Sent you a PM
As noted, this is simply untrue. The very article you linked to specifically says
The rapid waning of antibodies did not necessarily have implications for the efficacy of vaccine candidates currently in clinical trials, Imperial’s Barclay said.
“A good vaccine may well be better than natural immunity,” she said.
If you’re looking for extensive studies on a drug that has just been developed from someone other than the drug developer, I suspect you’re always going to have a difficult time.
You can choose to believe Modena’s statement that “We believe there will be protection potentially for a couple of years” or not, but I suggest not making statements based on zero relevant data.
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Purdue has decided to have only on-campus residential for the fall, but is currently planning for the spectrum of in-person, hybrid, and on-line courses. So staying at home and studying on-line won’t be an option.
I suspect that any bias toward the current on-line majority or the traditional in-person majority of classes will be decided over the summer.
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I’m here in CA and my S21 will be starting school in the fall most likely at one of the CSU’s. I am like 50/50 at this point…I really think the likelihood of the CSU’s and UC’s being full on campus is slim. I see more of a hybrid situation with some labs and classes being in person, but many still being online. I see maybe some students on campus, but living as mentioned above…masks and not much socializing. My son won’t go if things are that way…just not worth the cost. So we are watching closely…if he has to do fall 2021 from home, we are ok with that. He has spent his entire senior year that way, and does fine with online learning. I can see it taking until next spring before the vaccine has been widely distributed and the numbers to be much lower where the state colleges will feel more comfortable with larger in person classes.
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Just curious, which are the groups that you hear are medically unable to get the vaccine? I’ve tried to pay attention, and I see close to zero people unable…even people with strong allergies seem to be recommended to get the vaccine, just under medical supervision. Even people with immune disorders seem eligible; even often prioritized. There was early discussion about pregnant people, but I think they are eligible. Even people on chemo are prioritized. I’m just not seeing any (and certainly not sizable) groups that are excluded other than those under 16. Are there actually sizable groups (greater than 1% of the population) that are ineligible for the vaccine, besides kids? That definitely makes a difference!
Those with allergies to components in the vaccine, although some such people may be allergic to components one company’s vaccine that are not in another company’s vaccine (similar to flu vaccines, where people with egg allergies can now ask for non-egg flu vaccines).
People with a history of allergies seem to be recommended to be extra careful with staying under observation for a while after getting a vaccine.
There was one death after getting a vaccine due to platelets going to zero (under investigation, so uncertain whether vaccine-related or coincidental) which has caused one poster with low platelets to be hesitant about getting a vaccine. Actual COVID-19 is also associated with platelet count drop.
The populations of those medically unable to get any COVID-19 vaccine are probably very small, but such people may have difficulty if, after general vaccine availability, everyone wants to go back to normal, but there are many people who choose not to get the vaccine and prevent herd immunity that would protect them (like herd immunity from high vaccination rates protects those medically unable to get vaccines for other infections diseases).
Yes, I think I agree that at most there are relatively minuscule numbers of people medically unable to get the vaccine at this point. My daughter has an epipen for severe allergies, but all my research indicates she should go ahead, but under extra medical supervision. The numbers of people with severe allergies specifically to the components of the vaccine must be truly tiny as a percent of the population.
If these groups are all well under 1% as it appears to be the case (perhaps a percent of one percent?), then of course the world will not stop for that…I myself had over 12 months of chemotherapy, leading me to be very vulnerable to very commonplace infections, but I would never dream that the whole world should mask and social distance for my benefit…I knew that meant that I needed to be careful. Who on earth would be so selfish as to think that the whole world should make drastic life changes for them, given that it’s easy enough for people who feel vulnerable to wear N95s and keep their own distance, etc. I think we are very lucky that it appears that basically pretty close to everyone is in fact medically eligible for the vaccines so far (hopefully assuming kids end up eligible). I just can’t figure out if I’m missing something here, but it really doesn’t seem like there are people who are excluded from the vaccine other than kids (plus people with allergies cautioned to take it under medical supervision). Although I am all in favor of having us reach herd immunity through massive choices to vaccinate. I’m very irritated by vaccine hesitancy!! But I don’t think there’s much to this notion of people being medically unable to vaccinate in this particular case.
ASU sent out a message to the faculty from the Provost to expect most classes to be in person in the fall - and they are huge!
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That’s encouraging! Harvard’s dean of students did an interview indicating they expect it will be back to ~90% normal in the fall but still conditional based on what happens with the variant (and vaccinations, although I think the vaccination part is pretty predictably rosy by fall; the variant seems less predictable). She didn’t lay out what the 90% meant (what restrictions would remain), so I’m guessing possibly still masks in classes, but at least classes in person, activities back in person, dining halls open, sports with spectators, etc. The 10% I’m picturing could mean masks in certain more formal situations such as classes, possibly some amount of capacity constraints, but probably much higher than current constraints, like perhaps max 75% capacity in some locations, I can imagine a desire to not have overcrowding. It is curious to think what elements of our restrictions will be the last to go as things improve.
