A New Study on campus rape and the one in five number

Sic semper erat, et sic semper erit.

Probably true. Probably true :slight_smile:

No, she did not. There is a very important distiction. She said “no” the first time and the second time “didn’t say no”. That is quite different from saying yes. Under “yes means yes” she was raped.

No. She wasn’t.

@dstark I assume you were answering my post. How can you possibly say that? In the numerous “yes means yes” localities/schools she was certainly raped. And considering that many people want to go to a “yes means yes” society (which I generally agree with) I find it a perfect example. Fact: she did not say “yes”. Fact: not getting a “yes” is not the same as “not getting a no” and means rape in certain jurisdictions.

There was no yes means yes at the time of Cathy Young’s story. If there was, Cathy Young may have just said yes. Maybe she did say yes.

I wrote earlier of a friend who lived in a frat 40 years ago. They used to carry drunk girls into their bedrooms and have their way with them. Nobody thought it was rape then. Norms change. Now times are different.

One problem with the DOJ numbers is only rapes by force are counted. Nowadays…having sex with somebody who is unable to consent is now considered rape or whatever legal terms are used in a particular state. Maybe, there are a few jurisdictions where this isn’t true.

As Data10 has mentioned, people respond to questions differently. The DOJ surveys have questions that are too broad. You get very different answers when the questions are more specific.

Have you been raped? Many people don’t like to respond yes to that question. There are negative feelings and thoughts with that answer. If you ask the same people have you ever had somebody shove their … up your anus without consent, we get a lot more yes answers. Human psychology…whatever…

There is going to be a DOJ survey that comes out in the near future. It is going to include sex without consent and the questions are going to be more specific. It’s a no brainer the results of the survey are going to show more rapes.

In the Tulane-Loyola survey, the amount of women who were sexual assaulted or had attempted assaults against them was 18 percent.

Do I think all schools have similar results?

No. I don’t.

Doesn’t matter.

I used a 7 percent number in a different example. 7 percent is more than high enough.

Jonri, I liked your post 712.

I like a lot of posts.

Except that, as far as I can tell, from her narrative you can’t tell if she didn’t say yes the second time.

This is one of the problems I have with her attempted proof by anecdote—the anecdotes are missing crucial details necessary for being able to tell whether they’re actually usable datapoints.

[quote]
Nobody thought it was rape then. Norms change. Now times are different./quote

And this is really where the problem lies, no? Norms constantly change—but when norms change in ways that upset the existing power structure, there’s often a backlash, or at least an impassioned (and often irrational, from all sides) debate.

Absolutely! :slight_smile:

I don’t know about the all sides comment. :wink:

@dfbdfb I am only basing that on her wording. She didn’t say something like “I finally gave in and said yes”, she specifically says “the 2nd time I didn’t tell him no”. I suppose she could have meant that she gave in and said yes, but I would think a writer who knows the distinction between the two phrases would be careful with her wording.

Precisely—except that that claim can cut both ways. :slight_smile:

“In the Tulane-Loyola survey, the amount of women who were sexual assaulted or had attempted assaults against them was 18 percent. Do I think all schools have similar results? No. I don’t.”

Stark – you got a copy of that report? I can’t find one.

But the author says that of the 18% number he cites, only 20% actually reported they’d been raped. 80% of the incidents were things that he believes “would have met the definition of rape under applicable law.” What exactly does that mean?

So the 18% actually appears to 3.6% instead. That’s the actual number of rapes coming from the survey responders. Presumably thats data from students in all 4 classes, so you need to divide by 2-4 . So you are now talking something more like 1-2% per year.

That’s a high number, but nothing as compared to good old Syracuse. 12.3% of freshman female students raped each year!!!

So I’m comfortable with my kid being at Tulane. But also would be comfortable with my kid at Syracuse. Because this junk data is, in fact, junk.

Dfbdfb…maybe…but one way is travelled a lot more. :wink:

Cathy Young knew what she was writing. :slight_smile:

@dstark So you think she was lying? Is that what you are implying?

Yes. I think she is a bs artist.

I don’t usually buy bs. I bought the RS writer’s bs. Shouldn’t have done that. I am not buying Cathy Young’s bs.

You go right ahead.

I was thinking about this on my way home and this talk of shifting norms is the perfect segue. Where I live norms have changed dramatically around both recycling and impaired driving.

