For me, this is the most reassuring piece of research to come out in a long time:
One-year Risks and Burdens of Incident Cardiovascular Disease in COVID-19: Cardiovascular Manifestations of Long COVID | Research Square (h/t Eric Topol)
âŠbut it should be hella scary for a lot of other people. This is a massive long-term study of Covid patients at a VA hospital, some of whom where hospitalized, some not, some in the ICU, against very large control sets. Looks at effects one year on.
The immediate news, when you look at the data presented here, is that mild (nonhospitalized) covid = increased risk of all sorts of longterm cardiovascular ailments, but (to my mind) not increased alarmingly â in the range of 25-30% for a lot of them â unless youâre looking at thrombosis or myocarditis. But the actual risk of all those problems remains quite low unless youâre somehow predisposed. So hooray for vaccines. The numbers for those who wind up in the ICU and survive, however, are terrifying. What this study says to me is that if you wind up in the ICU and get out, you should expect to be fragile and sick for a long time, hope you have some devoted people looking after you, and have your affairs in order anyway.
Thatâs the first picture to show up. However, if you read through to the supplemental data, youâll see the patient characteristics, and thatâs also good news for me, very scary news for a whole bunch of other people.
Imagine a VA hospital. Imagine whoâs there. Thatâs whoâs in the study. They are:
-nearly all men
-mostly white
-nearly all overweight or obese
-half smoke or used to
-a third are diabetic
-their blood pressureâs not great
-a good chunk of them have kidney disease
-theyâve got a mean age of 61
-theyâre not severely disadvantaged in life, but you wouldnât call them privileged people
If this is what the mild cases look like there, Iâm much less worried about longterm effects of picking up a delta case by going back into work at my Death Star state university after Iâve had my booster. Iâm a bit younger than these guys, infinitely healthier, vaxed, no plans to fly or do a lot of sitting still in the foreseeable future, no one vulnerable at home to pass it on to. I wonder about migraine and cerebrovascular events, but iirc migraineâs a problem in the other direction, vasodilation. I can imagine feeling less than 100% for a good while afterwards, but disability looks pretty remote. However, that portrait of the study participants looks like a whole lot of people in this country, and makes the kidsâ first name for the disease â boomer remover â sound pretty accurate.
Interestingly, the three groups â mild, hospitalized, ICU â look very similar. The sicker groups are marginally in worse shape starting out, and marginally less white, marginally more male. But itâs very much all one cohort, given the variables theyâre looking at.
The main thing Iâm left wondering about is viral load in mild delta (vaxed) vs. mild wt (unvaxed), which is what these VA guys wouldâve had. We know the delta/vax spike is fast and high and drops off again fast, usually, as the antibodies show up, but I donât know what that looks like next to wt viral load graphs. And I donât know how important the height of that initial peak is, as opposed to âhow long and severe is the acute phase of the illnessâ,when it comes to longterm effects. I guess we wonât know about that second one for a long time.