NJ had some of the best mask compliance, and toughest rules in the nation. The state still ranks poorly in new covid cases daily.
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Most states have little control over imported cases (in most states, quarantine restrictions for incoming people are or would be difficult to enforce, if there is any attempt at doing so), even if everyone in the state takes strict measures to stop transmission. Only a united effort nationwide could have been successful like in New Zealand, but the US was not united enough for that to happen.
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@roycroftmom sadly “best mask compliance” and “toughest rules” means very little if a huge percentage of people in NJ don’t believe the rules should apply to them.
New Zealand is a poor comparison: they’re an island of 5 million people that closed their borders to everyone including their own citizens. It had little to do with being united.
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NJ is the densest state by far in the nation (Rhode Island comes close but it’s tiny), so direct comparison with any other state isn’t straightforward.
For things to return back to more normal, our goal should be covid management not eradication. Eradication may take decades to achieve, if ever. Managing the outbreak level so that it can be reasonably handled by doctors and hospitals (and yes, some people will still die despite medical intervention, just like they continue to die from other viruses every year) is an achievable goal for schools returning to normal.
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New Zealand was united in that all of the country locked down together to stamp out the virus initially. They did not have each region try to do its own thing in an unsynchronized manner that would have resulted in some being virus reservoirs that would have easily reinfected the strict lockdown regions once the latter reduced the strictness. In contrast, US states and localities did their own things, so that the virus always had some place to hide and could never be eradicated, so that there was no way to go back to normal (before general vaccine availability).
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Strong measures do work. Just take a look at the measures taken by the state of Victoria in Australia. The stringent measures stamped out a major outbreak in its capital city of Melbourne.
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Yeah, this used to make sense to me. But really it seems the only way out for a large country like ours was going to be through vaccine. I am full card-carrying member of the mask brigade, but I still think even if we had done a vastly better job earlier on, we would not have eradicated the virus on our very populous continent with people coming in over borders, etc. Much more complicated than New Zealand. So we could have tamped it down and had less sickness/death, but I don’t think it would have led to being able to ultimately get rid of restrictions; once restrictions were let up, we’d get spread again. I really think our only path to freedom is from vaccines. For sure, we should all be wearing masks to minimize transmission until we get there, but I think getting vaccinated is really the only solution and I have no time for people who are hesitant to get the vaccine. There are precious few if any who are medically unable to get this vaccine (people with allergies can get it under higher level medical supervision). Of course those precious few will be better protected the more other people get vaccinated, and we will get to a very low rate of transmission once we get a majority of people vaccinated, so the risk to the unvaccinated will be quite low, and really their freedom doesn’t need to be reduced as the ability to wear an N95 mask makes it quite safe for people to go out into the world (especially as the overall number of cases diminishes). I have a hard time thinking there is a person alive who would want to see the rest of the world social distancing, not having gatherings, etc for their sake when they are able to strongly protect themselves by wearing a high quality mask. So while I have spent a year doing everything for the sake of the vulnerable (no family gatherings at holidays, no trips, no indoor gatherings, a million other sacrifices–all cheerfully done for the sake of the elderly/unwell), once vaccinations are available to all, I do not see any logical reason for people to deny themselves the social opportunities they crave, knowing that they’ve done their part to improve safety for all by getting vaccinated. And I hope that for the sake of those going to school, they are allowed to socialize freely once everyone has had a chance to get vaccinated, so I am praying for normal school for all in the fall.
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It’s a global pandemic, so strong measures have to be taken globally and simultaneously, and cross-border traffic has to be severely restricted. Half-measures don’t work, as we’ve found out.
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CT too.
Realistically, there probably won’t be much COVID-19 management, if you mean adding social distancing restrictions etc. if there is an outbreak.
However, vaccine availability to everyone will be a big game changer in that it mostly converts COVID-19 risk from an involuntary risk imposed on you to a voluntary risk that you take (if you choose not to get the vaccine), similar to vaccines for other highly contagious diseases like measles. Outbreaks will predominantly occur among the voluntary vaccine refusers, but that will be due to their own choices, and the vaccinated will mostly avoid the problems. School can (and probably will) go back to normal under these conditions, since everyone is clamoring for a return to pre-COVID-19 normality (it is just that some people are willing to wait for vaccine, while others cannot wait).
