<p>If you look at the acceptance statistics for top schools, it appears that they take in about 40 to 50% of the kids with near perfect stats. So your friend can safely assume that she has about 40%chance getting into each of the reach schools. (This is better than the 33% you assumed for each school.)
Now if she applies to 6 schools by your formula she has 95% chance of geting into one of the reaches. But that is not true: you can't apply your formula the way you did BECAUSE one of the possibilities is that NONE of the reach schools admits her.**<br>
That is why the experienced people on this board have stressed that one should have safeties. There are no guarantees.</p>
<p>actually i don't see anything wrong with this guy's idea. the only stupid thing would be NOT applying to any safeties. so what if it's mathematically incorrect. so what if the exact number, 91, isn't perfectly right. who cares! people do what they want. i hope this guy gets into at least one of those schools.</p>
<p>its more like 40-50% actually, it's that wrong (provided original percentage of one is 33%). college admissions are not independent events at that level, if one of those schools didn't like you, there is a decent chance that the others are going to have the same conclusion.</p>
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If you look at the acceptance statistics for top schools, it appears that they take in about 40 to 50% of the kids with near perfect stats.
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<p>Nice, where can I find statistics like these?</p>
<p>And guys, I know that college applications depend on many factors, and applications to different colleges share many of the same factors. My argument is that they can be seen as random/independent at a certain level, i.e. the perfect 2400, 4.0, glowing teacher rec's, etc. (or close to it) applicant who has maximized his application can still only depend on chance. I think a lot of this process has to do with luck. One of my teachers is friends with an adcom at harvard, and he said that harvard receives so many qualified applicants that they could throw out the entire pile of accepted applications and still have just as qualified of a freshman class. Applying to more than one of these schools would get the chances, or statistics, to work for you instead of against you.</p>
<p>And yes, he is applying for the prestige. No other factor would motivate someone to apply to the 6 most prestigious schools. But at least he's honest about it.</p>
<p>yeah when you have a 2380 and about eight 5's you're pretty much set at those schools though</p>
<p>C should always stand for Caltech; Columbia would be out of place but only slightly. Cornell, Colgate and Cooper Union are just laughable.</p>
<p>And the reasoning isn't perfect but it makes sense because chances are colleges won't have a reason to reject this applicant, they just don't know if they can make the room to accept him. So in a way, they are indepenent events.</p>
<p>I guess its plausible...assuming he doesn't mess up the same thing with each application, i.e. write a poor essay that he submits to all of the colleges or choke on every single interview. And I don't know if anyone has mentioned it yet on this thread, but every other thread like this has someone giving a thrashing to a person arrogantly applying to all the ivies/top schools, even though they are very different and yadda...yadda...yadda...</p>
<p>wait...maybe C should stand for Chicago :)</p>
<p>I can't believe I missed that one.</p>
<p>nameless1: i usually try to give out the thrashing when i'm bored...but if this guy has that great of stats, i'd say knock yourself out. at least he's done enough research in the sense that he's a bad*** applicant. I don't like it when people just randomly start looking up schools with mediocre stats and think that they should apply to all the ivies and that they'll get in one. </p>
<p>that was me...and then i grew out of that stage very quickly. Luckily long before the actual applications come out.</p>
<p>is being a prestige-hor a bad thing?</p>
<p>the statistics are simple. if you get it you have a 100% chance of being accepted. if you dont get in you have a 0% chance of being accepted. even though your friend has all the best scores, he has no guarantee at getting into any of these schools this year. he may get into all of htem if he applies fall 2007. its too random to apply a number % to but he has the right idea to just apply. the only problem is that he needs to want to go to these schools for more reasons than prestige. it actually seems out of place to me to be targeting the two best engineering schools and yale. if he wants to do engineering he should apply to a place like cmu instead. if, however, he doesnt want to do science, why is he looking at mit and cal tech? if he is undecided (like most people) he shouldnt be looking at two engineering schools, but instead HYPS and other ivys that are more broad based (i know mit and caltech are good at everything, but who goes to them to be a non science major). you should never want to go to a school for the brand name. the worst thing your friend could do would be to get into a school he doesnt really want to go to and take the spot of a student who does. the name of your undergrad