Some European countries require proof of booster for entry
Iāll dig up the study I have in mind when I get a chance. Canāt remember in vitro or vivo, unfortunately, and if vivo what n was ā the vividness of the figures knocked the rest out of my mind, which doesnāt happen too often. All of the vaccines were flirting with the breakthrough line, but no-vax/natural immunity fared substantially worse than the vax.
Israel considers a case to be serious if it requires hospitalization - and since they only admit people who have a significant O2 requirement, and a decent chance of needing to go on the vent, that means REALLY serious. So, their recent data shows that of 100,000 persons who have received the third dose, 2.9 cases of serious illness. Of 100,000 who have received the original 2 dose Pfizer series (and remember, Israel was about 2 months ahead of us in the start of their vaccination campaign, and probably 3 months ahead of us in immunizing healthy adults and 12 and up), about 30 cases of serious illness (breakthrough). And of 100,000 unvaccinated, about 170 cases of serious illness.
Thatās pretty compelling. And remember, since they only consider āseriousā to be those admitted to the hospital, and they only admit those who really need to be in the hospital, since itās a country with a strong socialized healthcare system), that means that many, many more people were miserably sick at home, and may be having long-Covid symptoms to this day. Why anyone would listen to those idiot talking heads who claim that the best immunity is acquired by contracting Covid (that is, if you survive it, with or without serious sequelae), is a total mystery to me.
But if you like anecdotal evidence, people are dying of breakthrough cases, and unimmunized children under 12 are dying, Anecdotes always seem to motivate people more than data.
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They can because some people would rather risk the booster than risk Covid. They can because they can self-attest to the need for a booster, and get Moderna if they had Moderna before. They can because some people, knowing that their chances of breakthrough Covid are greatly reduced by getting a third dose, are going into pharmacies and LYING, saying that they have no insurance, and have never received the vaccine, and request Moderna, implying that it is their first dose. Maybe they have to cross a state line to do it - but somehow, it seems worth it to them, to travel, and lie, just to reduce their chances of getting Covid, and perhaps of bringing it to their loved ones, or patients, or customers, or clients. Such selfish peopleā¦
Uh, no. The flu shot is changed EVERY year. It maybe the same volume but the contents are different. And as you suggest, the Tdap for adults is different than that of kids, i.e., it is a booster.
There have been years when the flu vaccine had the same strains as the previous year. There have also been years when only one of three or four strains was changed.
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@parentologist I think Iām not being clear enough in my posts. My DH is an infectious disease doc and immunologist who has literally seen thousands of Covid patients in the past 19 months. He was one of the first doctors to listen to people with Long Covid, and is now treating many.
I would never suggest that someone get Covid rather than getting vaccinated. The Covid vaccine is a modern miracle, and I know this from many published studies on vaccine effectiveness. Iām not sure why you accused me of liking anecdotal evidenceā¦
As for my comment about the definition of severe disease, I made it in reference to the question of whether and when to get a third dose. There is no question that everyone should get the first two.
It is also true that we lack a universal definition of severe disease, although it is an endpoint in research studies. Dr. Sara Oliver at the CDC has pointed out that Israel and the US have different definitions, but even within each country, the definition is not standardized.
The following quote is from the Israeli newspaper, Haaretz:
Regardless of the definition of severe disease, I am thankful for Israelās amazing vaccination campaign, and for the data they have shared with the world. I would like to point out that according to the Israeli data, two doses of the vaccine remain amazingly effective against severe disease:
Vaccine effectiveness vs. severe disease for those under 50yr = 91.8%
Vaccine effectiveness vs. severe disease for those over 50 = 85.2%
The data above comes from this analysis by Dr. Jeffrey Morris, a statistical data scientist, professor and Director of Biostatistics at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania:
As I mentioned before, Iām going to take my thoughts back to the āInside Medicineā thread where they likely belong. When I questioned the necessity of a third dose, I did not realize how easily that stance could be misinterpreted.
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No one here seems to be listening to whatever talking heads saying that you should try to get COVID-19. (There were some posters last year who were advocating for the population to get infected to get herd immunity that way, but they themselves did not appear to be volunteering to āget it over withā themselves.)
However, it has been found that previous infection and vaccination results in very strong immune response, greater than from either alone.
That does not mean that one should try to get infected, since that is too risky. But it does mean that those who were unlucky enough to be previously infected (perhaps before vaccine was available to them) can get super boosted by getting vaccinated.
Thanks for this great info @3SailAway .
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Regarding https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated , the last table suggests that the rate of severe cases per 100,000 among the fully vaccinated people (presumably with Pfizer as used in Israel) for a given 10 year age range is similar to the rate of severe cases per 100,000 among the unvaccinated people 30 years younger.
Obviously, for any age group, it is much less risky to be vaccinated than unvaccinated, with vaccine effectiveness against severe disease by age group ranging from 81% to 100%.
