Thing is, when it comes to a tippy top, the more one learns, the more we realize no one person can adequately predict. Not even with years of experience. The best one can guess is she’ll get past first cut. More matters- institutional needs, the nature of local competition (not limited to your hs ) what other flavor the college sees that they like, or not. So much hinges on the app itself, how one answers, what one conveys, LoRs, interview, etc.
Her ECs are good. Lots of good activation in the govt realm. But it takes much more than the simple view of “passion.” More than mostly unilateral. Working throughout the year with the shelter can say much more than short term volunteering to facilitate some effort in a country half across the world.
It’s these subtleties that matter. Not all the highest points. Not every GS award (Gold says enough. But what she actually did will count.) How she interacts with peers, not just adults. How she spread her energies.
Questions and confusion about AP rounding with STEM and which other AP are rigorous courses, not understanding issues with the arms race, even the passionate reference to “passion,” plus some confusion about costs, etc, do suggest one has miles to go. Luckily, you have a year to learn more and fine tune.
What’s she do in hs besides shine? Who is she, besides politics and some advocacy? Friends? Openness to other experiences, not just drive? You’ll need to understand as much as it takes. And then accept that the best shot we can give her is still 50-50: she gets in or not. Keep learning.