Bob Lutz: "There are just too few engineers and too many MBAs"

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<p>Just because engineering is useful as a profession does not change the fact that a star engineer is not that useful when he’s just another cog in the machinery. Again, what good is it to hire Albert Einstein to write Perl scripts?</p>

<p>And FYI, our society rewards people very well who innovate. Start the next social networking site, build the next smartphone, make an innovative game. But again, if a star applies for a job for which he is dramatically overqualified, I don’t find it unfair that he is not compensated all that well.</p>

<p>I do agree with what you said about the banks, bailouts, etc.
I’m no expert, but its not outlandish to think that big-banking pays well partially because they can fall back on the taxpayers. But of course, the auto-industry also got bailed out. And they have plenty of engineers.</p>

<p>And I believe in the grand scheme of things, these social/political factors do not affect salaries as much as you may think. Well, I definitely have to admit I’m pretty ignorant about these matters. Anyway, its really quite difficult to quantify the effect of taxpayer bailouts on the salary of investment bankers. I don’t deny that it could be significant, but its hard to say.</p>

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<p>The individuals who innovate are usually those in research/academia and not in engineering firms? Barring the individuals who are brilliant is it wrong to say then that masters and PhD students are the ones who innovate since they perform research? </p>

<p>I agree that the best students from the top schools leaving engineering altogether is a little distressing but if they are not intent on pursuing masters or PhD’s how much would they innovate anyways?</p>

<p>^ Perhaps we should pay Master’s/PhD students more than engineers?</p>

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<p>lol haha…Sakky brought up the point of engineers from elite schools going into finance or something other then engineering. I was just wondering if this matters since most innovation is done in research and by profs?</p>

<p>I’m actually serious. You raise a good point… graduate students and professors do a lot of innovation, and graduate students get paid pretty poorly. What is the average annual take-home for graduate students?</p>

<p>If you count tuition and stipend from assistantships and the average fellowship amount… I’m guessing a lot of STEM graduate students make less than $50k/year, and probably significantly less. Depending on cost-of-living, lots of graduate students are probably at the poverty line or below it. And this is for students who get a completely free ride and then some… what about students who take out loans? Considering the amount of valuable research that comes out of academia, I wonder whether we’d be better off taxing everybody more and redistributing this to academics.</p>

<p>Screw engineers. What America needs are more and better-paid graduate students.</p>

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<p>Your premise is flawed, or ought to be, as the next Albert Einstein would not be hired to write Perl scripts, but rather to develop the next top innovation. </p>

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<p>Actually, no, they don’t. At least, not exactly. They reward those people who build the best companies who innovate, which is why I said that those engineers who found startups are effectively becoming businesspeople. </p>

<p>On the other hand, those companies who hire engineers who create top innovations do not really pay those engineers anywhere near their value that they created for society. Let’s face it: if you’re working for a company and you invent the next billion-dollar innovation, you won’t be paid a billion dollars. Heck, you probably won’t even be paid a million dollars. You might be promoted, or you might receive a bump in your year-end bonus. But you won’t receive anything close to the value that you created. Most engineers working in the R&D or product development departments are making relatively average engineering salaries, despite (presumably) delivering valuable innovations. {If they weren’t, then why do those companies even have R&D or product development departments at all?} </p>

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<p>As I explained before, the auto industry bailout was a full order of magnitude smaller in dollar value than the financial industry bailout. Furthermore, the auto industry bailout highly punitive in nature, being accompanied by wholesale layoffs, particularly in management. Both Rick Wagoner, CEO of GM, and Robert Nardelli, CEO of Chrysler, were fired. In contrast, the management of most of the pre-crisis banks are still there. Couple that with the fact that individual banks are even larger than they were before the crash, and the next financial bailout will surely have to be even larger than the recent one. But even more importantly, individual bankers were directly implicated, through a strategy of financial transactions that increased the overall risk to the system, in the financial crash, and for which they had earned bonuses throughout the 2000’s which they will never give back. In contrast, it’s not as if the auto engineers at GM or Chrysler designed a dangerous car that exploded and therefore necessitated a bailout. </p>

<p>The upshot is that, whether we like it or not, the taxpayers will always need to stand vigilant for a giant financial bailout, and that will always mean that banking compensation will always be a matter of the public interest.</p>

