APPLICATIONS GROWTH Class of 2012

Parent Cafe
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<p>This is not based on any scientific evidence, but … I think that it is becoming so much more important to attend college & the applications are rising because of that fact. The poor kids, rural kids, kids of color, etc. who not so long ago figured they could never afford college are finding out that there are colleges who will help them afford a degree. As more of the general population decides to go to college, a lot of top students believe they need to go to a school other than their state U in order to differentiate themselves from the masses. These are simplistic observations, and by no means are they all inclusive. They are just some ideas about why apps are increasing.</p>

<p>25 years ago I was a production supervisor in a Big 3 manufacturing plant. Only one of my employees had a college degree, and several had not gone to school past 8th grade. Today, not only do these good jobs not exist as options for young people … but even a similar job would require some college in order to compete for the job. A greater percentage of youth are attending college & as that happens, a greater percentage hope to distinguish themselves in the job market with a “known” degree. Just my take on things.</p>

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<p>wackymother-
I had a link to a graph from the dept of education that shows the HS graduation numbers-- I am looking for it. Unfortunately some old links I had froze my computer–</p>

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<p>tokenadult-
looks like we had this very conversation 2 years ago- but my links no longer work–and meandering the website today brings me to the link you just posted above. The year-by-year graphs are gone…</p>

<p>jym626
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Threads: 143
Posts: 2,281 Here is the nces graph of the projected # of students graduating. YOu will see it peaks in 2009 <a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...f&a=highschool[/url]”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...f&a=highschool&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>*** graduating HS, that is.
Join Date: Oct 2004
Threads: 143
Posts: 2,281 Here are some additional tables from the nces (national center of education statistics)</p>

<p><a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...4.gif&a=elmsec[/url]”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...4.gif&a=elmsec&lt;/a&gt; (attendance rates,by grade)
<strong>EDIT</strong>* Note: the peak # of students in grade 8 4 yrs ago is now the peak # in grade 12)</p>

<p><a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...f&a=highschool[/url]”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...f&a=highschool&lt;/a&gt; ( percent change, by state)</p>

<p><a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...f&a=highschool[/url]”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projecti...f&a=highschool&lt;/a&gt; pub/priv (public/private school projected graduation rates)
08-22-2006, 06:19 PM #11<br>
tokenadult
Super Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: MN
Gender: Not Saying
Threads: 572
Posts: 7,444 Quote:
The number of applicants has been increasing steadily for the past 10 years or so. The high school class of 2008 is projected to be the peak </p>

<p>I’ve seen figures from the federal Projections of Educational Statistics site that may vary by a year or two as to which high school graduating class in the United States will be the largest in the “echo Baby Boom.” I thought it was 2010, but whatever. </p>

<p>More to the issue of when college applications will stop increasing is what happens to </p>

<p>a) the percentage of the high school graduates who apply to college, </p>

<p>and </p>

<p>b) the number of high school graduates in countries other than the United States. </p>

<p>Growth in the above two categories, irrespective of trends in the number of high school students in the United States, lead many scholars to predict that college applications will continue to be more and more competitive at the top schools through at least 2015. That’s how I would plan, if I wanted to be prudent.
Report Problem Post Reply </p>

<p>08-22-2006, 06:37 PM #12<br>
JHS
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Philadelphia
Threads: 10
Posts: 2,063 Thanks to jym for those tables. </p>

<p>It occurs to me that, as with most projections, there are politics in the numbers. Carolyn briefly posted USDOEd projections of four-year college enrollments that were increasing at a steady rate well beyond 2009. All of these projections depend on assumptions about the percentage of kids who will graduate from high school, and the percentage of those kids who will go on to four-year college, and the rates of change in both numbers. Understandably, the USDOEd may be more sanguine about some of those percentages than other researchers (since we have so definitively stopped leaving children behind an all), but being more sanguine doesn’t necessarily mean being wrong. And tokenadult is also doubtless correct that foreign applications are also relevant, and may well increase regardless of domestic population trends. (Although the U.S. government is doing its darndest right now, albeit unintentionally, to make coming here to study less attractive to many foreign students.)</p>

<p>It is also worth pointing out, as jym’s linked graphics make clear, that demographic changes are not going to be uniform across regions and ethnic groups.
Report Problem</p>

144

<p>Yes, this is a recurrent conversation, which is why I have FAQified a newer version of my reply that you quoted above. I think if “Harvard, Princeton, etc.” (colleges mentioned in the titles of this thread) are of interest, the prudent parent will assume that those colleges will still be HARD to get into fifteen years from now, as they surely will be next year.</p>

