) which caught them by surprise…and the drop in RD applicants also caught them by surprise…which resulted in some wacky ED2 an RD numbers. I don’t think trustees will be happy with a 2% RD number.
@ebachicken1995 your EDII numbers are way off.
Also, what was the total EDII which was already counted in EA or RD and modified to EDII as the SCEA/ED from other schools came out.
I went to the admitted students overnight and reception. N. confirmed that ED2 rate was around 27%…I have no idea how you guys came up with 40%…RD was def 2%, deffer-accept was .5%. Overall rate was 8 percent. SAT average was 1499; ACT mid 50 was 34-36 (they superscore). For Horace Mann and Spence, there is one admission officer who oversees just those two schools alone, so I also don’t know what your talking about when you claim that they are decreasing their HM acceptances.
I read that someone said mentioned 2021 class size was reported as 1650 at the Admitted event.
Can anyone confirm that ?
numbered -> hundred
@fbsdreams Like I said…double check the numbers…and I am sleep deprived…1650 was a number an admissions officer told me at the admitted student event. Can confirm the other numbers that @AshleyMisAwesome reported except for the ED2 number.
So, assuming she’s right…
13,000 applied EA/ED1 x 9% acceptance = 1170 acceptances
28,000 applied overall x 8% acceptance = 2240 acceptances
Which leaves 1070 acceptances for 15,000 ED2/RD (28,000 - 13,000)
If 27% ED2 acceptance rate is correct, then you would need 11920 RD x 2% acceptance = 238 acceptances
Leaving 3080 ED2 x 27% acceptance = 832 acceptances
That gets you to 1070 acceptances (238 +832)
That would mean…16080 applied EA/ED1/ED2 (13000 + 3080) and 2002 were accepted (1170 + 832) = 12.4% acceptance rate… Close enough to “teens” I suppose…or rounding in the other reported numbers. My previous calculations assumed minimum 13% early acceptance rate.
Again, please check the math and the numbers…
That makes great sense. The only wrinkle is that in the latest reception admission dean indicated less than 8 percent total
The 1650 target for enrollment is what I find interesting. Slowly growing the school year over year.
Means that 50% of confirmed slots are from ED/EDII.
Joining the crack party:
Assume 600 admitted EDII at a 27% admit rate ===> 2,200 EDII applications (inclusive of those deferred from ED/EA).
Assume 400 admitted RD at a 2% admit rate ====> 20,000 RD applications (inclusive of those deferred from ED/EA).
We know that 1,200 were admitted EDI/EA out of a pool of 13,000.
We know that 2,200 (approximately) were admitted from a total pool of 28,000
Via subtraction, we know that 15,000 applied EDII/RD (NEW apps. Not deferreds).
Finally we know that approximately 800 were admitted EDI and 400 EA.
Assuming a 30% admit rate for EDI ===> 2,700 EDI applications (800 / .3) =====> 10,300 EA applications (13,000 - 2,700)
EA admit rate, then, is around 4% (400/10,300)
Using the “sanity check” of an “early admit rate” (i.e. EA/EDI/EDII) in the “teens”: (1,200+600) / (13,000 + X) = 13%-19%. X, in case I’ve lost you at this point, represents the number of outside EDII applications (i.e. those NOT deferred from Chicago EDI/EA).
Doing the math, it would appear that 1) X can’t be greater than 900 or less than 0. I could split the dif. but I don’t want to. I’ll keep the max: EDII apps from outside is 900. Therefore, 1,300 came from those UChciago EA/ED applications which were deferred and OPTED for EDII. (2,200 - 900). I repeat: 1,300 at minimum were UChicago deferreds.
We can then subtract from the 15,000 new EDII/RD applications the number 900 (representing new EDII’s) to arrive at 14,100 new RD applications. As there were 20,000 TOTAL in the RD pool, that means that 5,900 of those applications were deferred from EA/EDI (20,000 - 14,100).
To summarize (so far): Total deferreds from EA/ED went as follows: 1,300 to the EDII pool, and 5,900 to RD pool. Total deferreds, then, would be 7,200. In other words, 55% of the early pool was deferred. (7,200 / 13,000). The remainder of early applications were rejected and that number would be 13,000 - 1,200 - 7,200 = 4,600. (35%).
We know that the admit rate of ED/EA Deferreds in the RD round was around .5%. As there were 5,900 of those deferreds, that means that only 30 were admitted RD! (5,900 * .005).
Admit rate for new RD’s: (400 - 30) / (20,000 - 5,900) = 2.6%. Not much better than the overall 2% quoted.
Do they really expect a 73+ percent yield rate? I mean last year they had a 66%. I understand that ED’s will make the yield rate go up, but not that much I would assume.
I think they do, talking with the AO at the admitted students reception she said “they simply ran out of slots for the RD round”. Given that, the yield will increase by a significant amount.
Well, 1650 / 2200 is exactly 75% so they appear to have been targeting something in that area.
Almost half of the class will be at 99% from ED/EDII, I would think that should raise the rate substantially from last year.
@fbsdreams @#178: can’t remember the numbers you posted a few months ago (based on plan you were saying). But I think your ED/EDII numbers are way low:
Not sure if you are referring to 1/2 ADMITTED is ED/EDII or 1/2 ENROLLED is ED/EDII. So working through both scenarios and assuming they admitted approximately 2,200 with an expected enrollment of 1,650:
- One Half ADMITTED means 1,100 ED/EDII (assume a 100% yield on this group for simplicity). The remaining 1,100 would be at a 50% yield (which, btw, seems reasonable):
(1,100 * 100%) + (1,100 * 50%) = 1,100 + 550 = 1,650.
Here’s the problem: 1,100 non-binding admitted means 400 EA and 700 RD. At a 2% RD admit rate, that means the RD pool is 35,000! A bit high, don’t you think?
- One Half ENROLLED is even worse. 825 EDI/EDII means remaining non-binding would be at 60% yield (again, seems reasonable!):
(825 * 100%) + (1,375 * 60%) = 1,650.
1,375 non-binding admits means 975 RD admits so at a 2% admit rate the RD pool is 48,000!
If your ED/EDII numbers are NOT way low, then the RD admit rate that Admissions is sharing is just plain wrong.