Chance me on these universities?

I’m a junior and I’ve recently begun to look at universities. Some that I’m currently interested are
University of Virginia
University of Rochester
Brandeis University
University of Southern California
I am prepared to accept that most or all universities I’m currently looking into are reaches, but I’d like to get a realistic idea of what my chances are at these schools.
GPA: 3.51 UW 3.91 W (probably be a 3.56, 4.01 after this trimester)
Class Rank: 44/317
ACT: 33 (31 E 32 R 34 S 36 M) retaking in june, hoping for a 34
Honors/college courses: Honors Spanish III, Honors Precalc, AP Euro, AP Lang, AP Calc BC (all sophomore year), Linear Algebra/DE course over summer, and taking AP Chem, AP Physics C (M), AP Lit, Calculus III, Partial Differential Equations, Intro to Higher Mathematics this year.
Activities/EC’s: Marching Band (10th grade-present), Pep Band (10th grade - present), Fencing (8th grade - present), Math Team (joined this year)
Academic team (joined this year)
Projected AP/college courses for senior year: APUSH (all year), Fall Semester: Linear Algebra, Geometry, Real Variables I Spring Semester: Real Variables II, Elementary Theory of Numbers and Complex Variables(this may not be offered, in which case I’d probably take an introductory calc bases prob and stats)

Are you IN Virginia? If so, if my sources are reliable, you have next to no shot. I’m told (and those telling me this could be wrong) that Virginia is courting OOS students to boost income.

All of the other schools on your list are reaches. The saving grace is that ACT of yours. 33 is great, and I’m not sure a 34 would help you too much…it’s mostly that lowish GPA of yours that sticks out. However, you are taking some hard classes, so that’s good.

Just went through the Brandeis accepted thread, and the lowest GPA I saw was 3.7, so unless you can creep that up to about that level by mid-year of your senior year, I would guess you would be denied there…

Rochester and USC are perhaps a little easier, but still, they reject people with ~3.5 GPA frequently.

All are definitely reaches, but that ACT score just might get you in to one or more, but if I had to bet, I would say denial to all of them. Keep doing all you can to raise that GPA.

I live in kentucky
I was hoping some of the rigor (especially in mathematics) would help compensate for a below average gpa

All of those are reaches for you. Probably, at most, only one of them will accept you (my bet would be on U.Rochester).

Now make a list of schools that are a better match for you, plus at least one true safety. For a safety, why not start with University of Alabama which will give you a full tuition scholarship (even with your somewhat low GPA). Another one might be Miami University in Ohio.
http://scholarships.ua.edu/types/out-of-state.html
http://miamioh.edu/admission/merit-grid/index.html

For a match, take a look at Tulane plus Case Western Reserve (which is very similar to U.Rochester and has excellent financial aid).

I recommend applying to between 7 and 10 colleges. You will be surprised how quickly your options narrow down to just two or three.

@stepay: I suspect your sources may be misinformed. While UVa likely is admitting a few more full-tuition-paying out-of-state applicants, it it still considerably more difficult for non-Virginians to be admitted than for citizen of the Commonwealth (in fact, this topic has recently received some scrutiny in the legislature and I suspect in-state admissions prioritization in an unchangeable fact-of-life).

@toptier - I suspect you may be correct. I haven’t investigated because I’m not THAT interested. Definitely appreciate the opposing view.

University of Virginia: high reach
University of Rochester: not sure
Brandeis University: reach
University of Southern California: reach

GPA is your prime weakness. Try to find relatively easier schools.
How much can you pay? What do you want to study?

Eh, I was reasonably sure they’d mostly be reaches anyway.
My parents can’t contribute anything to my college fund, so I’ll have to rely on aid.
I am going to major in mathematics once I get to college