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<p>Well, I don’t know about that. One only needs to look at the software and Internet industries to note the vast number of valuable innovations being delivered by people who only have bachelor’s degrees or sometimes never even graduated from college at all (or in a few cases, never even graduated from high school). I think it’s hard to dispute that the software/Internet industries are among the most innovative industries in the world. {Just consider the fact that merely a decade ago, Facebook, Twitter, Groupon, Linkedin, Youtube, Skype, and the original Ipod - let alone the Iphone - didn’t even exist, and Google was still a private company that had only recently begun to sell advertising.} </p>

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<p>But that question is inherently endogenous - many engineers from the top undergrad programs do not pursue masters or PhD’s because they know that even if they did, they still wouldn’t be particularly well even after they finished their advanced degrees, compared to what they could obtain in other industries such as finance. </p>

<p>But, to speak to your direct question, what is even more disturbing is that a large percentage of even those who obtain master’s or PhD degrees from top engineering universities nevertheless also take jobs in finance or consulting. For example, one need only note the strikingly large number of MIT PhD’s in engineering in 2008 (the last year where PhD info was available) who took jobs not in engineering or academia, but rather in consulting or banking. For example, I see that a number of MIT PhD’s in engineering took jobs at…Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, Deloitte, Boston Consulting Group, Booz Allen Hamilton, and so forth. </p>

<p><a href=“http://web.mit.edu/career/www/infostats/graduation08.pdf[/url]”>http://web.mit.edu/career/www/infostats/graduation08.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Just consider what that means. To obtain a PhD in engineering from MIT means that not only do you have one of the most gifted engineering minds in the world, but perhaps more importantly, you also must be highly passionate and excited about engineering. Otherwise, let’s face it, you wouldn’t have completed the PhD, for it is that passion that is going to drive you through the low points that inevitably befall every PhD student. Yet even of these highly passionate and brilliant engineering minds, a not insignificant percentage of them decide not to take engineering jobs - and that surely represents a vast loss of innovative potential to the world. How much better would the world be if they had actually stayed in engineering and developed the next great research breakthrough, rather than, say, devising the next financial security that eventually explodes and necessitates another taxpayer bailout?</p>

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<p>Then think of it this way. If you think that the taxpayer bailout of bankers did not affect their salaries in a significant way, then why not, right now, bail out all of the old veterans of the dotcom bust of the early 2000’s? Give them access to nearly a trillion dollars below-market-rate capital with which they can build another company or restore their personal financial situations. If it’s true that the bailout of the financial industry didn’t really affect banker salaries much, then the bailout of the old dotcom veterans won’t affect their salaries much either, right? </p>

<p>Or, heck, if you don’t want to give the old dotcom veterans a bailout, then why not prepare a near-trillion-dollar bailout for the victims of the crash of the current boom (which is indeed likely to crash)? I’m sure that they wouldn’t mind that one bit. </p>

<p>That, in a nutshell, has captured my fundamental objection to the notion that the bailout did not heavily distort market incentives, or was otherwise a large taxpayer expenditure in the grand scheme of things. For those who truly believe that, fair enough, why not offer the bailout money to me? I’ll take it.</p>

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<p>I would actually be less concerned about this point if scientists and engineers were paid more than they are. Graduate students would then have to put up with a low-paid lifestyle but in return for the later promise of high pay once they graduate. That is little different from the current notion of undergrads having to pay to attend college but in exchange for earning higher salaries once they graduate, compared to if they had not attended college. </p>

<p>But I certainly agree that MS/PhD-holding scientists and engineers aren’t paid particularly well either, to the point that many newly minted PhD’s from the best schools sadly emigrate from their academic fields and towards consulting or finance.</p>

<p>Hey, I found out how to quote!

Are you kidding? You really think most of these innovations are valuable? If innovation means more FarmVille and 140-character memos then I don’t think we need so many innovative people after all.</p>

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<p>Really? Twitter and Facebook have changed the face of media. You can’t turn on CNN for 15 minutes without hearing about how to follow some news anchor on Twitter.
[Wikipedia</a> for Twitter Revolution](<a href=“http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_Revolution]Wikipedia”>Twitter Revolution - Wikipedia)</p>

<p>And I think Facebook and the other recent tech innovations have added real value for many people - just ask families that are spread out over the world who communicate through Facebook, Skype, etc. Sharing pictures of a 4th of July BBQ with extended family wasn’t nearly as easy 10 years ago as it is now. That’s real value, to me.</p>

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You also can’t watch CNN for 15 minutes without hearing about Casey Anthony or the latest celebrity breakup. Just because something is popular doesn’t mean it is valuable lol.

