Before asking "Chances me @ Duke"; First, compare your stats with class of 2022 profile

‘Take with a grain of salt’ I posted one for Rice and decided to write similar discussion in Duke’s thread.

— First, SAT Composite 1525, ACT Composite 34 - (Middle 50% for Accepted Students)
Duke 2022 profile: https://admissions.duke.edu/images/uploads/process/Classof2022profileWEB.pdf

— Next, high school admission stats (600 students, middle income, no ranking) Naviance Scattergrams results.
Between 2016 - 2018, 40+ students applied to Duke.
2 admit - Max GPA, @1540 SAT and @35ACT
1 waitlist - Max GPA, @1440 SAT
No results for 2019

One can argue Duke is more competitive than Rice but somethings are very similar, like makeup of accepted/enrolled profile. Test Scores and Accepted Diversity are very close.

Accepted students - Rice 2328, Duke 3219

Asian American - Rice 27%, Duke 28%
African American - Rice 10%, Duke 10%
Caucasian Rice - 36%, Duke 48% (because geography)

Duke is bigger but Rice feels big because larger town. Duke has Medical school and College Sports is big plus for Duke.

If you are near Houston, I would prefer Rice and if I’m near Durham NC it’s all about Duke Blue Devils

In conclusion, apply Duke with a competitive SAT/ACT but have a backup plan.