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So what’s up with the colleges that are saying that fall might not be that much different than spring?
How much do we think it’s marketing by the schools that are saying they’ll have a way better experience this fall?
The timing isn’t great on this for the current high school seniors. Seems like more vaccines will be available (for all?) by April but that leaves very little time before May 1 for colleges to determine a plan and how are the 2021s supposed to regard those plans?
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High school seniors should watch the news on vaccine availability and virus variants. If vaccines are readily available to all and are still effective against the new variants, then the likelihood of “normal” college is high. Otherwise, expect limitations and restrictions in the fall term.
Right now, most are expecting vaccines to be readily available to all in the US by early summer or earlier, though there is always uncertainty about the future. Although there is still concern about reduced vaccine effectiveness against B.1.351, the J&J vaccine trial in the RSA found high effectiveness against cases needing hospitalization, and the RSA will give it to health care workers (instead of the AstraZeneca vaccine).
RSA = Republic of South Africa
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Were it not for the variants, I think that schools would be able to be mostly back to normal by September. Unfortunately, it’s now clear that the virus’s spike protein DOES mutate to evade immunity, whether from prior infection or immunization. Already, in the UK and in Israel, the UK variant predominates, and S. African and Brazil variants are dominating in those countries. I’m hoping that Pfizer and Moderna and the other immunization manufactureres are designing the next generation of vaccine, but I’m afraid that it’s going to be like the flu shot, always chasing a moving target. There is at least one manufacturer that is working on a vaccine that would target several different sites on the spike protein, and other possible targets, in the hope of making a vaccine that the virus cannot evade.
All of which means that right now, there is no way of predicting whether or not colleges will be able to return to normal by next semester.
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You have multiple variants spreading that potentially accelerate quickly, potential future variants, relaxing restrictions, people traveling, anti-vaxxers and maskers, more schools opening, but increased coordination, funding, vaccinations, and warmer weather coming. I don’t know how it could get much harder to figure out what’s going to happen in the fall. I also am hopeful but not convinced that the vaccine supplies ordered will arrive as scheduled.
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I think we learned from last year that fall announced plans are subject to change, right up until the quarantine period for out of state students. It really is a difficult situation and I wonder if more kids will stay closer to home this year. I also wonder what the gap policies will look like at more selective schools.
If 7 year olds can wear masks to class, I think college students should be able to continue wearing them in the fall.
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I agree that fall will probably not be back to full in person classes at UC’s and CSU’s. I’m so glad to hear that online has worked well for your son… at our house, D21 is so sick of being at home, does not like the online learning via video, finds it really really hard to learn technical topics via the video instruction. Teachers have totally stopped teaching - the only thing she gets is to watch videos. So she is very much wanting to find a place where in person is going to happen. I think we are going to have to go out of state for that.
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It’s not about wearing masks. It’s about freshmen in particular being able to be in groups to meet new friends and to take advantage of everything a college has to offer.
Gotta say- this variant issue is confusing and I just cannot believe that it means we will keep doing college like this year. I have to believe that colleges are going to be desperate to get back to normal. If there are vaccines to be had and cases are low this summer, I see zero reason why we are still doing Covid college.
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May I ask, the name of the vaccine that your speaking of?
I think whether school in the fall is back to normal will depend on the school and area of the country it is located. I agree with @homerdog that it would seem like we should be able to have enough people vaccinated (Fauci said vaccine would be open to everyone in April) come fall.
I guess one issue is what happens if the current vaccines aren’t effective on the African variant? We hope that it doesn’t become dominant and quickly get out a booster. The longer we take to vaccinate the world (not just US), the more time the virus has to mutate and spread. But, do we live like this forever?
What’s interesting is why some schools are already predicting that campus won’t be “normal” come fall. Our S21 is committed to Duke and they said we expect masks, probably singles again, maybe some more f2f … in their first ED presentation. In the second webinar, with the office that deals with students/families, they sounded a little more optimistic, mentioned they don’t know what fall will look like yet, but they also don’t have in person orientation (or anything) planned at this point.
I think big state schools in Texas, Arizona, Florida and anywhere else where the governor hasn’t had everything shut down this whole time are the best bet for the most normal experience. And if some place like Harvard came out and said it’s looking good for business as usual come fall, I’d hope other privates would follow suit.
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Article on the subject, including the B.1.351 variant in the RSA:
If the vaccines are effective against other variants, but not B.1.351, then B.1.351 will quickly become the dominant variant due to selective pressure.
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