Okay, you’re probably right about Skype. Improved videoconferencing has generated a lot of new possibilities compared to 2001. I don’t agree about the pictures though. The biggest change there is better hardware allowing more and larger photos to be shared.</p>

<p>I’m not saying that there haven’t been some important innovations, but Internet companies aren’t the most innovative in the world in my opinion. Certain areas of that industry have made some big changes, but they aren’t usually the most publicized. There isn’t any real benefit because people play FarmVille instead of Freecell now.</p>

<p>The Web 2.0 and social media innovations might be mostly “make nothing”, but they are only a small portion (and likely the most visible) of the offering hi tech companies produce.</p>

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Sakky specifically referred to software and Internet companies, not all of high-tech.</p>

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<p>A significant amount of taxpayers are homeowners, and wanted to preserve the equity in their homes, and/or not be forced out of their homes due to foreclosure.</p>

<p>Engineers have it pretty nice, actually. Spend a minimum of four years and you can be earning a comfortable living not to mention working in a very interesting field. There is a large portion of scientists, specifically physicists and chemists, working at a dead-end government research lab that pays roughly half of what an engineer can expect right out of a 4 year bachelor’s degree. With engineering, if you remotely enjoy your work and are at least somewhat competent, you can eventually move into management and earn a very decent salary. The only real problem that might deter some serious students is the job outsourcing which can definitely be solved by the government if they actually cared and weren’t in the pockets of corporations.</p>

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<p>Well, first of all, I never talked about Farmville (or, specifically, Zynga). But I would argue that, however ‘uninnovative’ you may think Farmville to be, it’s still more innovative than what most companies do. Let’s face it - figuring out how to convince more people to buy more junk food or beer is not exactly the epitome of useful innovation. </p>

<p>But regarding Twitter, why isn’t that innovative? Surely you realize that the world learned about many of the details of the Iranian Presidential election protests in 2009 and much of the spontaneous organization of protesters that have brought down or threatened the regimes of numerous Arab nations this year was channeled through Twitter. Similarly, Twitter users exchanged real-time information regarding attack locations, body counts, and locations of medical facilities and security zones during the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. How many other companies can boast of building technologies that proved to be instrumental in such worldwide social and emergency response movements? </p>

<p>Now, certainly I agree with you that Twitter is often times used for frivolous purposes, just as all technologies can and have been. For example, the computer itself is one of the most groundbreaking inventions in history, yet people nowadays often times use computers just to play games and surf Internet porn all day long. Similarly, the airplane is surely another momentous technological achievement in world history, but many people frivolously use airplanes solely as a means to enjoy vacations at tropical resorts. But at least the technologies can and have been used to create social value, even if not all the time. Twitter has been a key communications medium in effecting worldwide social & political reform. How many other companies can say the same? </p>

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<p>In contrast, the vast majority of industries barely innovate at all. Honestly, how much innovation does the consumer goods industry produce? How about the food/beverage industry? How about the travel/hospitality industry? How about the retail industry? Again, you may argue that Farmville is not particularly innovative, but I don’t see how that’s any worse than trying to convince customers to buy Budweiser over Miller or vice versa. After all, beer is beer. </p>

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<p>Um, that would seem to be an argument for bailing out the homeowners, not the banks. Even if the banks all defaulted because they were never bailed out, that should have no first-order impact upon homeowners equity and mortgage payment schedules. After all, if I’m a homeowner, and my local bank through which I obtained my mortgage were to declare bankruptcy, then that doesn’t directly impact me. I would not be foreclosed upon if I continue to pay my mortgage bills. My homeowner’s equity would be determined by local real-estate prices. </p>

<p>Where the bailout was deemed necessary was to prevent any second-order effects, in that a freeze in the banking payments and clearing system because of a default might result in the entire economy falling down. I might then lose my job which would then prevent me from paying my mortgage. Even if I don’t lose my job, enough of my neighbors might lose their jobs such that local real estate prices might plummet, thereby reducing my equity. </p>