Donāt get a booster shot before youāre eligible ā hereās why (msn.com)
Youād make it harder for the CDC to track vaccinations
If you get a booster dose before youāre eligible, youāll muddy the water for the CDC to accurately track how many people are vaccinated, Moss said. āIt messes up the numbers if people arenāt honest about it,ā he said.
That data is important: The CDC relies on it to make recommendations and guidance. If the agency thinks more people are vaccinated than they actually are, it could prematurely recommend loosening restrictions or dropping mask mandates, which could cause Covid infections to surge and new variants to emerge.
Fibbing your way to get a booster shot puts a wrench in the agencyās ability to track vaccination rates at a population level, and potentially puts other peoplesā lives at risk. Put simply, itās significantly more important for unvaccinated people to get vaccinated than for vaccinated people to get boosters.
Thatās an interesting article. For the record, I am waiting for the Moderna booster (because itās 1/2 dose). I know people who have lied their way to a 3rd full dose (some of them didnāt even realize it, so Iām thinking some places arenāt asking any qās at all). But then doctors are also contributing to this, as they are telling patients who donāt have the limited conditions required for a 3rd dose to go ahead and get one.
Many people donāt care about others. They have been consistent throughout the pandemic. They hoarded cleaning items and PPE at the beginning, shoved themselves ahead of others to get vaxxed, and are now making sure they get their 3rd doses/boosters. (Iāve even read of someone who didnāt even wait 6 months post-2nd dose to fib their way to a 3rd dose.) And these are people who CAN avoid lots of contact with other people.
I want to also note that many have lost their faith in the CDC after Dr. Walenskyās big blooper in mid-May when she said the vaxxed could unmask in public (she should have realized the antimaskers would take that to mean them, too) and the CDCās announcement that they werenāt going to track breakthrough cases unless they resulted in hospitalization or death.
The CDC never implemented an effective system for tracking covid breakthrough cases, or vaccine distribution. I canāt fix that, but I can take care of my own health. Given the number of doctors who are recommending their patients obtain 3rd shots, I am not the only one who has lost trust in the federal health agencies.
One more time, the supply of vaccine is not limited in the US. So the better analogy, @CTTC, would be to those throwing into their cart another roll of paper towels when the store is fully stocked, versus walking past that aisle. Plenty of towels for all. You may never need them, but if thereās plenty, some choose to get an extra roll or two.
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From the article posted by @compmomā¦
āFibbing your way to get a booster shot puts a wrench in the agencyās ability to track vaccination rates at a population level, and potentially puts other peoplesā lives at risk. Put simply, itās significantly more important for unvaccinated people to get vaccinated than for vaccinated people to get boosters.ā
It is in many ways like those who do not get vaccinated and falsely claim their āpersonalā decision will only impact their own livelihoods. In reality their selfishness clogs the healthcare system.
Experts advise the White House to ABANDON Covid booster plan
Covid US: Experts advise the White House to ABANDON plan to provide booster shots to all | Daily Mail Online
The article posted by @Catcherinthetoast and me, explains, I think, the difference between taking care of public health (tracking, for instance) and individual health.
Public health agencies are not tracking side effects or effectiveness of paper towels, telling us when to buy our next rolls, or considering whether we should change brands.
I agree doctors are recommending the third shot before people are eligible. My doc told me I could consider myself āimmunocompromisedā due to lupus and previous cancer, but I do not meet the criteria of the original CDC list. I do meet the current criteria but am less than 6 months from my second shot. I am still waiting.
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Agree. And Dr. Walenskyās announcement came at the same time other countries were struggling with a variant that seemed to be more aggressive than the current ones circulating in the U.S. - it was something called Delta at the time. I remember wondering how long before it might come to the U.S., and then she makes the announcement to take off masks. I thought, really? Delta looks really bad and itās coming here, why would you tell people to start removing masks?
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Yet another example of what happens in a low-trust society that the US has become. Everyone for themselves and their (perceived) own self-interest, regardless of whether the aggregation of such decisions is bad for everyone (including themselves ā consider the āprisonerās dilemmaā).
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Unfortunately, the CDC has unwittingly encouraged low trust. First there were Fauciā s comments on how masks were unnecessary for the public, done in order to save the masks for health care workers. Many found the public health authoritiesā justication of large scale social protests over the summer, at a time when smaller outdoor funerals were banned in most places, disingenuous. The vaccine rollout itself, which could have been accomplished on the basis of age (as was done in almost every other country) in some states was based on home zip code or other factors in the name of equity.
Add in the inevitable missteps due to changing scientific data( length of the between doses, mixing of doses, etc), and is not surprising that many believe the federal health agencies are not looking out for their best interests anymore.
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While a different conclusion and actions taken you have communicated the views and concerns of the vaccine reluctant (with whom I disagree) somewhat eloquently.
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Ironically, I am not vaccine reluctant at all, and in fact am enforcing the vaccine mandate on behalf of several companies. I wish it had been implemented 6 months ago, when it would have accomplished greater good, but better late than never.
Several of my doctor friends have lost all faith in the CDC and FDA at this point in the ability to respond to a public health crisis ( though not for other things). When doctors express doubt, we have a serious problem.
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