Those who are medically unable to get any of the vaccines (probably a very small number) will be in a tougher spot if they want to avoid COVID-19, since the number of vaccine refusers will prevent the herd immunity that could otherwise protect them. It is unlikely that others will agree to continue restrictions to protect them, and vaccine refusers probably overlap significantly with those who disobey current restrictions anyway. About the best they can do is wear PPE when near other people and choose schools and locations where the demographics suggest lower rates of vaccine refusal (or choose schools that require all students, faculty, and staff to get vaccinated if not medically contraindicated, though that still does not solve the problem of virus in the surrounding community).
Of course, what could throw everything off is if a variant shows up that evades the vaccines (and probably immunity from previous natural infection). Such a variant will quickly become dominant if it gets into the population, since the vaccines will have stopped other variants.
That wasnt what I meant by management. I meant monitoring outbreaks so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed with serious complications and ICU beds remain available. So outbreaks in schoolkids, while unfortunate, merit little response, while those in nursing homes merit major responses, as those patients are likely to require hospitalization. Spread is minimized somwhat by good hygiene and masks, but we accept some spread as inevitable and resume most interactions.
Some colleges do this right now.
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Do you mean that if hospital capacity is overwhelmed, voluntary vaccine refusers in nursing homes etc. who get severe COVID-19 will be deprioritized for hospital beds in favor of those who did get the vaccine but were in the unlucky 5% or whatever or those who were medically unable to get any of the vaccines?
Those refusing vaccines in nursing homes almost always have DNR orders. They arent taken to the hospital.
Back to our school topic, I expect more places will adopt UNC’s approach. Student outbreaks happen, vulnerable profs can be protected thru vaccine and/or remote, and life goes on.
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That will work once everyone who wants a vaccine can get it (meaning that COVID-19 risk is voluntary). However, before vaccine general availability (and we are not even at full availability to vulnerable populations), COVID-19 risk is an involuntary one that is much less under your personal control. Without vaccines, protecting the vulnerable while letting everyone else go back to normal and spreading the virus will not work, because the vulnerable are inevitably in contact with others like family, health care workers, etc… Plus, not all of the everyone else wants to play COVID-19 lottery either, due to the significant possibility of longer term effects and disabilities.
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Yes, exactly, COVID-19 management not eradication, then move back to normal once few cases/low spread, and the head of the FDA and many others agree with you. There is more and more data that the cases plus %vaccinated will be high enough to keep spread low once summer comes. I try to keep my MD hat off on these boards but I have been testing for and diagnosing COVID for 11months now and I am tired of all the misinformation all over the place. Those who do not comprehend that YES your kid’s slight congestion and sore throat might very well be Covid (so we have to test, and look he is positive, so yes he has to quarantine etc, because Covid DOES kill older adults quite effectively) and YES the schools that have been in person with mitigation measures have had very good data(almost NO spread in school), here in the US and all across the world(where they use masks and 1.5 meters (4.5 not 6ft). OF course we can get back to normal. of course that does not require eradication. This is not the first time we have faced a fast spreading virus and the vaccine was the key to a return to normal (ie polio).
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@2Devils Refreshing post based on facts not fear and well balanced. Thank you.
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We just ran into a friend who is a hospitalist doc. They are keeping their kid close to home. I’m curious if others are leaning that way at this point. It’s getting uncomfortably close to May 1. Lately I’ve read completely conflicting predictions about the virus variants.
For us, the college decision will come down to what S likes best, how the strong the programs are at each school, cost, and whether it is likely the classes will be in person. Of course, all of my S’s schools are 2-3 hours away by plane. I don’t want my S to get sick, with COVID or any other illness, and will worry if that happens, but COVID will not be the reason to choose a school closer to home for us.
Ask me in a year, maybe my view will change.
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