school means nothing in the long run. a student who enters community college may become more successful than a student entering harvard for an infinite amount of reasons. your friend should think about what he is doing before he applies because the name of the school or its rank is the wrong reason to want to go. hes also going to need safeties and matches, so that may push the number of schools he applies to to more than 10. even if he does the common app (which is used by HYP, caltech, and all ivys but brown) he is still looking at alot of work. a kid at my schoool last year did a similar thing and got in almost everywhere, so its possible, but why would you want to? its a waste of time and money applying to places you dont intend on attending. you would never tell someone "i got in here here here and here" you just say where you went/ are going. your friend should visit these schools and things of that nature so he knows whether or not he wants to go. frankly your friend should chose one place he really wants to go and apply there early. if he gets in, he's done. if he doesnt he should apply to places he genuenly wants to go and not places that will look good on a resume.</p>
<p>also, is it possible for a college to tell you genuenly want to go there versus knowing your applying for the hell of it? (like this guy's friend)
i know places like washu can tell that your using it as a safety and will not admit you to lower the acceptance rate and boost the ranking.</p>
<p>Needs to read the post from the mother whose perfect son was rejected by all Ivys and didn't have a back up.</p>
<p>I think being a prestige-whore just says something about your character, what exactly, you be the judge. Though, I'll say that I applied to eight reaches myself [though four were what my family wanted from me, and I even tried to sabotage some of my apps so I wouldn't have to deal with them]</p>
<p>Percentages are jacked up. </p>
<p>Because they can't be verified--either you get into a school, get waitlisted, get deferred, or get rejected. Such results make actual probability nearly impossible.</p>
<p>whoa whoa whoa</p>
<p>first of all, where in my post did i say he wasn't applying to a safety school? he's applying to a local state u just for backup, chillax, nothing to worry about there</p>
<p>second of all, lots of you guys who criticize him for being a "prestige-whore" are motivated by the same thing, just my friend is more open about it. there's nothing wrong with reaching for the stars</p>
<p>also, those 6 prestigious schools are all prestigious for a reason: they're effing good. now really, if this is the kind of kid who has a real shot at schools like that, do you really think he wouldn't spend any time researching the colleges? i think he wants to do something in math/science/engineering, 'cause those are his strong points, but he doesn't have to decide now, and nor does anyone. regardless, all of those schools have great programs in a variety of subjects. there's no reason to bite anyone's head off....</p>
<p>not independent events, it doesnt work like that</p>
<p>i see no reason why being a prestige who re is soo bad.... i would go to any of the top 5 or even 10 schools just to be around such an amzing student population... for me the teachers and students make the school what it is.... i have no problem with someone trying to get into harvard or yale or all of em.....</p>
<p>I think many of us CC'ers get too mad when alotta these new waves of applicants come in trying to basically do the same thing we did....</p>
<p>Both arguments make alotta sense.... you want to find your best fit...</p>
<p>Yea, also I know that one of the reasons I had to be a prestige-whore was because I had to live with apply now visit later, so I based my choices heavily on academics and then environment was a secondary result. Though some I have to admit I never really cared for and even tried to ruin my chances at those schools.</p>
<p>i wrote what i did because i find it hard to believe that someone would want to go to all 6 of those schools. there have to be some reasons/intangibles that would make you not want to go somewhere or fall in love with a school. i dont discourage him from applying to these 6 schools, and more power to him if he gets in everywhere. the fact is, the list of schools make him look like a prestige whore. if he wants to be on the west coast, he should also look at UCB, Harvey Mudd, etc. if he wants to be on the east coast, other schools are Duke, the other ivys, etc. if money is an issue, he could look at places that give merit scholarships. but because he is applying to (arguably) the best 6 schools in the country, it says less about what he wants to major in, and more about the fact that he may want the name brand. </p>
<p>his strategy may work out and he may get into one, two, or all of these schools (i would guess 2 or 3) but there is also a fair chance he will not be admitted anywhere, but that is what everyone faces with their reach schools.</p>
<p>Problem... college admissions, despite what we like to think, is NOT random, and admissions at peer institutions like HYP certainly have correlation... it would be crazy to assume that they have no correlation, and so the events are NOT independent. That's where the argument breaks down.</p>