Look at the Common Data Sets for the respective schools that you are interested in applying to. Part C7 tells you what factors are considered in the admissions decision, and it also tells you how those admissions factors are weighted (relatively) by each school. For example, UNC-CH’s CDS states that standardized test scores, application essay(s), letter(s) of recommendation, and the rigor of your high school record are “very important” academic factors considered for freshman admission, whereas GPA and class rank are “important” academic factors considered for freshman admission. Extracurricular activities, talent, and character/personal qualities are considered as “very important” non-academic factors. But, different schools will weigh those factors differently.
Further, Part C9 of the Common Data Set gives the median 50% for both SAT and ACT scores, as well as the percentage of the entering first-year class falling within certain ranges of SAT and ACT scores; Part C11 gives the percentage of entering first-year students falling within a range of unweighted GPA on a 4.0 scale, and Part C12 gives the average high school GPA of first-year applicants. Looking at these statistics for the enrolled students should give you a rough idea of how your GPA and standardized test scores compare.
Based on your current information, I think that Duke is going to be problematic, as is Johns Hopkins; probably Northwestern also. You will probably be very competitive for UNC-CH, but be mindful of both the academic and non-academic admissions factors that UNC-CH considers “very important” and “important”. Also, there seems to be a paucity of leadership roles in your ECs – you are a “general member” in lots of them – so that may be something to consider as you roll into your senior year.
Also, be aware (if you are not already) that the UNC System is making an effort to increase enrollment of North Carolina students from under-represented and/or economically distressed counties, as set forth in a document styled “Higher Expectations”: The Strategic Plan for the University of North Carolina (2017-2022). At Page 9 in that document, it states as follows:
“2. Rural: By fall 2021, increase enrollment of students from Tier 1 and Tier 2 counties by 11% over fall 2016 levels (an average of 2% per year) to reduce the existing participation gap by at least half.”
(Counties are placed in “tiers” as follows: “The N.C. Department of Commerce annually ranks the state’s 100 counties based on economic well-being and assigns each a Tier designation. The 40 most distressed counties are designated as Tier 1, the next 40 as Tier 2 and the 20 least distressed as Tier 3. A county automatically qualifies as Tier 1 if it has a population less than 12,000 people or if it has a population less than 50,000 and a poverty rate of 19 percent or greater. A county automatically qualifies as Tier 2 if it has a population less than 50,000.”)
https://www.northcarolina.edu/sites/default/files/unc_strategic_plan.pdf
So, living in Wake County could potentially be a detriment in this regard to your chances, due to the implementation of this policy.
In terms of general advice, notwithstanding that you have several impressive “reach” schools on your list, be sure to have some “match” and “safety” schools that you apply to as well. If you haven’t already, start talking to your high school’s guidance counselor (and get your parents involved in that conversation as well); you should talk about what schools would be appropriate as “match” and “safety” schools on your applications list, as well as application strategies for your “reach” schools. If any former students from your school have been admitted to your reach schools recently, the guidance counselor may be able to give some insight into how and why such student(s) were successful with their applications. Also, I don’t know whether your high school has Naviance or any similar program that gives information about how students at your high school have done in applying to colleges and universities; if so, you might peruse that data.
Finally, don’t get your heart set on getting into any one school, or defining your concept of self-worth by where you are admitted to college. (And don’t let your parents do that, either.) Getting admitted to the “best” school is not as important as getting into the school that is best for you – which is, in the end, what it’s all about.
