Chance of acceptance after being rejected once?

My friend is a student at community college in San Diego and graduated with his AA last Spring. He applied for SDSU as a transfer the Fall before and was rejected because of a missed deadline. Then his appeal was rejected. He just applied again this Fall for next year. What are the chances he’ll be accepted this year?
His major is TV, Film and New Media with concentration in Production. And GPA is about 3.5 which is above the required for transfer students.

Your prior application isn’t held against you - so, if being late was the reason for his denial, his qualifications will be objectively weighed against other applicants. A 3.5 may, or may not do the trick. Encourage your friend to apply to another school or 2…