<p>Disclosure:I am a parent with a junior and freshman in HS and am curious about this phenomena.</p>
<p>In 1989 there were over 4 million live births in the US for the first time since the 1964. This represented a rather rapid increase over the preceding few years. In addition, the boomlet peaks in 1990. </p>
<p>The 9% increase in births between 1987 and 1990 is pretty dramatic. I would think that colleges will not be expanding facilities and programs to meet the temporary influx on high school students that are now applying for admission.
These 1989-90 babies are now high school juniors and senior vying for college admission. Assuming that top notch students are increasing at the same rate as births during these years, the Ivies would seemingly have no room for students they, in the past, have accepted. The increase in good students would then then ripple down through the college pecking order.</p>
<p>Are there any signs that this is happening? Are there other factors that mitigate or amplify these demographics as a factor in applications/admissions? Are admission standards from the top on down likely to change significantly in the next couple of years from the admission data of only a year ago?</p>
<p>That's pretty crazy, but it makes sense. My guidence counselor has always been telling me that nothing is a sure thing because admissions are so different today than even a few years ago.</p>
<p>There's a good chance that if your kids have equivalent grades, scores, ECs, the school that ends up being your junior child's safety will be your freshman child's match school.</p>
<p>As a parent of a female senior, I have been conscious of this fact coupled with the higher percentage of girls born in 1989. My D's decision as to which high school to attend took this into account.(she chose public).</p>
<p>Aren't we also competing with ever-increasing horde of internationals? Rapid economic boom in Asian countries is enabling their middle class kids to seek US college admissions.</p>
<p>APOL, I am an '89-er female. What % of the births were female in that year?</p>
<p>Beantown-forgive delayed response-I understand the projection is between 60-70% of the applicants for college are expected to be from females..if this is the case...then schools that strive for a balanced m/f ratio will be more selective with their f applicants.</p>
<p>don't forget about the baby boomer generation's wealth. On the whole, it is probably the richest generation and they can afford to send son/daughter to SAT classes and such</p>
<p>If your child is a very strong applicant who applies to 3/4 reach schools, he/she will be accepted at some of those reach schools. Applicantions are competitive, but no one is getting "screwed" in this process.</p>
<p>And Northstarmom, im curious as to why you believe that will be the case if the number of births are declining? (where in 1992 there were fewer than 1990, so it would make sense that the freshman child would have it easier) </p>
<p>Most schools consider international students as a seperate pool, so while it will be more competitive for them, they will not affect American students at most schools.</p>
<p>The increases peak with the graduating class of '09. Increases year-to-year are generally on the order of 1-2% (and just a bit over half of students who graduate from HS go on to 4-year colleges). That's discouraging, but not exactly overwhelming. Next year's class of '08 is in for a particularly nasty demographic hit, it seems. (DD is a junior :eek:)</p>
<p>Anther factor that fuels the worries over competitive admissions is that this time of year, colleges start to release the preliminary figures on their applicant pool. Headlines reading "Applications were up 15%" sounds scary to any HS senior; what is seldom mentioned is that increasing numbers of those incoming apps are "soft" applications from students who are unlikely to attend, but who apply because it's so easy with the common app or because the application fee is waived. Often the big increases in the applicant pool are offset by lower yields come spring.</p>
<p>If this is a serious post, what planet have you been living on? There is huge evidence that college admissions have been enormously impacted by the numbers. Add in the fact that the internet has spread info on top colleges to groups previously less familiar with them, the growth of international applicants to top schools and the standards for top colleges are far beyond what they were in the past.</p>