Chance for admission at UCLA ,UCB and which are the safety schools

My D is in junior and would like her chance for admission at UCLA and UCB. Her stat:

GPA : 4.0 (unweighed)
GPA: (4.38) (UC capped)

In total she has taken 5 Aps and she will be taking 3 more in senior.

SAT : 1520
SAT : 800 Math II
SAT : ? BIO ( depending on COVID -19 situation)

EC: leadership position at Key club for the past 2 years
member of NHS
played Basketball in middle and high schools (Junior Basketball) for 5 years
Classical (Indian) dancing for 13 years and given performance abroad.
Won several dance competions
Has a job tutoring Math for high school students
Has been teaching classical dance for younger kids
has been volunteering at Hospital for 1 year
has been involved in fundrsaising activities through dance.

If she is not likely to get into UCLA/UCB, then what UC SCHOOLS to be considered as SAFETY SCHOOLS !

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

Moderator’s Note:
Merged Threads
ED

Here are some historical (for fall 2019 entry) UC admission rates by HS GPA:
http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/university-california-general/2174563-2019-uc-freshman-admit-rates-updated.html

Note: HS GPA there is the weighted-capped version, and the admission rates may vary by major or division at any given campus.

UCR/UCM and UCSC could be considered safety school’s but it will depend upon her intended major.

Your local Cal State would be definitely a safety school unless she is planning on pursuing CS at Cal Poly SLO.

Her intended major is bio,

Biology is an impacted/selective/capped major at many of the campuses but not as difficult of an admit as Computer Science/Engineering.

UC’s tend to be very unpredictable but I would still stand by my safety school list of Merced, Riverside and Santa Cruz.

She is a very competitive applicant but there are no guarantees. She should definitely apply widely through the UC and CSU systems.

with that gpa, your daughter should get top 9% ELC - eligibility by local context, meaning she should be guaranteed to a UC, it can be any UC though so not your daughter’s top choices, but it means you have one safety. I know kids with your daughter’s profile, and they typically get into all UCs but UCB and UCLA, which they usually split. So accepted at UCB and rejected at UCLA say, and admit to UCSD, UCSB, UCD etc.

@Gumbymom @ucbalumnus would know more

Thanks, How does that 9% ELC works? is it a default or do we have to claim our eligibility in the application?

ELC eligibility only guarantees UC Merced (which is the current default campus) if room is available.

Below is UC statistical admission data for 2019 and not major specific so intended major can have an impact on her chances. Competitive majors like CS/Engineering can have below 10% acceptance rates.

UC’s tend to be very GPA focused but her overall application will be considered including the personal insight essays, special talents, overcoming hardship, EC’s etc…

Each campus will evaluate an applicant based on 14 areas of criteria, but they are also looking for students that “fit” their school.

https://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/counselors/freshman/comprehensive-review/

What would she like to study and what are her career goals?

UCLA/UCB should be considered Reach schools regardless of qualifications. Your D is competitive but there are no guarantees when it comes to the UC’s. Apply widely and if you are a CA resident consider some Cal states also as target and safety schools.

2019 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 38%
UCLA: 35%
UCSD: 71%
UCSB: 73%
UCD: 84%
UCI: 55%
UCSC: 85%
UCR: 97%
UCM: 98%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCB: 1340-1540

UCLA: 1330-1550
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1280-1520
UCD: 1230-1490
UCI: 1250-1510
UCSC: 1200-1450
UCR: 1130-1400
UCM: 1020-1290

Thank you very much sharing UC statistical admission data. It looks pretty competitive.
My D is interested in Bio major and wants to pursue her carrier in life science.
Her current GPA : 4.0 UW
4.38 UC Capped
SAT : 1520 (730 R+790 M)

Now there is one more question.
Since her SAT score is 1520 and it is in the middle 50% of the accepted sutudents at most of the T20 schools, does she need to take SAT again to push her score close to 75%. Now she may not be able to take SAT again because of COVID-19 situation.
Other part of her appliaction looks good, I guess. 4.0 UW GPA, 4.4 W GPA and good ECs some awards within and outside school. Her school doesn’t rank and she doesn’t have any hook.

What is your advise on retaking SAT, if it is available?

If your UC-recalculated GPA is higher than the top 9% threshold UC-recalculated GPA from a recent previous class at your high school, then you get ELC status. Because it depends on UC-recalculated GPA and comparison to a previous class, it may not correlate exactly to your high school’s calculation of class rank.

As a practical matter, ELC means that if UC Merced has space, it will offer admission to applicants who are shut out of all other UCs that they applied to.

@ucbalumnus thanks for sharing the information with regards to ELC status

Now there is one more question.
Since her SAT score is 1520 and it is in the middle 50% of the accepted sutudents at most of the T20 schools, does she need to take SAT again to push her score close to 75%. Now she may not be able to take SAT again because of COVID-19 situation.
Other part of her appliaction looks good, I guess. 4.0 UW GPA, 4.4 W GPA and good ECs some awards within and outside school. Her school doesn’t rank and she doesn’t have any hook.
What is your advise on retaking SAT, if it is available?