Can someone help determine my chances at UCSC?

Currently, I am a sophomore in High School (soon to be Junior) I would really love to go to UCSC, but I feel like it might be a bit of a stretch for me at this point.

Freshman year I had roughly a 3.8 academic GPA. However, at the start of my Sophomore year, I was dealing with some personal problems which impacted my success in school until about a week ago. My cumulative GPA dropped to around a 3.4 because of my Sophomore year GPA of 2.96.

But I realized I have made a mistake and now I am going to try and do everything in my power because I know next year I can ace nearly all of my classes. I plan on taking AP Environmental Science, AP US History, English 3, Statistics, French 4 honors, newspaper, and yoga (I need pe credits). Now assuming I get an A in every course both semesters, with the exception of French (because it’s so hard), I could possibly shift my UC GPA to around a 3.56 and my cumulative GPA would be around a 3.76. I have yet to take the actual SAT/ACT but I have my prep scores which give me a good idea of what I would get on the actual test. I am also considering taking a semester of AP Bio through UC scout this summer, which I was told could boost my UC GPA around 0.05- 0.1

PSAT- 1250/1600
PACT-26
My Soon To Be Weighted GPA (10-11th grade)- 3.60

For EC’s I have around 55 hours of community service. I am a published writer for a few online newspapers/blogs and am published in our high school paper as well. I am also part of a sport which requires a lot of time commitment (16 or more hours of practice a week). I have been varsity for two years now and I feel the high amount of time I have dedicated to this sport would really stand out to colleges.

I have wanted to go to UCSC for a while now and I really feel like its environment and attitude would suit me perfectly. What are my chances of getting into UCSC and if not Santa Cruz, what about UC Riverside?

UC’s only use 10-11th grades in their GPA calculation so you need Junior year grades to determine your chances. Below is the UC GPA calculator which calculates the UW UC GPA, capped weighted UC GPA which is used by all the UC’s and fully weighted UC GPA used by UCLA and UCB.
https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Here is the UCSC Freshman profile and GPA listed is capped weighted.
https://admissions.ucsc.edu/apply/counselors/high-school-counselors/freshman-student-profile.html

Thanks for the comment. I was wondering more specifically though that if I achieve my target grades Junior year, would I have a decent chance at making it into UCSC? I checked the website and if I pull off A’s Junior year i could have a 46% chance, but I was wondering your personal opinion.

UCSC admissions is just not about GPA. You do not have an SAT/ACT score, your EC’s are good and dedication to your sport is great but unless you want to be recruited for that sport, it is just another EC. Essays are also part of the admissions process and difficult to quantify. No one can guarantee you that even if you are a competitive applicant, you will definitely get accepted. All you can do is your best, apply and hope you are selected. Yes you have a chance if you meet your target GPA but make sure you have several options besides UCSC.

Would UCR or UCM be possible choices? I was thinking originally that I could have a pretty good chance at making it into those other UC’s and possibly Syracuse or University of Arkansas. For safety picks, I would be considering Colorado Boulder or the University of Oregon. How do these sound? (assuming I get 1250 SAT 26 ACT and my target GPA)

youre most likely to get into UCM. I had a 3.45 GPA and didn’t even apply but UCM sent me a Count Me In offer and I got in that way

UCM and UCR are possible. Much depends upon intended major and how competitive the in-coming Freshman class will be for your application year. Apply widely and depending upon your financial situation and if you are a CA resident, consider the Cal states.
2017 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79 (capped weighted) and not major specific:
UCB: 1.8%
UCLA: 2.2%
UCSD: 7.2%
UCSB: 10.1%
UCI: 11.1%
UCD: 16.6%
UCSC: 43.8%
UCR: 63.3%
UCM: 88.7%