<p>Because the MIT administration is generally secretive about average GPAs there is much speculation on this topic. A commonly heard estimate is 4.2/5.0. A look at Quora <a href="http://www.quora.com/Massachusetts-Institute-of-Technology-MIT-2/What-does-the-distribution-of-MIT-GPAs-look-like">http://www.quora.com/Massachusetts-Institute-of-Technology-MIT-2/What-does-the-distribution-of-MIT-GPAs-look-like</a> gives a similar impression. However, I believe a closer inspection of the little actual data we have suggests the real average GPA is almost certainly much higher and probably closer to 4.4.</p>
<p>There are four sources I have found that I would believe have actual access to GPA data.
(1) 2000 report on Pass/No Record (<a href="http://web.mit.edu/committees/cup/subcommittees/pnrap/part3.pdf">http://web.mit.edu/committees/cup/subcommittees/pnrap/part3.pdf</a>). The report contains average GPAs by semester for all classes (page 40) as well as GPA distributions for each of these groups (35). Unfortunately, the data are obviously quite old.
(2) 2008 report on Pass/No Record and Sophomore Exploratory (<a href="https://web.mit.edu/committees/cup/mit-only/P-NRandExp.pdf">https://web.mit.edu/committees/cup/mit-only/P-NRandExp.pdf</a> requires MIT certificates). Gives average GPAs for sophomores for several years as well as data on the percentage of Ds and Fs for freshmen and sophomores. Data is still old and the two data sources of data in the report contradict each other.
(3) Data on average FSILG GPA (<a href="http://tech.mit.edu/V134/N8/fsilg.html">http://tech.mit.edu/V134/N8/fsilg.html</a>). By far the most recent data but only for a subset of students. Unclear how the data deal with P/NR grades.
(4) 2004 Data on junior year GPAs comparing FSILG students to residence hall students (<a href="http://web.mit.edu/aurorarp/report.html">http://web.mit.edu/aurorarp/report.html</a>). Old data and only for juniors but allows for a more accurate comparison of (3). </p>
<p>What do the data say?
(1) From AY1995-6 to AY1999-2000 average GPAs were 4.1-4.2 for sophomores, 4.2-4.3 for juniors, and ~4.3 for seniors (page 40). It all gives data on freshmen grades which were then not included at all in GPAs. This shows that average GPAs were slightly above 4.2 in the late 1990s. Given an increase in average grades this is probably consistent with a current average GPA around 4.4.
(2) Data from the Registrar's office gives average sophomore GPA as 4.3 for all the most recent terms in the report (which were up to 2007). The other data source gave the average sophomore GPA as usually 4.2 although it was 4.3 for one term. The report noted the sources were slightly different but said it shouldn't be significant which seems to contradict the persistent difference in average sophomore GPA between them. In any case, this shows definite evidence of grade inflation compared with the previous report. Accounting for the inclusion of second semester freshmen GPA is difficult but assuming the increase in grades affected juniors and seniors as well as sophomores this would be consistent with an average GPA of roughly 4.3-4.4 in 2007 and some higher average GPA today.
(3) FSILG average was 4.38 last fall.
(4) Junior year average GPAs were 4.30 for residence hall males, 4.27 for residence hall females, 4.19 for FSILG males, and 4.28 for FSILG females. No date is given for the data but given the report was from 2004 it is presumably early 2000s. This data would be consistent with mild inflation since the report (1). This also suggests that 4.38 average from (3) is a slight underestimate of current average GPA.</p>
<p>What does Eddie's Quora post get wrong?
Eddie cites four sources. The last two are random people making claims without citations and can be ignored. He also cites two of my sources (2) and (3) but neither support a conclusion that the current average GPA is 4.2.</p>
<p>Conclusions:
(1) It is hard to see how any of the data are consistent with an average GPA of 4.2. My current guess would be 4.4/5 but I acknowledge considerable uncertainty in the estimate.
(2) FSILGs better find some actual data supporting their claim that they have higher average GPAs given (4).</p>
<p>If anyone has other sources or methodological suggestions/comments I am very interested in hearing them and very willing to revise my estimates given new data. I will post this to Quora at some point as well.</p>