<p>Hi Otis--</p>
<p>I'm checking in from home tonight as the days are so full of work that I haven't really had time when I'm in the office. As a result, I don't have access to any of the stats you are asking for. Stats are really not my strength (as you may have guessed). I'm more of the big-picture communications strategy type person so I'll answer things from that angle if it is OK with you. </p>
<p>I honestly don't remember about E2--it was over for me weeks ago. We will end up having admitted more people early (combined ED and E2) than in recent memory. Most of those who aren't admitted are deferred. The first round of ED is usually a stronger overall applicant pool than E2 for some reason and it has been that way since we started having 2 rounds back in the early 90's. That doesn't mean there aren't some very fine individual students in E2--but the overall pool isn't usually spectacular. </p>
<p>Yes, I've been here a very long time and the process and the applicant pool are entirely different from when I began. In the early days I'd have said we had a "competitive" process--if a student met certain criteria as far as grades and scores, they could write just about any essay and still get in. I would compare the difference between a "competitive" process and a "selective" process to the difference between a track meet and a gymnastics meet. A selective process is far less objective and requires evaluation of many more nuances and that's where we have arrived gradually over the years. When I first started (likely before you were born and I HATE to admit that) I remember taking a folder to the Dean. He met all the numerical criteria but his writing was just plain bad and he struck me as a real jerk (that is pretty rare--most students aren't jerks even if they aren't good writers, but I was quite young then, so that kind of thing had more resonance for me--I could just see that kid at UR and know I wouldn't want to go to class with him). I asked why I had to read all the essays if it didn't matter what they said or how poorly they were done. His answer was that if we kept telling people that they mattered that some day we'd be in a position that they actually would. I had to take that on faith, but the truth is that he was right. I can't say exactly when the moment occurred that the subjective stuff began to matter, but it has been a good 10 years I guess (maybe a few more), and I like my job much better now! Once a student has cleared the appropriate hurdles academically, then we can really make a decision much more based on the other stuff and it makes it fun to read apps and get to know you guys even if we never actually meet you. I scare a lot of students when I meet them when I tell them I remember reading their application--which I do more often than you might expect--and it freaks them out. I don't think most students really get that there are a bunch of people holed up for all these months reading this stuff and advocating on their behalf, really rooting for them and hoping they'll come to UR. One of the things I don't think I will like about this confidential environment is not knowing who I'm talking to most of time. This business used to be more about relationships than competition. You all will probably disappear into some college (UR or another) next year and I'll never know where you landed and that will be sad. I hope when you make your decisions you'll let me know who you were and where you are going. </p>
<p>Determining whom to admit any year and trying to predict the yield is really quite an interesting enterprise. There are pretty sophisticated models that many schools use to try to get it right. Students with certain demographic characteristics yield at different rates, different academic profiles yield differently. There are a million variables (probably a slight exaggeration there). You have to predict things you can't control and hope for the best! We tend to aim for just the class size we want and then work our way up if we've under enrolled and I think most places would share that philosophy. Certainly any place that is residential and tries to house its first year students on campus, and who cares a LOT who is going to teach the first year courses has to be very careful about that. Places where the residential element isn't in play, and who don't mind hiring a bunch of adjuncts to teach freshman English (and other intro level stuff) when there are way too many students have an easier time. You have to anticipate withdrawals in the event that one of your key competitors goes to its wait lists and your students start jumping ship to go there. Last year many fewer of our students withdrew than in past years which was great in some ways (certainly it seems to mean we're more popular--we know that some of our big competitors hit their wait lists hard, but we lost very few students) but we ended up with a bigger class than was ideal. All summer our dean was walking around thinking that all our students had double-deposited (a BIG ethical no-no to readers out there) and would let us down in the end by going to the other school. But there are a number of benchmarks through the summer that kept getting met--students activated their UR email addresses, they sent back various forms, they joined Facebook groups (not that we're stalking them), they came to alumni events in their hometowns, and best of all they paid their tuition bills. So if a bunch of our freshmen had double-deposited, we somehow won them in the end. We had way under-estimated our withdrawals and that will mean we reduce our expectations a bit this year. But again, with the bigger pool, that will change all the equations, who we're competiting with out there and etc. There are no two years that are exactly alike, and I guess that's part of how I can stand to have stayed and done it all these years--it is never boring even when it is frustrating and stressful. </p>
<p>So all this is to say that there are so many factors in play, that all this "chancing" that I see on this site makes me very nervous. So much factors into each decision that is not really about the individual applicant and often we don't know which way things are going to go until the moment they start to go there! </p>
<p>And does knowing about this help you worry less? I really hope so but don't necessarily believe it will. Maybe you won't take decisions that aren't in your favor with a little less hurt--that would be my hope anyway. It matters a lot more that you all go to college with the attitude of making the most of what is there rather than which college it is. And all the information that flies around on this site splits institutions down into such tiny detail that in the grand scheme its over evaluated if you ask me. I can't imagine asking about most of the stuff that students today are asking. I think it is great to be educated consumers--I really do, but it would be OK to kick back a bit and not worry quite so much about some of the minutiae I see discussed on these boards. </p>
<p>You caught me going philosophical! Yikes. Clearly I'm not getting enough social interaction at work, locked into my office behind my desk. </p>
<p>I'm going to read an interesting book and then to bed! And you should too!</p>
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