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<p>here’s what’s happening in Japan…life seems a bit different there…100K applications!</p>

<p>[Universities</a> work to keep applications up : National : DAILY YOMIURI ONLINE (The Daily Yomiuri)](<a href=“http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20080121TDY03103.htm]Universities”>http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20080121TDY03103.htm)</p>

<p>

</p>

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<p>Hey wait!! This table may answer wackymother’s question [Table</a> 24. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: 1991–92 through 2016–17](<a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2016/tables/table_24.asp?referrer=report]Table”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2016/tables/table_24.asp?referrer=report)</p>

<p>The peak graduation # is the year 2008-09, but is pretty close to this year’s graduation #s</p>

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<p>Unfortunately, I don’t see how much one can learn from analyzing the NATIONAL statistics within the context of highly selective colleges. For instance, the changes in the overall population have an extremely small impact on the 23,000 admissions to the Ivy League.</p>

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<p>I agree with Xiggi. International applicant trends as well as increases in college attendance by minorities has little if anything to do with selectivity at top colleges. </p>

<p>International candidates compete in a separate pool from US candidates. A large rise in the number of students from the middle and upper classes in India or China, who would be academically qualified to apply to US colleges will have virtually no effect on selectivity of admission at top institutions. Whether explicitly (MIT) or implictly (Ivies) the number of internationals is capped at between 4 and 8% of total admits and that number has not changed in a decade, despite huge rises in the number of applications. Admission rates for internationals is less than 5% at Harvard and 4% at MIT and getting lower every year. You will simply never see even 10% internationals at Harvard College unless class sizes are greatly expanded which is highly unlikely. In addition, with only about a handful of need blind colleges for internationals in the US, few candidates wealthy enough will shell out $50K per year to attend a second tier institution when they can go to the top institution in their home countries essentially for free. The US’ share of international students has actually been decreasing steadily for the past decade with increased competition from countries such as the UK, Canada and others. Total numbers for internationals are just catching up to pre 9-11 numbers. </p>

<p>As far as URMs, I am sure elite colleges would recruit more of them if they could find enough with proper qualifications. AA is already running on full cylinders at most elite colleges. I just don’t see admission’s offices clogged with applications from hispanic females, the group projected to rise the fastest. </p>

<p>A has been observed by many, the distribution of students at elite colleges will simply never mirror that of the high school population as a whole. It is very heavily skewed to the students from families within the top quintile of income. Top performing high schools will continue to send the overwhelming majority of students to top colleges. If you want to get a feel for changes in selectivity tracking the size of your local high school graduating class is a better indicator than how many students China graduates every year or how many sons or daughters of Mexican immigrants decide to go to college.</p>

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<p>All the stats posted were in response to wackymothers general questions about numbers of applicants (in her posts #138 and 140). At least I took her questions to be general questions about the overall number of applicants coming out of US high schools, to see how much this contributes to the rise in applications. Did I misunderstand, wackymother?</p>

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<p>Yes, that’s right. It was a general question. Thank you!</p>

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<p><a href=“http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/education/17admissions.html?_r=1&oref=slogin[/url]”>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/education/17admissions.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&lt;/a&gt; </p>

<p>“The reasons for the swelling numbers — not all colleges have reported yet — go beyond the growth in the college age population and the preoccupation with name-brand schools. Recruiting by elite colleges among low- and middle-income students and in new regions are bringing in more applications.”</p>

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<p>This is another quote from the NYT article, consistent with what we are all saying;

</p>

153

<p>“The thing is we started our job as far ago as a decade before. Then things and policies changed when our kids got to the age of college admission.”</p>

<p>As someone who has been following admissions trends for more than 25 years, I totally disagree with this statement. The Ivies and other selective colleges have always been tough to get into. Yes, the percentages continue to drop, but unless you were a rich legacy at a prep school, admission to an Ivy was never a sure thing, never something that a kid could work towards and be confident about attaining. We always told our daughter how hard it was to get into these schools. </p>

<p>As for “things and policies changing” – these schools have ALWAYS looked at celebrities, athletes, legacies and development candidates differently. There have been no policy changes (that I’m aware of) in the last 10 years making it easier for these students to be accepted. If anything, it is tougher now to get in now for these students than 10 years ago – admissions standards, especially for legacies, are often just as tough as for the rest of the applicant pool.</p>

