Chances in med school?

Hello,
due to personal circumstances, I had to transfer from a 4-year university where I had a VERY low gpa, a 2.4 to another 4 year university during my junior year where Ive maintained a 3.8 gpa. My MCAT score is 514. Based solely on this, do I have a chance? My gpa from my first university is what worries me.

Med school will take all your 4 years grades into consideration, unlike HS apply for college, some will ignore your first year records. Your chances are not good because the first two years of bad grade.
You are a good candidate for a med school sponsored SMP program, in that you are competing with their medical students. If you do well you could be admitted to a med school. You must be in the top 25% of the SMP class to qualify.