“I think I would have a reasonable chance of getting into Penn (especially with ED), yet I like Princeton the most, and am fearful that if I should apply and get accepted to Penn ED, then I will also get into Princeton regular and be regretful that I am going to Penn over Princeton.”
First, be careful with your expectations. Both are very reachy schools.
Also, if you are admitted to Penn ED you can’t apply to Princeton at all, and if you have submitted your app prior to the ED decision, you are required to withdraw it.
I also agree that neither UVA nor Michigan are safeties for OOS students, and I have no attachment to either school whatsoever.