<p>But that only means that the banks effectively took the rest of the economy hostage: bail us out, or we’ll instigate financial Armageddon. That is in fact why I and many others (grudgingly) conceded that the bailout was necessary. </p>

<p>But that only reinforces the notion that banking compensation packages and policies are very much a concern of the taxpayers, and rightfully so. Not only should nobody be allowed to take the rest of the economy hostage, nobody should especially be allowed to pocket high bonuses while devising financial bombs that will place the rest of the economy on a knife’s edge.</p>

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Your comparisons don’t make sense because we’re talking about engineering and maybe science. Advertising doesn’t have anything to do with it.</p>

<p>Just because Twitter has been used in important ways doesn’t make it innovative. If my city bought like 50 new Ford Escapes and then used them during an emergency, it doesn’t mean Ford is more innovative than other car companies. Other cars might have worked just as well lol.</p>

<p>Anyways, none of this post makes sense in the context of what you said earlier. You brought up Internet companies after somebody else said that most innovation happens in academia or R&D labs. If the stuff you said here is true, then doesn’t that actually make this point even more clear?</p>

<p>I think the real problem is how you define “innovation”. Certainly there are lots of examples of IT being innovative (e.g. GPU computing in the last ~5 years) that I doubt anybody would argue aren’t innovative. Similarly, even though car companies tout the “innovations” in new models of cars, I don’t feel like most of that stuff represents important innovation in the practice of mechanical engineering (how much has the IC engine changed since it was invented?)</p>

<p>Academics probably view what they do as more innovative, and IT gurus probably view what they do as more innovative. I’m sure there are engineers who really believe the tweaks to the new cars are more innovative. Propose a method for measuring innovation (rather than just a good product that sells a lot… as sakky pointed out, beer sells but it isn’t particularly innovative) and then we can discuss what is “innovative” or not.</p>

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<p>Actually, this premise is flawed. Sure, Ford might not be more innovative than other car companies, but car companies * in general* have been highly innovative. If cars didn’t exist at all, then you city would have nothing to use in the emergency that you invoked in your example. </p>

<p>Similarly, I never argued that Twitter was more innovative than other instant communications/microblogging sites, but rather that those microblogging sites have, as a whole, been innovative, and I simply used Twitter as a well-recognized example of such microblogging sites. Certainly I agree that if Twitter didn’t exist, Iranian protesters might have used Yammer or NotePub instead. But some sort of microblogging had to exist at all. They have been innovative as a general class of technologies. </p>

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<p>It does indeed, because advertising ‘innovation’ (if that is in fact innovation at all) is all that many, probably most, industries really provide. Beer was invented thousands of years ago and hasn’t really changed since. Beer recipes rarely change, and even when they do, most people can’t tell the difference in blind taste-tests anyway (especially when they’re drunk). You could take the same beer recipe that was invented thousands of years ago, and probably successfully sell it via a strong marketing campaign, once the recipe was upgraded to today’s health code standards (of which could be argued is a public-health ‘innovation’).</p>

<p>The main reason why certain beers predominate over others in the market therefore has to do with marketing and advertising. That is why beer companies have been noted for producing some of the most memorable advertising campaigns in history that, perhaps not coincidentally, have little to do with the product at all. After all, does anybody really believe that drinking a particular brand of beer will instantly make you popular with a bevy of bikini-clad models? </p>

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<p>Your premise is wrong; please read my posts again. I never once said that much (or perhaps even most) innovation does not occur in academia or R&D labs. Indeed, I have always agreed that plenty does. </p>

<p>What I said is that plenty of innovation also occurs outside of academia & R&D labs by people who never earned graduate degrees at all, and including some people who never even graduated from college or even high school, and I used the Internet/IT industry as an example. Now, whether they actually produce more innovation than do people in academia is not for me to say, for that is ultimately an empirical question. I don’t presume to know the answer to that question. </p>

<p>I simply said that Internet/IT engineers do create innovation - and certainly more innovation than most other people in most other professions. Again as an example, the retail and consumer goods industries are some of the largest industries in the world - by many orders of magnitude larger in revenue than the Internet industry is - yet, frankly, how much innovation occurs in those industries?</p>