Roycroft, I think your point is well taken. None of us know.
BUT- I’ve been in corporate America since the late 70’s. I graduated from college into a recession, and lived through 1987, early 90’'s tech/aerospace bust, several boom/bust years for the petroleum industry, early 2001 recession and then 9/11, and of course, 2008. Professions wax and wane.
I do not have a crystal ball, but as someone who hires for a living, I have observed that at least for the recessions noted above:
1- Generalists seem to fare better than specialists. You can major in petroleum engineering when every company on the planet is hiring and escalating salaries… lucky you. And then you can graduate into one of the frequent dips where everyone is laying off experienced engineers. You can major in mechanical engineering and get hired at an oil and gas company, but it is MUCH harder to major in petroleum engineering and get hired at a consumer products company, or a medical device company, etc. even though so many of the skills are fungible. Ditto for aero/astro. I was already in recruiting in the early 90’s when highly skilled engineers were being laid off from the airlines, manufacturers, aftermarket companies-- and not by the dozens, by the thousands. My company had PhD’s in Aero applying for entry level data analyst jobs (which required algebra, in a test we gave applicants).
2- Newish degrees (this point is related to the above) don’t fare well during a recession. Don’t major in real estate management/development if your college offers a solid finance degree-- most of the courses overlap, and every hiring manager in the US knows what a person with a finance degree can do, and significantly fewer know what a real estate management person does especially if the job is not in real estate development. I knew hundreds of young grads in the early 200’s with degrees in e-commerce (too bad e-commerce blew up as a discipline) and it was really, really sad. Better to major in CS-- again, everyone knows what that is, and take a couple of psychology and design courses.
3- Very narrow degrees are not your friend unless it’s for a licensed profession. Yes, you have to pass the boards to become a nurse, so majoring in nursing is the way to go because that’s how you prepare for to be licensed. But majoring in “pre-law”? No, you still need law school in 49 out of 50 states. Travel and tourism? No, because when the tourism industry dries up (like now) what’s plan B? Recreation Management?Athletic Training? Many of these degree-holders end up in jobs which do not require a college degree at all (most of the young people working at my gym have these degrees, alongside high school graduates and kids with a GED. And they are all making minimum wage, part-time with no benefits except for a “free” gym membership.)
4- Make sure you at least like/love what you are studying because it’s the only BA you are going to get. STEM is an obsession right now- but who remembers when PhD’s in Math were driving taxis? And who knows young people with bio majors who work cleaning cages at a lab (just over minimum wage and no free gym) because nobody told them that a BA or BS in bio does not qualify you to do high end genetic research on Covid ? If you’ve gritted your teeth for four years to get that STEM degree (or finance degree, or whatever) and the intended career doesn’t work out, are you going to feel doubly cheated (hated college AND hate the only job you can get?)
No crystal ball. But grinding through a degree in the hopes that it makes you “marketable” if you don’t love where you might end up— think twice.