This is my longest shot school. I’m applying first choice to the college of computer science and second choice to the college of information systems.
-34 ACT
-3.85 uw gpa (9th-11th grade with 5 APs, I’m taking 4 more my senior year so 9 total)
-varsity field hockey and track 4 years
-3 years co-president, co-founder, and teacher: coding club
-2 summers of kode with klossy (scholarship-based girl’s coding camp)
NHS (60ish hours of community service)
-built by girls WAVE mentorship program 2 years: worked on AI and ML projects with women from amazon and google brain
-2 years of the same summer job at a café
-several art awards, painted a mural for my school
-2 years national honorable mention for le grand concours french exam
-college board AP scholar award
Haven’t started the school specific essays yet but my rec letter is from my AP chem teacher and I think it shows what a hard, diligent worker I am, and my common app essay is about how my art style has evolved and my struggle with my identity as an artist who also loves STEM.
CMU’s CS admissions rate is worse than Harvard. It’s impossible to give you odds, except that you’re as competitive as any other candidate. With a 97% decline rate, it’s not saying much. Good luck 
SCS has a 5% accept rate, ACT average of 35, GPA average of 3.96.
IS has a 6% acceptance rate, ACT average of 34, GPA average of 3.84.
SCS is a long-shot for everyone, and more so with below their average admitted metrics.
You IS metrics match their average, which means you’re in the mix. What this means is that, after they’ve put aside those who clearly don’t meet the metric expectations, they probably accept less than 20% of those remaining. So it’s still a long shot for everyone. (I don’t know the actual numbers, but probably something like this).
Having said that, a few hundred students do get in, and there are always those with compelling stories with below average metrics that are admitted. There isn’t a true “yes/no” metrics bar, just signifiicant correlations.
Pretty much any student, excepting IMO Gold Medalists, etc., should consider it a long shot. That shouldn’t stop anyone from pursuing what they want and applying.