<p>I agree that it would be very interesting to learn what the straight acceptance rate is for unhooked students, and I would like to know that percentage for both ED/EA and RD. Many years ago someone told me that number for my alma mater, and it was extremely low (sorry, I don’t remember either the number or how long ago it was). Also remember that there is overlap in these categories, that there are students who are both legacy and athlete, for example. </p>

<p>And one more thing – it has gotten much harder for the unhooked upper middle class student (possibly add female) from the Northeast to get into these schools. I wonder if the growth in applications is mainly from this demographic, and if the selectivity has risen mainly in this demographic. For the son of a farmer who lives in North Dakota, I’ll bet the chance of getting into an Ivy is the same now as it was 10 years ago.</p>

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<p>From a “news-makers” standpoint..….appears that the first wave of schools wanting to make their good news of increased applications known has past. Regardless of the change magnitudes, I find which schools chose to get the news out fast very interesting.</p>

<p>One more snippet I found this AM….NYU expounding upon their increased yield (good news for NYU) from last year, causing them to accept fewer ED this year. The estimate for total apps this year is 34-35k, but the article doesn’t mention how that number relates to last year, although it does mention an overall 10 year increase.</p>

<p><a href=“http://media.www.nyunews.com/media/storage/paper869/news/2008/01/22/Citystate/Admissions.Nyu.Accepts.2.Fewer.Apps.Early.Decision-3160628.shtml[/url]”>http://media.www.nyunews.com/media/storage/paper869/news/2008/01/22/Citystate/Admissions.Nyu.Accepts.2.Fewer.Apps.Early.Decision-3160628.shtml&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Unfortunately, I could only find admission data for the incoming call of Fall 2006, 2 years ago….35,448 undergrad applicants, so it appears that (assuming fall 2007 is consistent) while yield may be increasing, NYU is not apparently experiencing the same application increase boom as others reported thus far on this thread.</p>

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<p>Is there anywhere that lists colleges, not just the elites, and number of apps change from previous year?</p>

<p>The reasons for the increase seem to be:</p>

<p>*the 2008 year as the peak in HS students (see link above),
*ease of application (online),
*highly involved and equally motivated parents (see my cc id)</p>

<p>*unpredicatiblility of the admissions process</p>

<p>*the economy sucks, and getting accepted is really only phase 1 of the app process. Phase 2 is getting the best bottom line out the door price you can. This takes playing one college with another. If this sounds as low brow as buying a car from a car dealer, you definitely have the right image. The colleges even refer to their pricing as ‘sticker prices’ (!) Ach!</p>

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<p>“In 2004, Lawrence Summers, then Harvard’s president, pointed out that three-fourths of the students at selective colleges come from the top income quartile and only 9 percent from the bottom two quartiles combined.”</p>

<p>"The scandalous fact is that between 2004 and 2006 — an era of enormous private wealth accumulation — 27 of the 30 top-ranked American universities and 26 of the top 30 liberal arts colleges saw a decline in the percentage of low-income (Pell-grant-eligible) students. The problem Mr. Summers described is only growing worse. While some upper-middle-class families have to sacrifice in order to pay for college and may deserve more financial help, most of their children find a way to attend college. "</p>

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<p>

</p>

<p>This is so true. My DD applied to no fewer than nine schools, including four safeties. Four! Because she has to fish for the best aid. If money were no object, she would have applied to her first choice ED and been done with it.</p>

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<p>This needs to be said more often: the state (all of us together), really needs to send more money to more student applicants.</p>

<p>This, to me, is a root cause of, the underlying condition for, all these shenanigans of fishing for the best deal. </p>

<p>I believe that education is a priority to all of us, and that education has a ‘compelling public interest’ to the state, and therefore there should be more real aid available.</p>

<p>I have not seen enough of this as an issue by any of the presidential candidates.</p>

<p>Has anyone seen this brought out by any candidate? Who? He (OR SHE !) would have this parent’s vote - with two more students soon on the way, and a rumors at my firm of big layoffs.</p>

<p>I think I am going to post this question as new thread.</p>

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<p>Papa Chicken, this may help you with your analysis of NYU. </p>

<p>Fewer apply to Class of 2011: Admins cite new SAT II requirements
2/20/07</p>

<p>

</p>

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<p>Of course, the numbers reported for the Class of 2010 were a bit different, depending on the audience. :)</p>

<p>Applied 35,448
Admitted 12,842
Overall Admission Rate 36%
Enrolled 5,892 (46% Yield )</p>

<p>Early Decision 3397 applicants
ED Admission Rate 33%</p>

<p>Wait List 1402
Admitted 84</p>