Chance me please?

Going into senior year. Asian, female, middle class, NJ resident

Standardized Tests:
SAT: 2400 Superscore
SAT II: 790 Math II, 760 USH, 770 Chem

GPA:
UW: 3.86
W: ~4.44

APs:
Sophomore year: USH, Micro, Macro, Mandarin (All 5s)
Junior year: World (4), Calc BC (4), Chem (4), Stat (5), Language Comp (5)
Next year: Physics I, Lit comp, GovPol, maybe bio but prob not

Extracurriculars:
-4 years on the debate team, serving as team captain next year. This is where the bulk of my extracurriculars are; I did really well this year and qualified/competed at two of three national tournaments this year and got an Academic all american award as well. I spend at least 90 hours a month on it.
-3 years on the community service tutoring group, serving as leader for two years
-I write for the school newspaper regularly
-I’ve played piano for 9 years and have been in the school orchestra for 2 years
-Should be national merit semifinalist, but obviously not sure yet

Hopeful major: Bio (pre-med track) or economics

Colleges: Johns Hopkins, Duke, Cornell, Northwestern, Claremont McKenna, Washington St. Louis, Princeton, Georgetown, Columbia, UNC, UMich, Case Western, Georgetown, Rutgers (obviously this list still needs to be narrowed down)

I also have a couple questions:
-Could you sort those into what you guys think are safeties, matches, and reaches? I have a general idea but I wanted another opinion
-Hopkins is my top choice as of now, but I’m not sure if I’m entirely ready to commit to it. What are my chances to get in without ED?
-Are there other colleges that I should be looking at? Are there any that I flat out should not be looking at? Do I have enough safeties?
-I’m worried that my extracurriculars don’t match up with my interests. I’ve invested a huge amount of hours into debate, but I want to go into medicine. Does the fact that they don’t line up hurt me?
-Along those lines, should I focus my essay on debate? It’s what I’m most passionate about, but it doesn’t line up with my intended major. Also, I’ve had a lot of issues in debate I’ve had to overcome: a lot of my partners have quit because the time commitment was too much, or switched partners to one of their friends. I thought this might be something I could write about, but I’m worried it makes me seem like I’m not good at working with others, which isn’t how I want it to come across in an essay.
-I’m also worried about summers. I’ve been going to debate camp for the past two years, so I don’t have an internship or a job (I’m trying to find one). Is the fact that I don’t have many summer activities going to hurt me a lot?
-How much do recommendations matter? One of the teachers I asked for a rec was a bit of a last resort ask- he’s one of those “write your own rec” teachers, so I’m not sure how good it’ll turn out.

Sorry for the incredibly long post! Thanks so much guys!

Honestly, I’d say you have a shot at every single college that you’re planning to apply to. That 2,400 superscore will definitely make you stand out.

On the other hand, with highly selective universities, it’s hard to predict what factors actually lead to admission. It’s not always academics. That said, your EC’s are good (not stellar, but one standard deviation above average), meaning that you’ll get some more help there.

Write a killer essay, and you’ll almost be guaranteed a spot at several of these top colleges. Good luck!

Princeton/Columbia/Cornell: reach. They are Ivy league.
JHU/WUSTL: High match
Case western and Rutgers: low match, but virtually safety.
UNC/UMich: low~mid reach if OOS, Match if in state.
Georgetown: ?
Duke/Northwestern: Low reach.

Which state are you in? How much can you pay per year? What are your safeties?
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I’m in New Jersey. My safeties were actually Rutgers (since I’m in state) and case western. I’m upper middle class so the tuition isn’t a huge issue.

Didn’t see you were in state for NJ. As long as you are content with going to your safeties, I think you are all set.

@paul2752 Cornell is an Ivy and Stanford isn’t. Does that imply that Cornell is a reach while Stanford is a low reach?

The Ivy League is an athletic conference. Duke is more selective than Cornell. Surely you knew that.

I dont think applicant ever asked about stanford???

Plus I serioulsy doubt 9% acceptance rate makes Duke “harder” to get into than Cornell (14%)is. I saw a number of very smart but not Ivy level kids going to Duke. Acceptance rate is a pretty good but not 100% accurate indicator of how hard to get into.