I’ll start with the impaired driving because like rape it is a crime and like rape people see gradations of severity and gradations of “badness” of perpetrators. There will likely always be chronic, unreformed alcoholics who are serial impaired drivers. These people rack up citations and often cause horrible damage, injury and loss of life. They would be the equivalent of the true sociopathic predators. There are also tipsy driver, post game drivers, it’s only around the block drivers, I just had one glass drivers etc., etc. There are also people who have not yet started driving or are new drivers. Those second two groups are your target audience for change. There are the basic messages of “don’t drink and drive” and “friends don’t let friends drive drunk”. There is the concept of the designated driver who is just having Pellegrino with lemon and can even flaunt it. There are key collection baskets at front doors, there is Uber which in my work circle is the single best response to tipsy driving. Budweiser tells people to “please drink responsibly”. None of my younger co-workers drive on weekends or to football games anymore. Young people get their parents on board now. I hear more retired people taking about using Uber to go out so they can both have a glass of wine. That is a culture shift that has happened where I live. It doesn’t have to be one thing or narrowed down one class of people who messages are trying to reach.

We have a similar sea change with recycling. The young are straight up indoctrinated to never throw anything away that could possibly be recycled, repurposed or composed. Recycling monitor is one of the coveted classroom jobs in elementary school. Of course there are the true believer “tree hugger” recyclers but there are many other motivations to do it. Straight up shame works. Indoctrination works. Where I live punishment in the form of higher garbage rates works for people who aren’t motivated by the cause but will change if you hit them where it hurts. Half way messages like “Reduce-Reuse-Recycle” work because they say that you don’t have to be a zealot to do your part. With rape my equivalent would be using bystander training and other similar messages to soften the groups. Other than the sociopathic predators, there is a continuum of guys in the middle ground who don’t think of themselves as rapists but may engage in questionable activity in the wrong setting or may not step in and prevent a situation that they see. I have seen shifting the norm work in other settings and I believe that it can work in this one.

The bugaboo is actually talking about it. Budweiser says, “Please drink responsibly.” meaning don’t get behind the wheel but they still rolled out an ad with “the perfect beer for removing no from your vocabulary” and “up for whatever”. In other words, when you’re partying with all the half-naked girls and the dog be sure to hire a limo. So many young people don’t have comprehensive sex education. How can you talk about smart sexual choices and boundaries if your message is abstinence only? That applies to males and females. I don’t think you have to know the exact numbers of rapes, attempts and assaults on or off campus to start messaging on multiple fronts. Broad messaging will help to change the culture at large which is good for everyone. I also think that the messaging needs to be more mainstream. I see the anti-domestic violence ads on TV and most of them still seem very removed from what I would identify with. Many people have said that despite the stats they feel comfortable with their son or daughter in the campus setting because their child doesn’t fit the profile or engage in those types of risky behaviors. People need to see it as something that DOES pertain to them. I don’t think my kid would rape someone when he goes off to school next year but he will live in a dorm with a roommate in a large group of other students in a city and who know what he will encounter even if he is the golden boy that his mother wants to believes that he is (fingers crossed, knock on wood). I think that the stronger messaging is going to apply to everyone and not be just “don’t drink or go to frat parties and you won’t get raped”

@dstark So essentially what you are saying is that if you don’t agree with something you call bs and don’t believe it. You don’t think that incidents like she described happen? You don’t think they happen hundreds of times per day?

@Saintfan I agree with everything you wrote in #735

The wording was

“Dr. Marcus Kondkar, an associate professor in sociology at Loyola University of New Orleans, conducted anonymous studies of 500 students each at Tulane and Loyola. Eighteen percent of respondents reported incidents that could be legally defined as rape. Of those, less than four percent reported it.”

Only a small portion of victims officially report the incident. This is not surprising. All the other studies/surveys that looked at percentage reporting also found only a small portion reported the incident outside of the survey.

If you want to estimate the actual events that occurred rather than the minority that were officially reported, the number is 18%. Most surveys are done with mixed years, not with 4th year seniors; so if this is the case (haven’t seen survey results), you wouldn’t divide by 2-4. Instead the mean age is probably sophomore or junior. I’d expect the rate of students experiencing the first rape is notably higher during freshman year than the end of freshman to the mean age of the survey, so evet dividing by 2 is likely too much.

The “Syracuse” study did not find 12.3%. Instead it found during the first academic year 5.2% were forced and 7.1% were incapacitated. This does not mean the total rate is 5.2%+7.1%=12.3% since some unfortunate women had both forced and incapacitated incidents, so they are getting counted twice. If I assume the same rate of multiple incidents for both forced and incapacitated as attempted + completed, then that changes the estimate of reported rate of either forced or incapacitate rate during freshman academic year to 9.7%. So it’s not looking that different from the Tulane numbers.

TV4caster :slight_smile: I don’t believe in bs when it is bs. :wink:

You can think whatever you want.

http://www.loyolamaroon.com/10003177/news/professors-sexual-assault-study-shows-low-rates-of-reporting/

Data10, I think northwesty is referencing 20 percent of the 18 percent think they were raped…so therefore the rest of the 18 percent weren’t raped even if interviewers thought what the respondents said were rapes.