Chances at UVA, class of 2024?

I know it’s quite a read, but I’m incredibly desperate. Any input is greatly appreciated.
I will be a rising junior next year and attend a high school in northern Virginia. As I’ve begun to look into colleges, my heart has become set on UVA. However, I’m increasingly despairing about my chances, given its highly competitive admissions.
I won’t bother sugarcoating it. I messed up TERRIBLY my freshman and sophomore year. I’ve taken the most rigorous classes offered, however, I trashed them. At the moment, I’ve accumulated 2 C’s and 2 C+'s, 2 of which are in math classes.
There are numerous factors which caused this, most of all my struggle with severe clinical depression (which also contributed to a very poor attendance record).
This academic underperformance nearly broke me. I’d began my high school career as ambitious of an overacheiver as any other NOVA student. I won’t get into the details of the inner turmoil of a perfectionist’s shattered ego or the subsequent soul-searching, but it’s been exhaustive.
I’ve gradually found the resolve within myself to come back from this. I’m well aware that my potential as a student is largely untapped, and I’m determined to prove it.
As of now, I’m signed up for 6 APs next year and have begun extensive summer prep and effort dedicated to succeeding in my coursework next year and demonstrate a strong upwards trend.
Currently, my extracurriculars include debate, robotics, MUN, orchestra, and a few other small clubs. In addition, I’ve spent this summer interning on a political campaign. I have a solid shot at procuring leadership in a few of these EC’s next year, including debate and MUN. Both the teams I participate on have had thus far strong performance and I intend to extend this achievement to the greatest possible heights, hopefully, some awards at state and national levels.
Although I have not taken any standardized tests yet, I’m quite motivated to performing exceptionally well on them in order to, in some sense, compensate for my abysmal transcript. I’m aiming to score a 1500+ on SAT, 700+ on subjects, 33+ on ACT, and primarily 5’s on AP exams.
That being said, if I achieve straight A’s in my classes next year, my GPA will fall around a weighted 4.0, unweighted 3.5.
I also consider myself a very strong writer and intend to turn my hardships into the most exceptional essays I can.
Additionally, I’m a prospective finance major, which I know is very unfavourable given my performance in math. However, I’m doubling on math APs next year, and am fairly confident I can achieve an 800 on the Math Level 2.

Taking this whole mess into account holistically, how would you gauge my chances? Am I totally hopeless?

A large part of your post was roughly: “I did really poorly my first two years, but I know I’ll perform at the top of my class next year.” I’m not saying you won’t, but there is really no way to know. One of the problems with setting overly optimistic goals, like you do, is the risk that if you do not start out the year meeting or exceeding them, then it is possible depression or self doubt return and create a self-perpetuating cycle that leads to a third year like the first two.

With regards to finance, finance is part of the McIntire School of Commerce, which you apply competitively to your fourth semester. The Comm School (as it is called) does consider your SAT/ACT score as part of its “holistic review,” but it is a minor thing (your college grades will be the highest importance) and nothing else from high school will matter.

In the case you do get in, your doubling up on AP math will help, because Calculus and Stats are both weed out courses for McIntire, so if you get AP credit for them it makes it easier to get into finance.

Your next two years sound promising, and your in-state advantage will definitely help. That being said, however, the four blemishes on your transcript will be hard to miss. Essays are extremely important, as are teacher recommendations. As you are going into you junior year, it is imperative that you build strong relationships with some of them to ensure the best rec possible. With standardized testing, the more you practice the better you get. To be frank, the hardest thing about your application will be getting them to look past your bad grades. A 3.5 unweighted is rather low, especially compared to your peers in northern va, yet you seem to be extremely hard working so make sure that that shows in your essays. Best of luck!

3.5 GPA UW, 4.0 W, 1500 is your best case scenario. 1500 is a bit lofty, make sure you prep correctly. Start untiming yourself and study the questions you miss. If you can consistently hit 1500-1550 on practice then you have a shot.

Lets also hope you have other strong ECs to compensate for low GPA.

Other then that its a crap shoot, you have a chance but not great. I visited UVA and was a bit underwhelmed. Its still a nice atmosphere but a bit lacking compared to U of M or Northwestern.

Good luck to you. Nothing better than to work your best and achieve your goal.

aj144,
How is you academic year going so far?
I hope you are achieving your goals.