<p>God I feel like I need to just beat the crap out of Barbaro, well, not yet. </p>
<p>Do you people understand?</p>
<p>He is increasing his chances of getting in, but not to 91%, or anywhere close to 91%. As many people have said, college admissions are not independent events. Also, there are other factors to consider, such as essays, interviews, recs, etc....</p>
<p>Also, I don't think any person can say "I have a 33% chance of getting into school X" or "I have a 78% chance of getting into school Y." I suspect this guy has looked at the SAT score and GPA acceptance ranges, but there are other factors that need to be considered. There's just too much uncertainty in the whole process.</p>
<p>Right, like everybody said, there is no way to put a percentage chance on the likelihood of getting into any of these schools. There are just too many subjective factors involved. Schools like HYP also share a lot of the same criteria, and are all trying to "sculpt" their classes. Chances are, if the candidate doesn't measure up for two of these schools, he won't measure up for the third either.</p>
<p>I think applying to alot of schools in your range is a very smart idea. Out of high school I was rejected at all of the super reaches (HYP); accepted at 1/3 of my reaches (Brown (waitlisted), Duke, Columbia (accepted)) and got into 100% of the semi-reaches (Nortwestern, etc). If I had the chance to do it over I would have added many more to the reach category (Amherst, Dartmouth, Penn), therefore giving myself more choices in the long run.</p>
<p>Personally I think its hard to know exactly how good a "fit" a school is unless you attend the "days on campus" weekends.</p>
<p>Translation: You are beating a dead horse.</p>
<p>wait, i'm confused...
does applying to many schools increase your chances, or is there too much uncertainty in the admissions process to tell?</p>
<p>i don't think we've discussed this enough yet</p>
<p>"does applying to many schools increase your chances, or is there too much uncertainty in the admissions process to tell?"</p>
<p>If your friend produces excellent applications for all the schools to which he applies, and all the schools are a very good fit, then more is likely better. 8 wonderful applications are better than 4 wonderful applications. 8 mediocre ones (with lame 'why x university' essays) are not.</p>
<p>When doing a statisical estimate, though, remember to look at RD admissions rates - these are usually even more appallingly low than the overall rate.</p>
<p>So basically he's going to apply to a few completely different schools hoping he'll get into one, he doesn't care which one, as long as it's one of them?</p>
<p>I think the notion of "4 quality applications vs. 12 mediocre ones" is way off. The effort scales; 15 good applications isn't much more work than 7 good applications. And applying to a ton of schools at the realistic reach level is MUCH more important than alot of safeties. I think of this as a "safety net," I know WAY too many people who had 5 safeties but didn't get into their reaches and matches, and ended up at a safety or match when with a smarter strategy they'd probably be at a much better school.</p>
<p>Slipper,</p>
<p>"The effort scales"</p>
<p>If you are using the common app, this is certainly true. What I can tell you is that the majority of the 'why x university' essays I have looked at haven't been so hot (at least to start with). This may not matter much if you have an athletic hook, or your parents are very well-to-do, or your GC has an 'in' with the college. If you are an unhooked applicant, it probably will matter - a lot - at the elite levels.</p>
<p>of course applying to more schools gives you better chances - granted if you're qualified. If you have a 1500 SAT and are in teh top 5% of your class, your chances of getting picked up by 1 out of 10 really hard schools is better than trying to get picked up at 1 out of 2 really hard schools. This is because top schools have a surplus of qualified applicants - and therefore hopefully you'll get picked up by 1.</p>
<p>Unfortunately though you're logic is incorrect. regardless of what everyone would like to say college admissions is not a random event - at least not in the context of statistics. Just because Yale accepts 10% of its student body doesn't mean that the admissions committee randomly picks 1 out of every 10 applicants. Also, college admissions are mutually exclusive (although that doesn't technically apply here because college admissions arn't random). If you take lets say you take the 5 schools with admissions rates at or around 20%. Because you were rejected from one doesn't mean your % chance of getting accepted goes up.</p>
<p>in other words - because this is not a random test you can't simply make up a % acceptance rate for yourself, and then multiply it out by how many schools you're going to.</p>
<p>Well, I can tell you by the numbers that for the class of 2010 at Brown, those that scored higher than 700 on verbal had a 21.1% admit rate and those that scored higher than 700 on math had a 20.25% admit rate [>750 V: 25.5%, >750 M: 24.6%] so I definitely don't think that we could independently go much higher than these numbers for your friend's odds.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Just because Yale accepts 10% of its student body doesn't mean that the admissions committee randomly picks 1 out of every 10 applicants.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Yeah, but their selection between TOP applicants can arguably be seen as random. Look at the HYSMC decision threads where many 4.0 2400 800 SAT2s, etc. get rejected and then tell me that chance has nothing to do with it.</p>
<p>
[quote]
Also, college admissions are mutually exclusive... Because you were rejected from one doesn't mean your % chance of getting accepted goes up.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Coin flips are mutually exclusive. If i flip 6 coins, the odds of getting at least one heads would be 1 - (1/2)^6. This is the same methodology used for the college acceptances.</p>
<p>I never claimed that getting rejected from one college improved your chances of getting accepted to another one.</p>
<p>
[quote]
I definitely don't think that we could independently go much higher than these numbers for your friend's odds.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>First of all, someone who scored 750 verbal didn't necessarily score well on the math also. So the 25.5% includes people who scored anywhere from 750/800 to 750/550, etc. </p>
<p>Second of all, 750/750 isn't even at the 75th percentile for Brown, so I doubt a flat-out 1500/2250 could be used as an advantage for admissions here. I'm talking about the numbers for 2350-2400</p>
<p>to point 1 -</p>
<p>its only random in the fact that top schools get more qualified applications then they have room for. It could very well be that by the time an adcom got around to your application the class was full. Unfortunately there is no way to quantify that overbooking or surplus amount of qualified applications. Therefore its impossible to make numerical judgments about the randomness of the situation.</p>
<p>to your 2nd point i just misunderstood what you initially said.</p>
<p>"Yeah, but their selection between TOP applicants can arguably be seen as random."</p>
<p>From the outside, it is a black box (to a certain extent), and it does appear random. From the inside, colleges are persuing their own institutional aims, and it is much less problematic. The problem is, from year to year, we don't know (from the outside) what exactly the gearing is on the inside. There are also the factors of gc rec that we don't know, and teacher rec's (that we might know if the teachers provide the student with a copy of the letter but this is rare). </p>
<p>I also do a very rough estimate of the possibility of being rejected everywhere, but would hesitate to inflate the chances of acceptance above those published for RD (and taking the sex of the applicant into consideration). Your friend's chances may be better. But thet point is to come up with a safe application strategy that will likely provide at least a couple of valid options come April.</p>
<p>Ahahaha, this thread shouldn't get so many replies. I think you should all just ignore tripNip at this point, if he/she still doesn't get it.</p>
<p>Thanks for the laugh though trip.</p>
<p>So basically, your point is that if you apply to more schools, your chances of getting into at least one goes up.</p>
<p>Thanks for the tip, John Madden.</p>
<p>My friend got into Columbia, and he is probably one of the laziest sweethearts I know.</p>
<p>I tell you, no one knows what fate has in store for them</p>
<p>^I think so.</p>
<p>Actually, this student's probability calculations are not flawed, but correct. Yes, the more reaches you apply to you are EVENTUALLY gonna get into one. That's how it is mathematically.</p>