I think your hypothesis needs more than just 2022. Any given year can be an outlier.
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Don’t have time right now to run the full numbers again, but for the T5 STEM in each county, there is still a sizable disparity for 2021: 16.5% (Santa Clara), 36.2% (Orange).
4 of those OC high schools (exception is Troy) are in Irvine. Irvine school district is really good (for stem and overall). Always very jealous when I visit one of those schools. Troy (in Fullerton) is also excellent.
I am not at all surprised by the high acceptance rates and yield.
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Knowing nothing about the Irvine schools, I am only surprised by the acceptance rates in comparison to the rates for the Santa Clara schools. They are all excellent STEM schools (among the best in the country). The rates for these two groups of 5 schools are comparable (within a few percent either way) at UCB, UCLA, UCSD, UCD… just not UCI where there is a nearly 20% absolute acceptance rate difference (>200% relative). That seems off to me and I’m trying to figure out why (e.g., are there collaborative research opportunities available to the local students that are not available elsewhere and that carry significant importance to AOs?). I’m sure there are excellent STEM schools in Irvine, but that doesn’t explain the difference, as there are excellent STEM schools in many well-to-do locales… especially in the heart of Silicon Valley!
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Maybe it’s just a self-fulfilling prophecy and it’s as simple as that. If Irvine is a “commuter school” (somewhat), then locals apply and locals are accepted and locals enroll. And UCI knows this, and proceeds accordingly. When and if UCI sheds more of its (something as of) “commuter school” reputation, more non-locals will apply, more non-locals will be accepted, and more non-locals will enroll. (Doesn’t explain the Sacramento thing though.) I’ve heard that UC Davis has a similar preference for students from the Bay Area (nearby) and northern CA. But I also sense that all the UC campuses prefer to enroll students from ALL CA high schools in ALL CA counties. It seems to be a goal.
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That would explain the higher # of enrollees, but not the higher acceptance rate. For the comparison above of top STEM schools in SCC and OC, there were even more applications from the T5 in Santa Clara than the T5 in Orange. Speculation that UCI admits in-state with consideration of yield rate implies either a local preference (trying to hit a % of OC enrollees), or yield protection… neither of which UCs are supposed to do (this is different than yield management w.r.t. OOS vs in state). It is not that UCI enrolls a large number of OC students (that is expected given the high yield rate), rather that they are admitting OC students at a higher rate as well. There are lots of variables at play here, which is why more transparency in admissions processes and data would be welcomed by many. Lacking that transparency (which is certainly difficult with holistic admissions), large acceptance rate disparities between schools/counties with similar demographics cause concern.
w.r.t. UC Davis local preference… I didn’t see it for the 5v5 STEM schools (UCI-OC was the only outlier among the most selective UCs for those 10 schools), but I’d not be surprised if the data show some differences in the ag programs (with many of the SoCal and Central Coast applicants opting for SLO)… I didn’t look for that.
The obvious takeaway here is that the only way UCI can prove these allegations and perceptions false is to accept my kid tomorrow (today) 
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UCI is a bit of a mystery to me too. I have a scheduled tour all set up though, if my DD is admitted (yes later today). What I know about it is mainly that LOTS of students there want to be go to medical school after UCI and choose their majors accordingly (not my DD, so maybe she has a shot). And I hear it’s a beautiful campus. Many of the UCs have beautiful campuses thankfully! Part of the incredible beauty of our state. And only 18 minutes from Disneyland–my DD is a big fan of Disneyland but I guess if she’s admitted and enrolls she’ll be too busy studying to get an annual pass there. . .
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Are your numbers above for freshman admit only? Many local students attend CC and have a direct path to UCI after two years.
We live 25 min away and my daughter didn’t apply there because it’s a commuter/ suitcase school.
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Yes, freshmen admit data pulled from UC admission by source school database.
This is the first idea that might explain a significant difference… which is why more transparency in admissions data is always good. If this is the case, admissions data by major & county would clear up any misperception real quick!
Very interesting data for Santa Clara County. One possibility is there is some self selection going on among the Santa Clara County applicant pool. Paly, Gunn, Saratoga, MV and Lynbrook are in the heart of Silicon Valley where college prestige matters a ton to students and parents. They are affluent enough that they would rather send their kids to privates or OOS top-ranked STEM state flagships if not admitted to Cal or UCLA and now including Davis and San Diego. Irvine for whatever reason is not in that higher tier group for those families, so not as many apply and if they do apply, it’s more a carpet-bombing approach to all UCs. But given the high stat qualifications of the students and the families’ willingness to pay, those accepted may have more options and forgo Irvine. But I do think your numbers do give one pause to the regional preference theory.
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In the UIUC forum, I posted my analysis of the top ten OOS zip codes of enrolled students and number one is Cupertino with 142 enrolled students. And in the top ten list, NorCal Bay Area cities featured prominently, Fremont (#2 with 120 enrolled students), West San Jose (#5, 77) and Saratoga (#7, 64). These zip codes (except Fremont which has very similar demographics with Santa Clara County) overlap with Saratoga HS, Lynbrook HS and Monta Vista HS…3 of the 5 featured in spreadsheet. That’s a lot of enrolled students from just one school district in one college, one that is renowned for its CS and engineering programs, surely a magnet to Bay Area students who grew up around tech.
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Valid considerations, but that would not explain the acceptance rate disparity… only higher yield/enrollment from OC. The number of students applying from the two 5-school groups is ~equal, so small sample size is not at play here as far as applications. All excellent schools… thousands of combined applications per year.
Agree on all points, and the one top STEM school I left out of the analysis was Mission San Jose, because it is Alameda County and I wanted to keep it simple… including it instead of Paly would have made the number even worse, FWIW. Again though, you are speaking of enrollment, not acceptance rate… I fully expect local yield to be higher.
By self-selection, I mean the high-stat kids from those schools don’t even “bother” applying to Irvine and the carpet bombers are the lower-stat kids who may not compare as well with the OC kids, hence the lower admit rates and even if admitted, the “lower-stat” kids (in quotes because these so-called lower-stat kids are still competitive and outstanding coming from these high-performing schools) have other options due to parents’ willingness to pay full freight and do not end up enrolling in Irvine. Again just a theory… my guess is if there’s regional preference it’s an understanding that Irvine must be aware that yield is pretty poor from Santa Clara schools and whether they act on that awareness is anyone’s guess.
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I don’t think there is much self-selection going on. Every high stat kid in these schools knows that a UCB/UCLA admit is unlikely for the best of them, so UCI gets a lot of apps. In my own competitive bay area school district, UCB and UCI get similar volume of apps but the UCI admit rate is well below the UCB rates.
In fact, when I looked at applicant GPA, the UCI applicant cohort has similar GPA as the UCB cohort.
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Yes, the UIUC reference is in the context of the argument that Santa Clara County schools and prestigious Big 10 schools especially UIUC love each other and reflected in high acceptance rates and high yield, supported by high enrollment. Perhaps there’s similar psychology going on with Irvine and Santa Clara County schools at the other end of the spectrum.
Gotcha… don’t think this is the case though given: a) the large number of applicants at all these schools (~60-70% of graduating class is applying to UCI at these schools), and b) personal knowledge of many high stat kids getting rejected from UCI (and other UCs… it is just incredibly selective at most UCs). The surprise is not so much the low acceptance rates for the SCC schools (that is par for the course at most UCs), but rather the high acceptance rate at similar OC schools. Northwood and Monta Vista are similar in size, both had over 300 applicants for 2022, both are excellent schools with higly-regarded STEM. Monta Vista had an 8% acceptance rate, Northwood 40% (that’s essentially the top 20% of the class accepted if only the top 300 students applied). There are many kids with ELC designation (top 9%) rejected every year at the SCC schools, so there is something else going on here, and regional preference remains a possibility without additional data.
The elephant in the room is that the last UC admissions criterion is “ 13. Location of your secondary school and residence.” Others have routinely stated that UCs do not have a locality preference like CSUs, but have also stated that how UCs weight the 13 criteria is up to each UC. So… is it allowed for a UC to interpret criterion 13 to allow locality preference rather than to use it to balance IS/OOS for budget reasons and to draw from across the state? @Gumbymom, do you have any idea if UCs are allowed to (or do) use the location criterion to favor applicants from specific locales, rather than to ensure diverse representation from across the state/country/world?
True, the number of applications per student has exploded in recent years as UC admission in general can only be viewed as a lottery. FWIW, I think for the high schools under discussion, Irvine is not as attractive an option compared to other higher ranked options that are financially viable for affluent Silicon Valley families even if it means going OOS. Also I am not saying that there is no regional preference for Irvine.